Economy

There are three considerations for China's economic growth target in 2026

2026-03-06   

This year's Chinese government work report proposes an expected target of economic growth of 4.5% -5%, and strives to achieve better results in actual work. In the first year of the 15th Five Year Plan, China once again set annual growth targets in the form of intervals, which contains three deep considerations behind it. Firstly, reserve policy space and adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, the external environment has become increasingly complex. The Chinese economy needs to address both old problems and new challenges, and macroeconomic regulation needs to be more flexible and forward-looking. Cheng Shi, Chief Economist of ICBC International, stated that interval targets not only stabilize growth expectations, but also reserve more ample space for macroeconomic policy adjustments. This not only reflects confidence in China's economic growth potential, but also helps to enhance policy flexibility and adaptability in complex external environments, creating more relaxed policy conditions for structural adjustment, risk prevention, and reform promotion. It is worth noting that while clarifying specific quantitative goals, the government work report also proposes to "strive for better results in practical work", reflecting the consistent idea of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". Shen Danyang, the head of the drafting group for the government work report and director of the State Council Research Office, stated that this demonstrates a proactive goal orientation and policy orientation. On the one hand, the Chinese economy has strong resilience and vitality, with a continuously improving structure and accelerated growth of new quality productivity; On the other hand, this year we will continue to implement more proactive macro policies and deepen reforms in a series of key areas, which is expected to further unleash the potential for economic growth. Secondly, clarify the focus of development and pursue the "quality" of growth. In the past five years, the total economic output has achieved a "four consecutive jumps" and will exceed the 140 trillion yuan (RMB) mark by 2025- for China today, growth requires not only speed but also "quality". Liu Ying, a researcher at the Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China, believes that setting a growth rate target of 4.5% -5% is core to pursuing high-quality, efficient, and more sustainable growth. Currently, the Chinese economy is accelerating structural adjustment, with new driving forces such as the digital economy and green economy growing rapidly. The added value of the service industry accounts for over half of the gross domestic product (GDP). Setting the growth rate target within the above range will help guide localities to shift their development focus from simply pursuing speed to adjusting structure, promoting innovation, protecting ecology, and benefiting people's livelihoods, and promote the improvement of the "quality" of economic development. From the perspective of the "three pillars" driving economic growth, Liu Ying analyzed that this year is the beginning of the 15th Five Year Plan, and it is expected that many major projects will be implemented, with strong investment momentum; Last year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 50 trillion yuan, indicating enormous consumption potential; Despite the complex global situation, the easing of economic and trade frictions is expected to drive the recovery of China's exports. Therefore, I have confidence in achieving better results. Thirdly, connect with long-term goals and build a solid foundation for the long term. In the medium to long term, experts generally believe that the target range of 4.5% -5% is overall aligned and synchronized with the 2035 long-term goals. Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of the China Development Planning Institute at Tsinghua University, stated that in accordance with the requirement of achieving per capita GDP at the level of a moderately developed country by 2035, the average annual growth rate of China's GDP in the next decade needs to be maintained at around 4.17%. Striving for higher growth rates in the early stages and setting the target at 4.5% or above can lay a solid foundation for long-term development. In other words, at present, China has the conditions to moderately adjust its GDP growth target. ”Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that overall, the growth target of 4.5% -5% this year can provide a foundation for the macro economy to achieve a balance between stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk control, and this growth level will continue to be in the medium to high speed growth range. (New Society)

Edit:Quan yi Responsible editor:Wang Xiaoxiao

Source:chinanews.com.cn

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