Drawing up a new vision for high-quality population development during the 15th Five Year Plan period
2026-03-05
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China's population development underwent a profound transformation, with the total population entering a plateau period, the structure continuing to adjust, and the quality of the population steadily improving. Standing at a new historical starting point, the "15th Five Year Plan" proposal approved by the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly regards promoting high-quality population development as a major strategic task, and makes systematic arrangements for building a fertility friendly society and optimizing population development strategies. This indicates that China's population work pays more attention to systematic planning, building a fertility friendly society from multiple dimensions, synchronously improving the elderly care service system, and actively responding to the challenges of low birth and aging. The period of the 15th Five Year Plan is a crucial five-year period for China to comprehensively build a socialist modernized country, and also a deepening period for population transformation. High quality population development means the coordinated optimization of scale, structure, quality, and distribution, as well as the coordinated adaptation with the economy, society, resources, and environment. This is not only an urgent need to address the challenges of low birth rates and aging, but also a strategic cornerstone for shaping new development advantages and winning future competitive initiative. Therefore, we must take a long-term perspective and systematic thinking, and take promoting long-term balanced population development and improving the overall efficiency of human capital as the priority agenda of the "15th Five Year Plan", so as to inject a lasting and strong new momentum of population into the overall promotion of Chinese path to modernization. Deeply understanding the new situation and challenges of population development during the 15th Five Year Plan period, the main characteristics of China's population development will shift from "quantity pressure" to "structural optimization" and "quality improvement". This requires us to actively adapt to and manage the new situation of population development, and to have a clear understanding of the profound challenges it brings. Firstly, the interweaving of low fertility rates and rapid aging has become a fundamental variable affecting long-term development. Currently, China's total fertility rate has dropped to an ultra-low level of around 1.1, and the average ideal number of children for the childbearing age population continues to decline. The concept of "not loving, not getting married, infertility, and having fewer children" is increasingly influencing the younger generation. At the same time, the process of population aging is accelerating like never before. It is expected that by 2030, China will enter a severely aging society, with the elderly dependency ratio exceeding that of children, and the social burden of elderly care significantly increasing. This structural contradiction is directly related to the sustainability of future labor supply, the robustness of the social security system, and the driving force of long-term economic growth. Secondly, the dividend of population quality urgently needs to be released, but the structural contradiction of talent is still prominent. According to statistics released by the Ministry of Education in July 2024, the average length of education for China's newly added labor force has reached 14 years. This indicates that China is in a critical period of transition from a "demographic dividend" to a "talent dividend". However, the structural mismatch between talent cultivation and industry demand cannot be ignored. On the one hand, there is a shortage of strategic scientists, technology leaders, and high skilled craftsmen urgently needed in cutting-edge technology fields and advanced manufacturing industries, resulting in a "labor shortage". On the other hand, the reduction of traditional industry positions and the surplus of low skilled labor coexist, leading to "employment difficulties". The higher education system still faces institutional barriers in the cultivation of interdisciplinary composite talents and the deep integration of industry and education, which restricts the full flow of talent innovation vitality. Finally, population migration and mobility present new characteristics, and regional coordinated development faces new challenges. While the population continues to gather in central cities and urban clusters, inter provincial migration tends to stabilize, with an increase in intra provincial mobility and inter regional return. This not only attracts high-end talents and consolidates industrial advantages in the eastern region, but also faces pressure on public service delivery; The central and western regions are facing opportunities in undertaking industrial transfer and attracting talent return, but also challenges such as weak foundations and insufficient talent adaptability. How to optimize the spatial layout of population and talent, so as to better match the national regional major strategy and the main functional zone strategy, is the key to achieving high-quality development through "balanced agglomeration". The primary task of strengthening the social foundation for high-quality population development and promoting high-quality population development is to create a social and cultural environment that encourages childbirth, supports families, promotes gender equality, and is diverse and inclusive. This will elevate the cultivation of a positive and modern marriage and childbearing culture to a strategic level of national soft power construction. The "new" of the new marriage and childbearing culture lies in five fundamental transformations. Firstly, the value foundation has shifted from a family obligation based approach to respecting individual autonomy and achieving a dynamic balance between individuals, families, and society; Secondly, the foundation of rights has shifted from a single traditional model to recognizing and respecting the legitimacy of diverse marriage and childbearing choices; Thirdly, the gender order has shifted from a fixed role of "male leads outside and female leads inside" to advocating for a partnership of shared responsibility; Fourthly, the family structure has shifted from an absolute blood relationship core to a greater emphasis on emotional support and the realization of mutual assistance and cooperation functions; Fifth, the goal orientation has shifted from pursuing population growth to supporting the overall improvement of population quality and the enhancement of family development capabilities. To promote this cultural transformation, we must adhere to the deep integration of "soft guidance" and "hard support". In terms of "soft guidance", modern concepts such as marriage and child friendliness, gender equality, and shared responsibility are disseminated through innovative propaganda and setting examples; In terms of 'hard support', we will comprehensively implement institutional support such as parental leave, develop inclusive childcare, improve maternity insurance and subsidies, and effectively reduce the cost of family childbirth and upbringing. Through the dual drive of value reshaping and institutional guarantee, a solid social foundation is laid for the high-quality development of the population. To transform the advantage of population size into the advantage of talent innovation, in the face of the profound adjustment of population structure, it is necessary to firmly implement the strategy of building a strong country through talent, promote the development of education, science and technology, and talent in an integrated manner, and achieve a historic leap from a "human resources country" to a "talent resources country". During the 15th Five Year Plan period, the core of talent work is to solve structural contradictions, achieve precise matching and efficiency improvement. On the one hand, closely aligning with the major strategic needs of the country and the forefront of industrial development, increasing the independent training and overseas introduction of urgently needed and scarce talents. Optimize the discipline setting of higher education, strengthen the construction of basic disciplines, emerging disciplines, and interdisciplinary disciplines, and cultivate compound talents with innovative spirit and practical ability. At the same time, we will improve policies for attracting overseas talents, create an international research environment, and gather a group of strategic scientists and technology leaders. On the other hand, accelerate the reform of higher education and vocational education system mechanisms. Breaking down disciplinary barriers and opening up channels for interdisciplinary talent cultivation; Deepen the integration of industry and education, the integration of science and education, and promote the formation of an innovative community between universities, enterprises, and research institutes; Reform the talent evaluation system, establish an evaluation mechanism guided by innovation ability, quality, and contribution, and loosen the burden for all types of talents, fully unleashing innovation vitality. Special attention should be paid to the cultivation and promotion of skilled talents, and a modern vocational education system that is vertically connected and horizontally integrated should be built to enable more skilled craftsmen to enter the high-end talent sequence and consolidate the foundation of the real economy. Optimize the mechanism for talent flow and allocation in spatial layout. Respecting market laws, while strengthening government guidance, by improving the compensation mechanism for talent mobility between regions, breaking down institutional barriers to mobility, and promoting equalization of basic public services, we can promote the rational flow and optimized allocation of talent between urban and rural areas and regions, so that talent distribution can better serve the national regional coordinated development strategy. Building a service support system that covers the entire life cycle for high-quality population development ultimately aims to enhance the well-being of all people and improve their quality of life. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, efforts should be made to build a public service and support system that covers children, youth, middle-aged, and elderly people of all ages, and connects the entire process of marriage, childbirth, nurturing, education, and elderly care. For 'one small', the key lies in 'reducing burden' and 'empowering'. In addition to the aforementioned fertility support policies, we must continue to deepen reforms in the education sector, expand the supply of high-quality educational resources, and fundamentally alleviate educational anxiety. Vigorously promote the construction of child friendly cities, from hardware facilities to soft services, and create a strong atmosphere of caring for children's growth throughout society. For the elderly, the focus is on "protection" and "participation". Actively addressing population aging is a national strategy. Accelerate the improvement of the elderly care service system that coordinates home and community institutions and combines medical care with health care, and promote the shift of the focus of elderly care services and the allocation of resources. Vigorously develop the silver economy, promote technological empowerment, develop aging friendly products and services, and establish corresponding standards and certification systems. More importantly, we need to recognize the 'silver talent dividend' inherent in the large scale of young and elderly population. Timely adjust retirement, employment and other related policies, encourage and support elderly people with good health conditions to "contribute to old age", continue to play a role in knowledge dissemination, technical guidance, community service, volunteer service and other aspects, and achieve the transformation from passive elderly care to active aging. The comprehensive implementation of the concept of "investing in people" runs through the entire lifecycle. This requires adaptive adjustments to the structure of public financial expenditures, increasing investment in human capital accumulation, including reproductive health, maternal and child health care, preschool education, vocational training, health management, long-term care, and other aspects. Build a system pillar centered on universal maternity insurance, balanced infant and toddler care subsidies, and active labor market policies, forming a sustainable development mechanism shared by the government, enterprises, society, and families. In short, population development concerns the future and well-being of a nation. High quality population development is the cornerstone of a nation's sustainability. Only through long-term systematic planning and comprehensive policy implementation can population challenges be transformed into development opportunities during the "Fifteenth Five Year Plan" period, and a solid population support for Chinese path to modernization be built. (Xinhua News Agency) Author: Wu Ruijun (Member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and Director of the Library of East China Normal University)
Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Zhoushu
Source:cssn.cn
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