Recently, topics such as "This year and the next two years may become the hottest years in history" and "The Earth may face a super strong El Ni ñ o phenomenon" have become popular on the internet, attracting public attention. There are also media reports that the super strong El Ni ñ o phenomenon can disrupt the global climate, not only causing extreme heat, floods, droughts and other disasters, but also further pushing up global temperatures, leading to a historic high in summer temperatures this year and next year. In response to these claims, the reporter interviewed relevant experts from the China Meteorological Administration. What is' Super El Ni ñ o '? Will it really appear this year? What impact does it have on our Congress? Let's first take a look at the probability of entering El Ni ñ o this year? Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from multiple domestic and international climate models, the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration has concluded that the La Ni ñ a state is approaching its end and will enter a neutral state in the future. In the future, the sea surface temperature in the tropical Middle East Pacific will continue to rise, and it may enter an El Ni ñ o state in the late spring of this year. According to Zhi Rong, the chief forecaster of the Climate Prediction Office of the National Climate Center, based on historical statistics, the probability of entering El Ni ñ o state after the end of La Ni ñ a event is about one-third. There are differences in the specific timing of El Ni ñ o predicted by multiple international models, with the earliest being in April this year and the latest being in late summer and early autumn. For example, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts predicts April, Australia predicts May, the Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June, and American experts vote to predict July September. Overall, there is a high possibility that the equatorial Middle East Pacific will be in an El Ni ñ o state in the second half of this year, but it is currently impossible to accurately predict its specific formation time and overall intensity. Overall, there are still significant differences in the results of multiple climate prediction models internationally, and a consensus has not yet been formed. Therefore, it is too early to conclude that a "super El Ni ñ o" will occur this year. What factors affect the magnitude of warming caused by El Ni ñ o? It may enter an El Ni ñ o state in the late spring of this year, but its specific formation time and overall intensity cannot be accurately predicted. Therefore, experts say that it is too early to determine a super El Ni ñ o at this time, and some information on topics such as "hottest years" and "extreme weather" on the internet may be exaggerated or taken out of context. Let's take a look at the factors that affect the warming amplitude and extreme weather performance caused by El Ni ñ o? Zhao Chongbo, a senior engineer at the Climate Research Open Laboratory of the National Climate Center, introduced that El Ni ñ o events often accompany an increase in global average temperatures, but the specific magnitude of the warming and extreme weather conditions still need to be further monitored and judged based on the intensity, type, and regional climate response of El Ni ñ o. It is too early to determine whether a super El Ni ñ o or the hottest year will occur. Climate prediction has a certain degree of uncertainty, especially the specific formation time, intensity, and impact area of El Ni ñ o still need to be dynamically monitored and predicted. Climate experts suggest that the public should view forecast information rationally and pay attention to real-time updated forecast information released by authoritative institutions, rather than extreme statements at a single point in time. Zhao Chongbo, Senior Engineer at the Climate Research Open Laboratory of the National Climate Center, introduced that interested members of the public should pay timely attention to authoritative channels such as the National Climate Center, the official website of the China Meteorological Administration, and official new media platforms, and regularly consult authoritative information such as ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also regularly release global climate assessment reports, which can serve as references. Regardless of whether a super El Ni ñ o occurs or not, frequent extreme weather has become the new normal of global climate change. Meteorological experts suggest that the public should respond scientifically, pay attention to meteorological warnings in advance, and make corresponding preparations for prevention and response. Agricultural producers should arrange agricultural activities reasonably, and urban managers should strengthen the resilience construction of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation. How is El Ni ñ o formed? According to experts, the specific warming amplitude and extreme weather manifestations caused by El Ni ñ o need to be further monitored and judged based on its intensity, type, and regional climate response. So what exactly is El Ni ñ o? What impact will it have on our country? What is El Ni ñ o? It is a climate phenomenon in which the sea surface temperature in the equatorial central eastern Pacific continues to be high, causing abnormal atmospheric circulation. According to meteorological experts, hundreds of years ago, fishermen along the coast of Peru discovered that in some years, the sea surface temperature along the eastern Pacific coast of the equator would abnormally rise, resulting in a significant reduction in the originally abundant catch. Birds such as cormorants and pelicans suddenly disappeared, and well-known fishing grounds presented a bleak scene. Fishermen refer to this phenomenon as El Ni ñ o. On the contrary, the phenomenon of abnormally low sea surface temperature is called La Ni ñ a. According to Zhi Rong, Chief forecaster of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, under normal circumstances, the southeast trade winds in the equatorial Pacific will blow surface warm water to the western Pacific, forming a warm "warm pool"; Due to the influence of sea winds, the cold water in the deep sea of the eastern Pacific Ocean will continuously upwind, forming a stable state of warm to the west and cold to the east, as well as the atmospheric Walker circulation. When the trade winds in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific weaken or even blow in the opposite direction, the warm water in the western Pacific will flow back eastward, hindering the upwelling of cold water in the eastern Pacific, causing the sea temperature here to continue to rise, weakening the Walker circulation, intensifying the abnormal interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean, and ultimately forming the El Ni ñ o phenomenon. According to the "El Ni ñ o/La Ni ñ a Event Discrimination Method" in China, an El Ni ñ o event is defined as an El Ni ñ o event when the three-month moving average sea surface temperature index in the Ni ñ o 3.4 zone of the equatorial central eastern Pacific reaches or exceeds 0.5 ℃ and lasts for at least 5 months; A La Ni ñ a event is defined as being less than or equal to -0.5 ℃ and lasting for at least 5 months. According to meteorological data statistics, there have been a total of 22 El Ni ñ o events from 1951 to 2024. In general, in El Nino years, South American coastal countries are prone to rainstorm and flood disasters, while Indonesia, eastern Australia, southeast Africa and other places are prone to drought, and the number of hurricanes in the eastern Pacific in the northern hemisphere increases. For our country, in the year of El Ni ñ o, the southern region experiences heavy rainfall in autumn, while the northern region is prone to warm winters in winter. In the summer of a typical El Ni ñ o year, there will also be more precipitation in North China. It is worth noting that China's climate is largely influenced by factors such as sea surface temperature, polar ice, and land snow, and El Ni ñ o is not the only influencing factor. (New Society)