Security reassessment combined with new economic data highlights China's asset confidence
2026-04-21
Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the first quarter national economic data. Data shows that in the face of multiple challenges such as the complex evolution of the international environment and domestic transformation pressure, the national economy started well and improved in quality and efficiency in the first quarter. In the eyes of industry insiders, the enormous potential and resilience demonstrated by China's economic fundamentals provide strong confidence for Chinese assets. A series of key data indicators reflect the gradual improvement of supply and demand in the Chinese economy in the first quarter, with a stable and positive trend. According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product in the first quarter increased by 5.0% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 6.1% year-on-year, which was 1.1 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year. The added value of the service industry increased by 5.2% year-on-year. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Faced with the global financial market turbulence caused by the intensification of international geopolitical conflicts, strong economic fundamentals are becoming the most solid foundation for Chinese assets. Data shows that since March, compared to the significant fluctuations in markets such as Japan and South Korea, the resilience of the A-share market has been significantly stronger, with the ChiNext Index reaching a new high in nearly a decade. The exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has also remained strong, reaching a new high since March 2023. Industry insiders point out that in the face of increasing global uncertainty, Chinese assets have demonstrated strong stability advantages. Fu Lichun, Financial Committee Member of the China Society for Market Regulation, told reporters that in the face of external shocks, the core advantages of Chinese assets are "stability" and "controllability". On the one hand, China's economic structure is more inclined towards domestic demand support, and it is relatively controllable from external shocks in global turbulence; On the other hand, policy space still exists, and there is room for adjustment in both fiscal and monetary policies. In addition, the current overall valuation is not high, so there is already a safety cushion. When global uncertainty rises, Chinese assets are more like a "relatively controllable volatility and bottom line" allocation option, which is attractive to long-term funds. From the perspective of valuation level, the A-share market still has a relative advantage. The latest research from Huaxi Securities shows that as of April 17th, the PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index were 17.12 times, 34.81 times, and 42.55 times, respectively. In contrast, the PE of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are 29.61 times, 41.66 times, and 29.23 times, respectively, all significantly higher than the historical median since 2010. Li Huiyong, General Manager of the Yangtze River Elderly Care Research Department, told reporters that under the promotion of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, the expectation of China's economic stabilization and recovery continues to increase, and the pattern of maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity has not changed. The reform and development of the capital market itself has further enhanced the endogenous stabilizing power of the market. He believes that internal factors are the fundamental factors that determine the direction of the Chinese market and asset prices, and these factors constitute the support for Chinese asset prices. Changes in the external environment may change the pace of the market, but will not change the fundamental trend of China's asset price revaluation. Galaxy Securities believes that in an era of frequent geopolitical conflicts, increasing supply chain vulnerabilities, and a shift from efficiency first to security first global order, Chinese assets are beginning to face a reassessment of security. Compared to most economies, China has stronger internal buffering capacity and greater policy maneuvering space. The security capabilities demonstrated by China today are based on its long-term adherence, forward-looking layout, and systematic promotion of "coordinated development and security" in top-level design. On the other hand, the continuously growing new driving forces in the Chinese economy provide new reasons for the upward trend of China's asset price center. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 12.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate 3.5 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year. From an industry perspective, the added value of industries such as integrated circuit manufacturing, aircraft manufacturing, electronic industry specialized equipment manufacturing, and biopharmaceutical product manufacturing increased by 49.4%, 27.3%, 24.8%, and 16.4%, respectively. From a product perspective, the rapid development of "artificial intelligence+" has driven the production of storage chips, semiconductor storage disks, and other products to increase by 43.5% and 15.9% respectively; New economic growth points such as embodied intelligence and human-machine collaboration have helped the rapid development of the robotics field, with the production of products such as robot reducers and industrial robots increasing by 91.2% and 33.2% respectively. Galaxy Securities believes that a core reason for the overall undervaluation of Chinese assets by overseas funds in the past is that the market has formed a strong growth discount on the Chinese economy, and is accustomed to using the old growth model to regress and linearly extrapolate the future of the Chinese economy. In fact, the growth anchor of the Chinese economy is undergoing a historic shift, and the suppression of the overall economy by the clearance of the old growth model is approaching its bottom. Chinese assets are gradually rebuilding their growth structure, financing structure, and wealth allocation structure. From the perspective of the market value and industry proportion of A-share listed companies, the market value proportion of listed companies in the new quality productivity related industries continues to rise. The capital market is repricing the future growth mode of the Chinese economy, and the market is beginning to recognize China's enormous potential to leap from a "world factory" to a "smart manufacturing powerhouse". According to research by CITIC Securities, the disruption of the global supply chain once again presents an opportunity to verify China's advantageous manufacturing pricing power. From a stylistic perspective, the Middle East conflict is the catalyst for this year's style shift. Against the backdrop of rising global costs and weakened financial conditions, undervaluation and pricing power are the two most important factors; From the perspective of industry trends, the expansion of code and scarcity of physical goods are reflected in the increasing pricing power of advantageous manufacturing industries in China. The acceleration of disruptive innovation by AI and the disruption of global energy supply chains are strengthening this trend. (New Society)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Economic Information Daily
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