The modern industrial system is the material and technological basis of Chinese path to modernization. The second part of the "15th Five Year Plan" outline has made a special deployment on "building a modern industrial system", proposing to "forward-looking layout of future industries", "target and lead key areas of future development, and build a full chain cultivation system for future industries". The future industry is the strategic emerging industry of tomorrow and the pillar industry of the future. It is not only an important component of the current modern industrial system, but also a key variable that affects the future development of the modern industrial system. Building a modern industrial system requires addressing current issues such as unreasonable industrial structure, low development quality, bottlenecks, and short links in industrial and supply chains. On the other hand, it is also necessary to focus on the long term and plan for future industries based on technological development trends and market demand changes. The important role of prospective layout of future industries in the modern industrial system The modern industrial system has the basic characteristics of integrity, progressiveness and security, and the characteristics of the era of intelligence, greening and integration. Technological innovation is the core force driving industrial development. With continuous breakthroughs in technology, the composition of the industrial system is also constantly evolving and changing. Therefore, forward-looking layout of future industries plays an important role in the formation and continuous evolution of modern industrial systems. The future industry is driven by breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies and disruptive innovation, and will achieve large-scale industrialization of new technologies in the coming period, forming emerging industries that have tremendous support and driving effects on the national economy. Although the current product prototype development is in its early stages and is moving towards engineering and commercial promotion, with immature technology, incomplete functionality and performance, high costs, unclear application scenarios, and small user and production scales, after a period of technological iteration, market validation, and supply chain improvement, disruptive technologies are expected to form products with large production scales and transform into strategic emerging industries with high growth and scale. For example, photovoltaic modules and new energy vehicles were in their early stages of development about 20 years ago, with immature technologies and small industrial scales. However, they have now become important industries driving economic growth and new growth points for exports. Although the future industry has high uncertainty in terms of technological routes, application scenarios, etc., it is difficult to accurately predict whether the specific technological route or the new products formed by it will ultimately achieve commercial success and grow into a completely new industry. But the development prospects of a certain type of new technology and its formation of new products can be roughly judged from the functions of new technology, general human needs, and other aspects. The outline of the 15th Five Year Plan proposes future industrial fields such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth generation mobile communication. Due to its considerable scale and high growth rate, future industries or strategic emerging industries formed by their transformation will have significant support and driving effects on the national economy, and their high-tech, high growth, strategic, and green characteristics are in line with the trend of industrial development, and will become an important component of the modern industrial system. The future industry is born from disruptive technological innovation, and countries around the world are on a similar starting line. This means that there are no incumbents in the industry, and it is a completely new blue ocean market. In traditional industries, developed countries have already used their control over core technologies to form patent and standard barriers, and long-term brand building to form market barriers. Developing countries face difficulties in changing the market pattern, and future industries provide opportunities for developing countries to overtake. But at the same time, it should be noted that the strategic nature of future industries means that they are the focus of competition among countries around the world. In order to grasp the discourse and leadership of key emerging industries in the future period, and better play their driving role in economic and social development, major countries around the world have increased their layout of future industries. Although it may take 5 years or even longer for the future industrial transformation to form strategic emerging industries, if we do not plan ahead and increase investment in technological innovation, engineering exploration, and scenario verification, we may miss development opportunities and fall into a state of being controlled by others after entering large-scale industrialization. The future industry is a key force driving the modernization of the industrial system. It will not only form large-scale and rapidly growing industries through the commercialization and industrialization of disruptive technologies, but also become an important component of the modern industrial system. Through mechanisms such as association, combination, and empowerment, it will promote comprehensive and profound changes in the industrial system, leading to higher quality development. One is the correlation effect. Although the core driving technologies for future industries are new, it does not mean that a single technology can be transformed into products and industries. The product architecture or production delivery process of modern industries are highly complex and require input from multiple industries. For example, the training of large-scale artificial intelligence models not only requires breakthroughs in algorithms, but also physical support from GPU chips, memory, and the power industry. Its widespread application also relies on widely covered communication networks and storage, computing infrastructure, and widely used intelligent terminals. As an investment in future industries, it is usually not necessary to directly provide existing products to future industry enterprises, but to innovate based on the characteristics and needs of new technologies and products, which often involves activities such as product redesign and production line transformation. Therefore, the future development of industries will drive the upgrading and growth of existing industries through the "input-output" linkage. The second is the combination effect. The various industries of the national economy are closely interconnected, and a product often contains components ranging from tens to millions, with inputs from a range of industries. When the future industry develops and grows, its technology and products may also become important inputs for other industries, causing changes in product architecture, production processes, business models, and other aspects of industries that use these new technologies. For example, with the maturity of artificial intelligence technology, networking and intelligence have become important functions of many household appliances and home products. The third is the empowerment effect. Unlike the correlation effect, the empowerment effect refers to a technology that can cause significant systemic or even disruptive changes in other industries. The future industries contain general-purpose technologies, which are characterized by their ability to be widely applied and undergo sustained change in other industrial fields. For example, the use of power batteries, motors, and electronic control systems in electrification has changed the product structure of traditional fuel vehicles, which mainly consists of engines and transmissions. This not only restructures the product architecture, supply chain, business model, and infrastructure of the automotive industry, but also profoundly changes the traditional competitive landscape of the automotive industry. Developing future industries requires handling several pairs of relationships. Prospective layout of future industries is an important part of building a modern industrial system in China. In the specific implementation process, the following pairs of relationships should be handled well. One is the relationship between innovation driven and demand driven. The future industry is driven by breakthroughs in cutting-edge and disruptive technologies, and its development also requires continuous innovation to improve performance, reduce costs, and enrich functionality. But new technologies need to gain market recognition in order to bring sustained cash flow and profits to enterprises, support technological iteration, capacity expansion, and market development. Therefore, it is necessary to attach great importance to market access for new products, development of new scenarios, and support for users. The second is the relationship between basic research and industrial innovation. Disruptive technologies, as the fundamental driving force behind the emergence of future industries, are the result of basic research. With the significant shortening of the transformation cycle of basic research and the shift of international technological competition towards the forefront of basic research, it is necessary to increase investment in basic research to lead the development of future industries. The process of transforming new technologies into engineering and industrialization still requires continuous improvement, therefore, incremental innovation in industrial common technologies and product development, process improvement, and other industrialization processes involved in specific production processes is also very important. The third is the relationship between long-term effort and dynamic adjustment. The technological and commercial maturity of future industries is low, and it will take a long period of time to enter the stage of industrial transformation, where results can be seen in terms of added value, tax revenue, and corporate profits. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on continuous investment and draw a blueprint to the end. But we also need to see the dynamism of future industrial development. Some future industries have matured and entered the ranks of strategic emerging industries, and new disruptive technologies will give rise to new future industries. Therefore, the strategic layout of future industries needs to be dynamically adjusted, and adaptive support policies should be adopted for different stages of future industrial development. The fourth is the relationship between efficient markets and capable governments. The future industry has high uncertainty in terms of technological routes, application scenarios, etc., which means it is difficult to accurately plan them. It is necessary to mobilize the enthusiasm of various enterprises, scientists, engineers, and users to explore trial and error. The more micro subjects involved, the easier it is to find feasible technological routes and application scenarios. At the same time, due to the significant positive externalities of technological innovation, the industrialization cycle of future industries is long and the risks are high. Therefore, the government needs to play an active role in technology investment, market activation, and other aspects. At the same time, it is necessary to establish and improve institutional mechanisms that are suitable for future industrial development, such as future industrial investment growth and risk sharing mechanisms, explore diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market supervision rules. The fifth aspect is the relationship between top-level design and local exploration. Since its inclusion in the 14th Five Year Plan, planning for the development of future industries has become an important industrial development strategy in China. In 2024, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Innovative Development of Future Industries" to systematically plan for future industries; Some provincial and municipal governments have also formulated local future industrial development plans or systematic measures. It is crucial to mobilize local enthusiasm to form a joint force for future industrial development. However, each region should focus on selecting future industrial segments or links in the industrial chain based on its own resource endowment, technology, and industrial advantages, in order to avoid greed for the bigger picture and causing low-level reconstruction and "internal competition" in future industrial fields. The relationship between independent controllability and open development. Countries around the world are looking forward to laying out future industries with the aim of seizing the dominant position in global technology and industrial competition. Our country's future industrial development should attach great importance to the innovation and control of key core technologies, ensuring that the development of future industries is not subject to others. At the same time, the future development of industries requires support from various aspects such as global scientific research, supply chain, application markets, as well as funding and talent. It is necessary to establish global technical standards and governance rules, and continuously deepen international cooperation in scientific research, technological innovation, supply chain support, market applications, technical standards, and governance rules. Author: Li Xiaohua (Researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)