The central bank's "dual pillars" of stabilizing the economy and preventing risks safeguard high-quality development
2026-03-10
Improving the central banking system, building a scientific and stable monetary policy system, and establishing a comprehensive macro prudential management system are the two pillars of the People's Bank of China's macro management. The relevant content of monetary policy and macro prudential management has been repeatedly mentioned in the draft outline of the 15th Five Year Plan. Currently, the People's Bank of China has initially established a "dual pillar" system with Chinese characteristics, achieving the dual goals of currency stability and financial stability. During the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, many interviewed representatives, committee members, experts, and scholars believe that in the next five years, the supportive monetary policy stance will be consistent, and macro prudential management is expected to be further improved. The combination punch of monetary policy supports the real economy. Before the Spring Festival, orders have rebounded and copper prices have risen. Fujian Nan'an Tujin Sanitary Ware Co., Ltd. urgently needs funds to stock up on raw materials such as copper ingots. A loan of 6.8 million yuan from Construction Bank came just in time. The head of the enterprise, Huang Jinming, said that the loan interest rate is only 2.55%, which can save 30000 yuan in interest compared to 2025. The decrease in loan costs benefits countless business entities. On March 6th, Pan Gongsheng, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, introduced at the economic themed press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that the weighted average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in January were about 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, at historically low levels. Wei Gejun, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and a counselor of the People's Bank of China, said that in the past two years, China's monetary policy has balanced risk prevention, structural adjustment, and development promotion. A series of measures have created a suitable monetary and financial environment for economic and social development, effectively promoting the achievement of major economic and social development goals. This year's government work report proposes to "continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" and "flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts". Liu Shangxi, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Vice President of the Chinese Society of Macroeconomics, said that this indicates that in the future, the use of monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be flexibly and moderately adjusted based on the economic situation and changes in the international environment. From recent monetary policy operations, we can clearly feel the direction of future policies. Monetary policy should be implemented when necessary. Starting from 2026, monetary policy will be pushed forward. On January 15th, the People's Bank of China announced the launch of a batch of monetary and financial policies, including eight measures such as lowering interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, focusing on key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises, to help the "15th Five Year Plan" start a good start. In January, the People's Bank of China increased the amount of re loans for scientific and technological innovation and transformation to 1.2 trillion yuan, in order to further encourage and guide financial institutions to provide credit support to the fields of scientific and technological innovation, technological transformation, and equipment renewal. Not long ago, the expansion project and supporting construction of the finished shoe production line in the intelligent manufacturing industrial park of Yongsheng Footwear in Fujian entered a critical stage. Chen Haixia, the financial director of the company, said that China Construction Bank has provided a 52.68 million yuan equipment renewal loan for the project, combined with preferential interest policies, which can save the company nearly one million yuan in financing costs in one year. Focusing on long-term reform, optimizing monetary policy with swift and steady steps. On March 6th, the People's Bank of China launched an 800 billion yuan buyout style reverse repurchase operation. Since its first implementation in October 2024, buyout reverse repurchase has improved the refinement level of liquidity management. Our country's monetary policy toolbox continues to be enriched, and the mechanism for the allocation of basic currency in the short, medium, and long term is constantly improving. On February 13, 2026, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration for Financial Regulation announced the list of systemically important banks in China for the year 2025. The total assets of the 21 selected banks account for about 70% of the total assets of the banking industry. Evaluating and updating the list of systemically important financial institutions is an important part of the People's Bank of China's macro prudential management function and maintaining financial stability. The draft outline of the 15th Five Year Plan clearly states to improve the supervision of systemically important financial institutions, strengthen macro prudential management in key areas such as financial markets and cross-border capital flows. China's macroprudential management system is constantly upgrading and expanding its coverage, and has explored and established a macroprudential management framework in areas such as credit markets, capital markets, foreign exchange markets, and real estate markets. ”Zhang Wei, assistant dean of the Wudaokou School of Finance at Tsinghua University, said. Establish and improve the overall regulatory framework for systemically important financial institutions. In recent years, a series of institutional documents have been issued successively, clarifying the requirements for additional supervision and recovery and disposal plans for systemically important banks. Zhang Wei said that implementing stricter constraints on important institutions can significantly enhance the risk resilience of the financial system. Establish tools such as macro prudential adjustment parameters for cross-border financing and implement countercyclical adjustments to cross-border capital flows. In 2023, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will raise the macroprudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing of enterprises and financial institutions from 1.25 to 1.5, and further increase it to 1.75 in 2025, in order to facilitate overseas financing and stabilize the temporary foreign exchange supply and demand pressure, reflecting the concept of macroprudential countercyclical adjustment. In terms of cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange markets, China has added countercyclical macroprudential adjustments on the basis of marketization, focusing on stabilizing expectations and volatility. ”Cheng Shi, Chief Economist of ICBC International, stated. Explore the implementation of macro prudential management in financial markets and improve macro prudential management in real estate finance. In recent years, a series of policies to stabilize the stock market and real estate market have been continuously implemented, effectively boosting confidence and stabilizing expectations. The continuous optimization of the "dual pillar" framework requires a strong central bank to become a financial powerhouse. What is a powerful central bank? We must have the ability to effectively regulate monetary policy and macro prudential management, and timely prevent and resolve systemic risks. The draft outline of the 15th Five Year Plan proposes to "improve the structural monetary policy tool system" and "establish a comprehensive macro prudential management system, incorporating more financial activities, financial markets, etc. into the macro prudential policy framework". Pan Gongsheng said that the People's Bank of China will implement the deployment of the 15th Five Year Plan, build a scientific and stable monetary policy system, and handle the relationship between short-term and long-term, stable growth and risk prevention, and internal and external factors. Looking ahead to the 15th Five Year Plan, how will the improvement of the central bank system and the further promotion of the "dual pillar" construction be carried out? The interviewed representatives, committee members, experts, and scholars believe that the supportive monetary policy stance and the "dual pillar" framework will not change. The draft outline of the 15th Five Year Plan proposes to "improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy". Cheng Shi believes that the construction of modern central banks during the 15th Five Year Plan period will maintain continuity in basic directions, and the financial "five major articles" will still be the key areas for policy implementation. ——Macro prudential management will be optimized and upgraded to enhance efficiency. Member Wei Gejun said that in the next few years, the People's Bank of China will further optimize and upgrade its institutional construction, systematic financial risk monitoring and evaluation, policy reserve tool expansion, and financial stability guarantee network construction, creating a better environment for China's economic and financial development. ——Strengthen coordination and cooperation among various policies. In the foreseeable future, the adjustment of global economic and trade patterns, policy differentiation among major economies, and fluctuations in capital flows will make the management of internal and external balance more complex. Cheng Shi believes that in the future, institutional construction will highlight the coordination between exchange rate flexibility, liquidity management, and macro prudential tools, and enhance the ability to respond to external shocks. Tian Xuan, a National People's Congress representative and distinguished professor at Peking University, suggested further strengthening the coordination and cooperation between macro prudential policies, monetary policies, and regulatory policies to form a policy synergy. (New Society)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Shanghai Securities Daily
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