The economy started strongly in the first quarter, and high-frequency data such as offline consumption rebounded
2026-04-08
The reporter learned from the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission that multiple high-frequency data show that China's economy started well and strongly in the first quarter of this year. Among them, the offline consumption payment amount in the first quarter increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a growth rate 2.2 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. The growth rate of electronic products and household appliances was relatively fast. In terms of investment, the winning bid amount for projects related to computing infrastructure construction and software and hardware development increased by 4.7% year-on-year in the first quarter. In the first quarter, driven by factors such as holidays and the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods, both social consumer goods retail and service consumption showed a good upward trend. According to big data on offline consumption, the payment amount for offline consumption increased by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a growth rate 2.2 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Specifically, commodity consumption increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a growth rate 3.2 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, electronic products and household appliances grew rapidly, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.7% and 8.4%, respectively, with growth rates 2.4 and 23.5 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter, service consumption increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate 0.5 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, transportation services and catering services grew rapidly, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.9% and 4.5%, respectively, with growth rates 2.0 and 1.7 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. Xing Yuguan, an associate researcher of the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the first quarter of 2026, China's offline consumption showed a good start with a steady total and optimized structure, especially the strong demand for household appliances, digital products and other consumer products, which is the result of the precise efforts of policies such as the ultra long term special treasury bond to support the exchange of old for new consumer goods, and the optimization of personal consumption loan discount. With the continuous effectiveness of policies to promote consumption, the consumer market is expected to further increase in quantity and quality, and move towards new and better directions. In terms of investment, proactive fiscal policies and concentrated construction of major projects provide support for investment growth. In the first quarter, the winning bid amount for projects related to computing infrastructure construction and software and hardware development increased by 4.7% year-on-year. The amount of capital investment events in cutting-edge fields such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots increased by 45.5% year-on-year. According to calculations by the National Information Center, the amount of newly issued special bonds in China increased by 20.8% year-on-year in the first quarter. ”Xing Yuguan said that since the beginning of this year, the policy of stabilizing investment has been put in the forefront, the funding arrangement has focused on key areas and weak links, major engineering projects have accelerated their landing, and investment in intelligent economy related fields such as artificial intelligence and computing power has been active, which not only laid a good foundation for the stable growth of fixed assets investment and the macro economy this year, but also provided strong support for the construction of major projects in the "15th Five Year Plan" to start well and take a good step. It is worth noting that experts also pointed out that the pace of economic operation and economic data in the first quarter were disrupted by the "Spring Festival wrong month" factor. According to Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Institute at Yuekai Securities, the late Spring Festival this year has led to an overall shift in the cycle of "rush work before the holiday, suspension of work during the Spring Festival, and resumption of work after the holiday", technically pushing up the year-on-year data for January and February, while the data for March may be under pressure. For example, from the perspective of high-frequency indicators, the cement shipping rate reflecting the activity of engineering construction was higher from January to early February than the same period last year, and lower from late February to March than the same period last year. We should fully consider the disturbance effect of the Spring Festival factors and combine observation and analysis from January to March to more objectively evaluate the real trend and endogenous momentum of economic operation at the beginning of the year. While the domestic demand market is heating up, China's foreign trade is also maintaining a growth momentum. In the first quarter, the departure and arrival load of major port cargo ships increased by 9.6% and 5.4% respectively year-on-year, with growth rates increasing by 23.4 and 7.0 percentage points respectively compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The daily average port cargo and container throughput increased by 2.4% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, with growth rates 1.6 and 1.4 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of last year. High frequency data also shows that in the first quarter, the start-up business vitality index and the technology innovation enterprise business vitality index increased by 8.8% and 8.1% year-on-year, respectively. Of particular note is the active innovation in the field of artificial intelligence. According to patent data, the number of patent authorizations related to strategic emerging industries in China increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, and by 18.4% year-on-year in March; Among them, the number of patent authorizations related to artificial intelligence increased by 31.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, and by 39.8% year-on-year in March, indicating a continuous enhancement of innovation vitality. (New Society)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Economic Information Daily
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