Forward looking layout for the development of future industries
2026-03-16
The future industry represents a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation direction, and is a key variable that determines the future industrial landscape and competitive pattern. The Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development proposes to proactively layout future industries, explore diverse technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, market supervision rules, and promote quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy, brain computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth generation mobile communication, and other new economic growth points. This provides fundamental guidance for the industrial development of our country in the next five years. We should follow the laws of development, seize historical opportunities, accelerate diversified exploration, and find a path for future industrial cultivation and development that is in line with China's national conditions. The future industry is an industrial form that is in the process of nurturing and developing. The future industry is driven by cutting-edge technology and is currently in the stage of incubation or early industrialization, with significant strategic, leading, disruptive, and uncertain industrial forms. Futurity "is its core feature, and future industries often represent the direction of technological innovation and industrial development, with enormous development potential and strategic value, and are likely to have a leading and transformative impact on economic and social development. The future industry is a key component of the modern industrial system. Future industries, together with emerging and traditional industries, constitute the main components of a modern industrial system. If traditional advantageous industries are the "cornerstone" of modern industrial systems and emerging industries are the "load-bearing walls", then future industries will be the "lighthouse" guiding direction and the "engine" expanding new space, leading industrial upgrading, optimizing industrial structure, and ensuring industrial security. The core mission of the future industry is to create a new engine for economic growth. No matter how cutting-edge the technology is, the future industry will always focus on the industry, and its fundamental value lies in the potential to form new economic growth points and substantial economic increments. If emerging industries are the current visible market size, then future industries represent more imaginative growth potential. Although the current scale is limited, once key technologies make breakthroughs, the future industry may trigger industrial chain restructuring and business model innovation, achieving exponential market expansion. The foundation for the layout and development of future industries in our country is becoming increasingly solid. After decades of development and accumulation, China has formed unique advantages in market, system, and factors, and has made significant progress in technological innovation capability, industrial development level, and market competition experience. The conditions for developing future industries are more sufficient. Faced with increasingly fierce international competition and the urgent demand for high-quality development, we must enhance our sense of urgency and accelerate the pace of future industrial layout. From the perspective of international competition and cooperation, future industries have become the core battlefield of great power games. From the perspective of its own development needs, developing future industries is a key measure for China to cultivate new quality productive forces, open up new spaces for economic growth, and improve the level of social services. The focus of China's layout and development of future industries is primarily to build a future industry cultivation system with enterprises as the core. Enterprises are the mainstay of future industrial innovation and development, and must strengthen their dominant position in research and development decision-making, investment organization, and achievement transformation, forming a vivid situation of integrated innovation among large, medium, and small enterprises. We should support large enterprises to strengthen their forward-looking layout, small and medium-sized enterprises to specialize in new and innovative development, improve the enterprise incubation system, and cultivate a group of "singles champions" and "supporting experts" who master unique skills in future industry segments such as artificial intelligence, quantum information, and biotechnology. Secondly, establish a mechanism for future industrial investment growth and risk sharing. The future industry has the characteristics of high R&D investment, long cycle, and high risk, and requires the establishment of diversified, long-term, and sustainable investment mechanisms and a sound risk sharing mechanism. To guide all parties to increase investment, give full play to the guiding role of government investment, improve tax preferential policies, and encourage financial institutions to innovate products and services; Improve the investment system and establish a long-term, patient capital supply mechanism. Establish a national level future industry investment fund to facilitate the exit channels for venture capital; Improve the risk sharing mechanism, explore the establishment of a special fund for future industrial investment risk compensation, vigorously develop technology insurance, and reduce the market risk of enterprises applying new technologies and products. Thirdly, in the process of exploration, we will form a model for cultivating future industries in China. There is no fixed model for future industrial development, and it is necessary to explore comprehensively in various aspects such as technological routes, application scenarios, business models, and regulatory rules, and find a development path that is in line with China's national conditions in practice. We should strengthen the exploration of diversified technological routes and improve the innovation system; Strengthen the exploration of typical application scenarios and explore potential value; Strengthen the exploration of feasible business models and build a commercial closed loop; Strengthen the exploration of market supervision rules to ensure orderly development. Author: Pu Songtao (Director of Future Industry Research Center, China Academy of Electronic Information Industry Development)
Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Wang Erdong
Source:ECONOMIC DAILY
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