Since the beginning of the year, various "Claw" intelligent agents (commonly known as "lobsters") have swept across various industries. Compared to the familiar big models, the biggest feature of "Lobster" is its ability to "work". For example, you can instruct it to "send me a PDF version of the 24-hour domestic and international news every morning at 8 o'clock", so it acts like your news secretary, submitting tasks on time at 8 o'clock every day. Tesla founder Elon Musk recently predicted in a public speech that artificial intelligence may replace all human jobs. "In the most ideal scenario, we may no longer need to work. We will not only have a universal basic income, but also a universal high income. There will be no shortage of goods and services." Although this description is somewhat sci-fi or even utopian, many people are indeed worried about whether they will one day lose their jobs. With the rapid implementation and application of artificial intelligence, which professions of humans will be replaced? The current mainstream views can be summarized into two types: iteration theory and substitution theory. Some experts also believe that these two viewpoints still remain within the old thinking framework, and the truly more fundamental and long-term answer is the third perspective - the theory of the new generation. Iteration theory "is an optimistic view based on historical experience, with the core viewpoint that AI will replace jobs, but will not replace overall human employment; Old positions disappear, and new positions will emerge on a larger scale. Humans are only upgrading their careers and transferring their structures, not being eliminated. Because based on historical experience, technology has always been about "replacing jobs and creating industries". The steam engine eliminated handmade textiles, but created factories, engineers, logistics, and trade; Automobiles replaced carriage drivers, but created drivers, mechanics, 4S stores, highways, the oil industry, and insurance; Computers eliminated typists and accountants, but created programmers, product managers, operations personnel, and data analysts. With every technological revolution, the total employment volume has increased instead of decreased, but the structure has changed. AI is essentially a 'tool', not an 'independent subject'. AI can only improve efficiency and amplify human capabilities, and cannot completely replace human decision-making, responsibility, ethics, emotions, and creativity. New professions will definitely break out, but we can't predict in advance now. Just like before the advent of the Internet, we didn't know that there would be "anchors", "we media", "cross-border e-commerce" and "data announcers". The era of AI is bound to emerge: the number of new professions such as AI trainers, robot maintainers, digital identity specialists, and AI psychological companions often far exceeds the number of disappearing old professions. The irreplaceability of humans remains extremely strong. For example, in fields that require complex decision-making such as law, healthcare, and investment, in positions that require emotions and trust such as teachers, doctors, nursing, and psychological counseling, in jobs that require creativity and aesthetics such as art, literature, strategy, and branding, and in scenarios that require on-site response and safety control such as military and police, first aid, and high-risk operations, we still need "people" present. AI can only assist and cannot replace. The "substitution theory" is a pessimistic view, which believes that AI is not a tool upgrade, but the birth of new intelligent agents. It simultaneously replaces human "physical and intellectual" abilities, and historical experience becomes ineffective, leading to widespread and permanent unemployment of humanity. In the technological revolution of history, steam engines replaced the physical strength of humans and animals, electricity replaced energy and processes, computers replaced memory and computation, and AI replaced human "cognition, judgment, learning, and creation" itself. Previous technologies were meant to extend human capabilities, but this time they are meant to replicate human abilities. AI is not just replacing positions, but directly replacing the "task chain": in the past, machines could only perform a single action, just like lathes could only turn parts; Nowadays, AI can complete the entire process: writing copy → drawing → editing → advertising → data analysis → optimization. The work done by one person can be eaten up by AI throughout the entire process. It's not losing one position, it's losing one industry chain. The speed of creating new professions cannot keep up with the pace of substitution. The "substitution theory" acknowledges the existence of new professions, but emphasizes that the disappearance of old positions is fast, fierce, and widespread, and may occur within a few months or years; And the birth of new positions is slow, narrow, and has a high threshold, which may take decades. During this period, there will be a huge unemployment vacuum that ordinary people cannot withstand. Capital does not need so many "ordinary people". In the past, factories needed a lot of workers, and the Internet needed a lot of white-collar workers. In the future, "a few elites+AI+robots" will be able to handle the entire society's production. The labor force of ordinary people is no longer a scarce resource, and society no longer needs so many people to work. A large number of people permanently withdraw from the labor market and have no job to transfer. The "New Generation Theory" is a perspective that goes beyond the previous two and redefines "profession," "labor," and "value. AI is neither simply replacing jobs nor creating new ones, but rather driving humanity from "tool based survival" to "free and comprehensive development", ushering in a new generation of human civilization. This viewpoint holds that AI is not meant to replace human work, but to enable people to live as free, complete, and fully developed individuals. Apple CEO Tim Cook recently visited an art space in Chaoyang, Beijing to learn about the latest applications of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence in traditional cultural preservation and inheritance, such as mural restoration. He said: "Artificial intelligence is one of the most far-reaching things in our lives. In our view, artificial intelligence is the amplification of human capabilities, rather than the replacement of human beings." He added: "I think we should put down our fear, start using it in our daily life, and think about how it can help you, how to make you more efficient, and how to help you share some of the work at hand. Each of us needs more happiness in life, and some of the things we are doing can not bring happiness, perhaps artificial intelligence can help us share these things." From the agricultural age to the industrial age, to today's intelligent Internet age, human occupation has gone through three stages In the agricultural era, people were "domesticated" and were slaves of land and physical strength. They spent their whole lives in order to survive; In the industrial era, people were objectified, componentized, and instrumentalized, becoming accessories to machines, consumables for assembly lines, and labor for capital; In the era of AI, people are expected to truly return to being human. AI is not simply replacing a certain profession, but systematically taking over the following tasks: repetitive, mechanical, standardized execution, tedious, time-consuming, and low creativity processes, high-intensity, high-risk physical labor, quantifiable, codeable, and replicable mental labor. These jobs have been replaced by AI, not as' unemployment ', but as the first opportunity for humanity to no longer have to work just to' survive '. Iteration theory and substitution theory still remain in the industrial civilization thinking of "humans must rely on their profession to survive": one believes in continuing to be a tool worker in a different position, while the other fears losing their position and losing their value. The theory of the new generation breaks away from the "employment game" and returns to the fundamental direction of human civilization: people are becoming increasingly free and well-rounded individuals. Therefore, the difference between the three viewpoints is that "iteration theory" holds that in job iteration, people are still tools; The 'substitution theory' worries about job disappearance and people being abandoned; The 'New Generation Theory' believes in transcending positions and returning to being human. The "New Generation Theory" attempts to redefine "labor", "profession", and "value": labor will shift from "means of livelihood" to "self actualization", and humans will no longer work for survival, but act for love, creation, and meaning; Fixed positions have been significantly weakened, and "lifelong careers" are gradually disappearing. People define themselves as free identities and temporary value creation, no longer being held hostage by positions; The value of a person is no longer determined by salary, position, and efficiency, but by creativity, emotions, aesthetics, thoughts, personality, and spirit. Human beings themselves are the highest value. Human beings have transitioned from the stage of seeking survival and efficiency to the stage of seeking meaning, aesthetics, and spiritual sublimation. What AI brings is not a wave of unemployment, but the comprehensive explosion of free time, the complete liberation of free personality, and the possibility of comprehensive human development. As Cook said, artificial intelligence should share the "unhappy" work for people. For a long time, our anxiety about 'work' has essentially been a confusion about the 'meaning of existence'. Iteration theory and substitution theory are both answering how AI can change professions; And the new generation theory answers how AI can achieve humanity. AI has the potential to return time, energy, dignity, and freedom to everyone. This will be a civilization upgrade. Of course, in an era where AI undertakes the majority of labor, most humans do not need to "work", everyone has sufficient income, and there is no shortage of goods and services, how should the relationship between each person and the government, market, and society be restructured? This will become a major proposition in the era of intelligent Internet. (New Society)