Economy

National ledger releases new signal in 2026

2026-03-09   

Commissioned by the State Council, the Ministry of Finance recently submitted a report to the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress for review on the implementation of the central and local budgets for 2025 and the draft central and local budgets for 2026. This year, the deficit rate will continue to be arranged at around 4%, and the national fiscal deficit will reach 5.89 trillion yuan; The scale of newly added government bonds reached 11.89 trillion yuan; The central government has arranged a transfer payment of 10.42 trillion yuan to local governments... According to the national ledger, a more proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented in 2026, which is reflected not only in expanding the scale of funds but also in improving the efficiency of fund utilization. The key to maintaining a high deficit rate of 4% this year is to send a clear signal to the market that macroeconomic policies should prioritize stability and be proactive, in order to stabilize corporate investment expectations and household consumption expectations. ”Tian Xuan, a National People's Congress representative and a distinguished professor at Peking University, believes that this arrangement can provide stable financial support for the implementation of major national strategies, breakthroughs in scientific and technological innovation, and other medium - and long-term tasks. It not only drives effective demand in the current period, but also lays a solid foundation for high-quality economic development during the 15th Five Year Plan period. According to Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities, the scale of new government bonds and expenditure this year has reached new highs, and the necessary expenditure intensity is conducive to stabilizing total demand to support the achievement of economic and livelihood goals. The 'more proactive' fiscal policy is not only reflected in the intensity of expenditure, but also in the optimization of expenditure structure, deficit structure, and other aspects. From the perspective of fiscal expenditure structure, more funds are used in key areas and critical links for high-quality development. The budget report shows that the total expenditure on education, social security and employment, health and hygiene, and housing security exceeds 12.4 trillion yuan. Strengthening the guarantee of investment in scientific and technological innovation, the central government has allocated 426.4 billion yuan for scientific and technological expenditures, an increase of 10%. From the perspective of deficit structure, the national fiscal deficit is 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year, with all deficit increments listed by the central government. Luo Zhiheng believes that increasing leverage by the central government is conducive to reducing the financial burden on local governments, while also optimizing the structure of central and local debt. While ensuring sufficient expenditure intensity and optimizing structure, fiscal policy also focuses on improving investment quality and efficiency. The budget report proposes to improve the "negative list" of special bond investment areas, adjust the pilot scope of "self audit and spontaneous" special bond projects appropriately, pay more attention to provincial coordination in allocation and use, and separately list and increase the amount of special bonds used for project construction. The improvement and deepening of the government debt management system and mechanism have better adapted to the new requirements of the high-quality development stage. ”Yao Dongmin, Director and Professor of the China Finance Development Collaborative Innovation Center at the Central University of Finance and Economics, told China Securities Journal reporters that by improving the "negative list" of special bond investment areas, it is possible to prevent and resolve legal debt risks from the source, ensuring that bond funds are accurately invested in major strategic areas of the country. Single listing and increasing the special bond quota for project construction can promote the formation of physical workload, drive the expansion of effective investment, and provide solid support for the sustained recovery and improvement of the macro economy. Launching innovative measures to support the construction of a strong domestic market is the top priority of this year's major fiscal policy as listed in the budget report. The budget report proposes to adhere to the close combination of benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, investing in goods and investing in people, actively playing the role of finance in promoting consumption and expanding investment, and enhancing the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic circulation. Increasing residents' income through multiple channels, raising the per capita financial subsidy standard for basic medical insurance for urban and rural residents by an additional 24 yuan, and improving the policy of free preschool education... The budget report conveys sufficient information on livelihood security policies. In addition, from the budget report, multiple policies have been "updated": a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination has been introduced and implemented; An extra long term special treasury bond of 250 billion yuan was arranged to support the exchange of old for new consumer goods, and the scope and standard of subsidies were adjusted and optimized; Select some cities to carry out pilot projects for prize invoices. On March 6th, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an stated at the economic themed press conference of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that this year the central government has allocated 100 billion yuan to launch a package of six policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, including four targeted support for private investment and two support for household consumption. This package of policies comprehensively utilizes tools such as loan interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk compensation, with the key being to leverage the synergistic effects of multiple policies in finance, industry, and other areas. Combined with the 250 billion yuan of 'trade in' for consumer goods this year, the intensity is greater than last year. Preliminary estimates suggest that billions of fiscal funds can support and benefit trillions of dollars in credit, achieving the effect of 'four liang to a thousand jin'. ”Lan Fu'an said. Zhang Lianqi, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and President of the China Enterprise Financial Management Association, believes that a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination will help reduce the financing costs of the real economy, activate bulk consumption and service consumption, leverage social capital investment, boost confidence in private investment, and further amplify the policy integration effect through the resonance of various policies. To deepen the reform of zero based budgeting and continuously optimize the expenditure structure, strengthen the guarantee of key areas, it is necessary to apply the concept of zero based budgeting. The budget report proposes to actively use the zero based budgeting concept to break the fixed pattern of expenditure. Lan Fo'an introduced that zero based budgeting is the implementation of setting money based on events, breaking the dependence on base numbers, and scientifically and accurately preparing budgets. Especially, we must vigorously reduce inefficient and ineffective expenditures, and not spend any money that can be spent or is not profitable; And when it comes to spending money, it's important to focus on efficiency and strive to accomplish more with less money. Let's do a simple calculation. With an expenditure of 30 trillion yuan this year, if the overall efficiency improves by 1%, it is equivalent to saving 300 billion yuan, which can accomplish many great things. ”Lan Fo'an said that deepening the zero based budget reform requires efficiency in expenditure. Li Xuhong, Vice Dean and Professor of the Beijing National Institute of Accounting, believes that for central and local finances, zero based budgeting can promote the transformation of funds from "whether there is" to "whether it is good or not", effectively reduce general expenditures, enhance fiscal macro-control capabilities and sustainability. Zero based budgeting can guide the optimization of resource allocation, promote the flow of funds towards high-efficiency areas such as technological innovation and green development, stimulate endogenous economic power, and promote high-quality development. (New Society)

Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:China Securities Journal

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