According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on April 7th, as of the end of March 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to $3342.1 billion, a decrease of $85.7 billion or 2.5% from the end of February. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated that in March 2026, due to factors such as the global macro environment, monetary policies of major economies, and expectations, the US dollar index rose and prices of major financial assets worldwide fell. The combined effect of exchange rate conversion and asset price changes resulted in a decrease in the scale of foreign exchange reserves for the month. According to Guan Tao, Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities, the US dollar index continues to strengthen due to factors such as the global macro environment, monetary policies of major economies, and expectations. After three months, it has once again reached the 100 level, with a cumulative increase of 2.4% to 99.96 for the whole month. The prices of non US dollar currencies and global financial assets have overall declined, with the hedged global bond index denominated in US dollars falling by 1.8% and the S&P 500 stock index falling by 5.1%. In March, the Middle East conflict continued to escalate, and crude oil exports were hindered, leading to an increase in crude oil prices and a general decline in global asset prices. The rise in oil prices has raised inflation expectations, and the market has even begun to bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. With the dual support of higher interest rates for a longer period of time and the return of safe haven funds, the US dollar index continues to strengthen. ”Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated. In addition, in terms of asset price changes, Pang Ming, a specially appointed senior researcher at the National Laboratory of Finance and Development, pointed out that due to the impact of the global macro environment and the expected monetary policies of major economies, the volatility of major global markets has intensified, and the prices of various major financial assets have generally fallen. The US dollar, as a safe haven asset, has rebounded. Overall, the decline of 85.7 billion US dollars is largely influenced by the 'accounting treatment' of the volatile global financial markets. Looking ahead, Pang Ming believes that despite significant fluctuations in monthly data, the overall size of China's foreign exchange reserves remains stable above 3.3 trillion US dollars, demonstrating strong resilience against external shocks. From a macro fundamental perspective, with the continuous upgrading of domestic industries and the export of high value-added products such as the 'new three types', China's current account surplus will continue to play a' ballast stone 'role, providing a source of vitality for the stability of foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the safe haven nature of RMB assets has become increasingly prominent in a volatile environment, and the trend of medium - to long-term foreign investment inflows has not reversed. ”Pang Ming stated. Wen Bin pointed out that in the next stage, exports will continue to play a fundamental role in international balance of payments. Since the beginning of the year, China's export performance has far exceeded expectations. This is not only a reflection of strong external demand, but also a result of the diversification of China's export market and the upgrading of its export commodity structure. Against the backdrop of the impact of oil prices on the global supply chain, China's advantages in new energy manufacturing and the entire industry chain will be further highlighted. "Wen Bin said that in terms of cross-border capital flow, with the continuous expansion of China's service industry access and the steady deepening of institutional opening up, the level of cross-border investment and financing facilitation will continue to improve, and foreign direct investment will maintain stable operation; At the same time, the valuation advantage and allocation value of RMB assets are highlighted, and securities investment is expected to continue to flow in at a reasonable scale. Pang Ming predicts that in the future, the scale of foreign exchange reserves will continue to remain generally stable amidst fluctuations, sufficient to support national financial security and the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level. (New Society)