According to data released by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on March 31, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range in March, reaching 50.4%. According to expert analysis, various industries have accelerated their resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, and the prosperity of the manufacturing and construction industries has significantly improved. The continued efforts of policies have further demonstrated their effectiveness, and the level of China's economic prosperity has rebounded. The manufacturing industry rebounded and operated well in March. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday has basically subsided, and enterprises have resumed work and production comprehensively. The demand for the manufacturing market has been well released, and the market activity has increased. The manufacturing industry is expanding simultaneously at both ends of production and demand. The sub item data shows that the production index and new order index are 51.4% and 51.6% respectively, up 1.8 and 3.0 percentage points from February, both rising to the expansion range. External demand has significantly improved, with a new export order index of 49.1%, up 4.1 percentage points from February. Zhang Liqun, a special analyst at China Logistics Information Center, believes that the significant rebound in PMI in March is not only due to seasonal factors, but also indicates a significant increase in confidence in the Chinese economy from all aspects. The production index and procurement volume index have significantly rebounded, reflecting the trend of active production activities in enterprises; The order index and price index have significantly rebounded, reflecting a trend towards active market trading activity. From an industry perspective, the PMI for equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 51.5% and 50.8%, respectively, both rising to the expansion range. The PMI of high-tech manufacturing industry is 52.1%, which has been above the critical point for 14 consecutive months, and the industry's development trend continues to improve. The production activities of new kinetic energy continue to steadily increase. ”According to Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, the employment index of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries both rose to nearly 50% in March, significantly higher than the overall manufacturing industry, indicating a stable recovery of new energy employees and an optimization of employment structure. Large enterprises are steadily expanding, while small and medium-sized enterprises are stabilizing their operations. Data shows that in March, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, indicating a stable and slightly upward trend in the economic situation; The PMI for small and medium-sized enterprises was 49.0% and 49.3% respectively, an increase of 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points from February, indicating a significant improvement in the economic situation. The price level of petrochemical related industries has risen, and the overall market price level of the manufacturing industry has significantly rebounded. In March, the purchasing price index and ex factory price index of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry were 63.9% and 55.4%, respectively, an increase of 9.1 and 4.8 percentage points from February. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that this is mainly due to factors such as the sustained rise in prices of some bulk commodities and the acceleration of corporate procurement activities in recent times. From an industry perspective, the purchase price index and factory price index of industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products are both higher than 70.0%, and the overall level of purchase and sales prices in related industries has increased significantly. The changes in the Middle East situation in March have caused disruptions to the operation of the global energy supply chain, and have also had an impact on the prices of raw materials for China's manufacturing industry. Among them, the cost increase in the petrochemical industry is relatively significant and is transmitted to the middle and lower reaches through the supply chain. ”Wen Tao stated. The survey results of the National Bureau of Statistics also show that due to factors such as the current geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the prices of related raw materials such as petroleum and chemical have risen significantly, coupled with the increase in logistics freight rates. In March, the proportion of enterprises reflecting high raw material and logistics costs increased compared to the previous month. Wen Tao believes that there is still significant uncertainty in the current situation in the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the trend of relevant industry price indices in the future. The macro policies have shown significant effects. In March, the non manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from February, indicating an improvement in the non manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The service industry business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from February. After the Spring Festival, investment in infrastructure construction and activities related to productive services were launched, driving the overall prosperity level of non manufacturing industries. ”China Logistics Information Center analyst Wu Wei said. The index of business activities in the construction industry has improved. In March, the business activity index of the construction industry was 49.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from February. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told Shanghai Securities News reporters that the rebound of the construction industry's business activity index is in line with seasonal patterns, mainly due to the gradual resumption of construction projects in various regions after the holiday. However, the index is still in a contraction range, which is influenced by the adjustment of the real estate market and also indicates that the overall investment growth momentum still needs to be further strengthened. In March, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%. Several experts believe that overall, under the combined effects of strong exports, rapid development of new energy industries, and the implementation of stable growth policies at the beginning of the year, the manufacturing PMI, non manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index have all risen to the expansion range, and China's economic prosperity has rebounded. The rebound of PMI data shows that the effectiveness of policies being implemented earlier is evident. The State Council executive meeting held on March 13th called for "advancing efforts, improving quality and efficiency, and implementing practical and effective policy measures". Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that fiscal policy is being pushed forward, and the progress of issuing new special bonds in the first quarter is significantly faster than in 2024 and 2025. In addition, the policy of expanding domestic demand is gradually being implemented, and structural adjustment has become a key focus. Looking ahead to the next stage, with the gradual implementation and effectiveness of various policies, as well as the accumulation of endogenous momentum, China's economy is expected to continue to maintain a stable development trend. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the situation in the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the potential impact it may bring through energy supply, external demand, prices, and financial channels. ”Wen Bin said. (New Society)