Scientifically grasping the overall trend of China's economic development
2026-04-28
The period of the 15th Five Year Plan is a crucial period for consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts to achieve socialist modernization. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the opening ceremony of the special seminar on studying and implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for provincial and ministerial level leading cadres: "When analyzing the situation, we must not only consider various factors comprehensively, but also be good at grasping some key factors such as the new changes in the international situation, the new round of scientific and technological revolution, and industrial transformation. We must have a global perspective, look far ahead, maintain strategic determination, carefully plan tactics, and continuously enhance the certainty and sustainability of China's development." Faced with the intensification of great power games, the escalation of local conflicts caused by geopolitical turmoil, and the accelerated transformation of new and old driving forces in China, we must scientifically grasp the general trend of China's economic development, adhere to systematic thinking and bottom line thinking, strengthen our confidence in development, maintain strategic determination, and deepen our understanding. Implementing the Outline of the 15th Five Year Plan, We will promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the quantity of the economy, and better promote Chinese path to modernization in an all-round way with high-quality development. The start of the 15th Five Year Plan is strong, and the endogenous driving force and stability of the economy continue to strengthen. This year is the beginning of the 15th Five Year Plan. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out: "We must fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement more proactive macro policies, promote the effective improvement of the quality and reasonable growth of the economy, maintain social harmony and stability, and strive to achieve a good start to the 15th Five Year Plan." In the first quarter of this year, facing complex and severe situations, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China timely increased macroeconomic regulation and control efforts, effectively responded to external changes, resolved external risks, and achieved a stable and steady start to the economy. This not only provides a solid foundation for achieving the expected development goals for the whole year, but also enhances our confidence in striving for better results in practical work. This achievement was achieved in a complex situation of increasing external shocks and challenges, as well as intertwined domestic dilemmas and difficulties, which is truly not easy. In recent years, China has focused on strengthening the construction of energy and resource production and reserve systems, vigorously promoting the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, and laying a solid foundation for resisting global energy supply shocks. Since the beginning of this year, China has fully leveraged its significant advantages of stable industrial and supply chains and strong supporting capabilities, actively responding to external environmental changes in response to the times and circumstances. Macro policies have been proactive and effective, with clear policy measures and strong operability. By focusing on expanding effective domestic demand, cultivating a complete domestic demand system, promoting a virtuous cycle of effective investment and potential consumption, and smoothing the mechanism of mutual promotion between employment, income, and consumption, China's gross domestic product grew by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year, ranking among the top economies; The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 84.7%, an increase of nearly 30 percentage points year-on-year, with significant improvements on both the supply and demand sides. On the demand side, the major engineering projects deployed in the "15th Five Year Plan" have been accelerated, and the investment in infrastructure construction and new momentum investment have been on the rise, driving the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) to increase from a decline in the first quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, 5.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of last year; The combination of holiday economy and policies to boost consumption has shown significant effects, with steady growth in employment and income supporting consumption recovery. Consumer formats such as sports and leisure are active, and new scenarios of intelligent and green services are accelerating; The quarterly growth rate of the total import and export value of goods trade has reached a new high in nearly 5 years. On the supply side, the agricultural production situation is relatively good; The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry has significantly accelerated, and the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size in the first quarter contributed more than 30% to the growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size; The deepening integration of modern service industry and advanced manufacturing industry empowers the real economy in various aspects such as research and development design, transportation and logistics, and financial services. This is not only the main reason for promoting a reasonable and moderate rebound in prices, but also a strong support for hedging against the impact of external uncertainty. Especially in the context of a high base in the first quarter of last year and a more complex and severe external environment this year, China's high-quality development is moving towards a new and better direction. This not only fully reflects the strong economic resilience, but also effectively refutes the fallacy of foreign media misreading the Chinese economy with facts and data, and better plays the role of a global economic stabilizer with the certainty of high-quality development. Looking ahead to the next five years, China's macroeconomic governance system will be further improved, the efficiency of macroeconomic governance will be significantly enhanced, and the endogenous driving force and stability of development will continue to strengthen. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, China will accelerate the formation of more economic development models driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth, promote close linkage between short-term and medium - to long-term development goals, and strive to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range. Looking at different fields, the ability of technological innovation will be significantly enhanced, and the overall efficiency of the innovation system will continue to improve, entering the stage of running parallel or even leading in more cutting-edge technological fields; The process of intelligent, green, and integrated manufacturing is accelerating, and the proportion of emerging and future industries in the real economy will continue to increase. Modern service industries such as digital economy, intelligent economy, health and elderly care, cultural and creative industries are becoming more diverse, and their driving force for economic growth is stronger; The green and low-carbon transformation of development mode will accelerate, the proportion of non fossil energy will steadily increase, traditional industries will have significant carbon reduction effects, and circular economy is expected to become a new growth point; Green, intelligent, and experiential consumption will be more favored, new consumption will drive the acceleration of new supply upgrading, and effective investment will accelerate the convergence towards new quality productivity; The resilience of external demand will be enhanced and the structure will be optimized. The export of new green and low-carbon products will maintain its advantage, and the proportion of digital and intelligent service trade will increase. Continuously enhancing important advantages and leveraging their synergistic integration effects is an important foundation for promoting sustained economic growth during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The outline of the 15th Five Year Plan proposes that "China's economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. The supporting conditions and basic trends for long-term improvement have not changed. The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super large market, the advantages of a complete industrial system, and the advantages of abundant human resources are more prominent." Better consolidating and enhancing these advantages, and synergistically exerting them, is the key to promoting the stable and long-term improvement of China's economy. The four major advantages have jointly built a solid foundation for China to continuously achieve new results in promoting high-quality development. Among them, the socialist system with Chinese characteristics has significant characteristics of concentrating efforts to accomplish major tasks and effectively responding to external risks and challenges. It can not only provide solid political and organizational guarantees for the country's long-term strategic planning, major scientific and technological breakthroughs, but also serve as a "set star" and "baton" for coordinating the other three major advantages and ensuring that development always moves in the right direction. A super large scale market not only provides a broad testing ground and value realization space for various new technologies and industries, which is conducive to diluting innovation costs and quickly forming economies of scale, but also can continuously attract global high-end factor resources with strong demand attraction, thus giving birth to and shaping more advanced industrial systems and talent structures. China has the most complete and largest industrial system in the world, with strong resilience and complete supporting facilities in the industrial and supply chains. This is not only a key carrier for transforming institutional efficiency and market potential into real productivity and realizing the full utilization of talents, but also a powerful support for the endogenous stability and shock resistance of the Chinese economy, enabling rapid industrialization of technological innovation achievements and better meeting the needs of the people for a better life. China has a large, high-level, and continuously improving team of scientists, engineers, and skilled workers, providing endogenous driving force for the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and the construction of a strong domestic market. The "four major advantages" are not isolated, but form an organic whole that promotes and relies on each other, forming a systematic advantage with clear levels and complementary functions. By promoting the "four advantages" with systematic thinking to play a synergistic effect, we can form a grand synergy to promote Chinese path to modernization. This is not only a profound summary of past development experience, but also the key to facing the future and winning strategic initiative. Comprehensively enhance synergy through institutional mechanisms that combine efficient markets with proactive governments. Efficient markets play a decisive role in resource allocation, competitive incentives, and demand pull; To create a stable, fair, and predictable development environment for the government through strategic planning, infrastructure investment, and basic research support. By deepening reforms, breaking down barriers that restrict the release of market potential, smooth industrial circulation, and the emergence of talent vitality, and deepening the construction of a unified national market, we will further leverage institutional advantages and improve the collaborative allocation efficiency of various factor resources. Deepen collaboration through a circular incentive mechanism that integrates education, technology, and talent deployment. The national strategic needs and industrial development needs jointly determine the direction of scientific and technological research and the focus of talent cultivation. Through a high-quality education system, forward-looking scientific research layout, and deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, strategic talents and urgently needed talents can be cultivated and gathered. The innovative achievements of talents are expanded in the industry and rewarded in the market, further stimulating the emergence of more talents and improving efficiency, forming a positive cycle, and injecting intellectual resources into the consolidation of institutional and market advantages and the enhancement of industrial advantages. Strengthen collaboration through a benign interactive mechanism of demand driven supply and supply created demand. The diversified and upgraded demands of the ultra large scale market provide traction and substantial returns for enterprise technological innovation and product iteration. At the same time, a complete industrial system can quickly respond and create new market demands, promoting the formation of a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand. This can continuously transform market advantages into endogenous driving forces for industrial upgrading. Expand collaboration through a fully open and win-win ecological mechanism. By opening up to the outside world at a high level and actively integrating into the international circulation, we can utilize global factor resources to deepen domestic market division of labor, enhance the status of the industrial system, attract world-class talents, and promote high-level institutional opening, perfect market rules, and improve talent quality in international competition and cooperation. This will make the main position of the domestic circulation more stable, and enhance the synergistic effect of the "four major advantages" in a broader space. The outline of the "15th Five Year Plan" proposes to consolidate the development trend of China's economy towards new, high, and excellent directions: "Maintain strategic determination, enhance confidence in victory, and actively recognize and adapt to changes. Overall, the development opportunities in China during the 15th Five Year Plan period outweigh the challenges. The key is to seize opportunities, enhance advantages, expand victories, promote various policies to work together and form synergy, better safeguard people's livelihoods and enhance industrial competitiveness, consolidate the development trend of China's economy towards new heights and excellence, and inject more stabilizing forces into global economic growth. The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating, and we must seize innovation opportunities to achieve breakthroughs and breakthroughs. Currently, the competition among major countries around the innovation high ground is unprecedentedly intensifying, and the global industrial and supply chains are shifting from prioritizing efficiency to emphasizing both safety and efficiency, presenting regional and diversified characteristics. This further highlights the necessity and urgency of China's independent and controllable economy, its ascent towards higher heights, and its transformation towards digital intelligence. To this end, it is necessary to highlight the construction of a solid foundation for the real economy, focus on building a modern industrial system, accelerate high-level technological self-reliance and self-improvement, and cultivate and strengthen new quality productive forces to better meet the needs of the people for a better life. Strengthen original innovation and key core technology research and development, enhance systematic innovation capabilities, consolidate and improve the competitiveness of advantageous industries, accelerate the development of emerging industries and new industries
Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Jiajia
Source:people.cn
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