Think Tank

Making 'promoting reasonable price recovery' an important consideration in monetary policy

2026-01-22   

At the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025, when deploying the economic work for 2026, it was clearly required that "oting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices should be an important consideration for monetary policy." Among them, "a reasonable rebound in prices" was mentioned for the first time "stable economic growth" as an important consideration for monetary policy, and this new formulation has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life. 

By combing through the content of the Central Economic Work Conference in recent years, it can be found that the monetary policy of our country has paid and more attention to the price. In 2022, the monetary policy mainly focused on economic growth, requiring that the liquidity should be kept at a reasonable and sufficient level and that the growth rate of the broad money supply and the social financing scale should be basically matched with the nominal economic growth rate. From 2023 to 204, the monetary policy took into account the economic growth while further increasing the consideration of prices, requiring that the social financing scale and the money supply should match the expected target of growth and price level. On this basis, the Central Economic Work Conference in 2025 more clearly took "promoting economic stable growth and reasonable recovery of prices" as important consideration of monetary policy. This not only reflects the consistency of macro-policies, but also provides an important guide for scientifically grasping the current macroeconomic situation in China consolidating the momentum of economic improvement. 

Focusing on “promoting a reasonable rebound in prices” helps expand the profit margin of enterprises and solidify the foundation for enterprise profitability household income growth. On the surface, it might appear beneficial for consumers when prices are depressed, as they can purchase more consumer goods with less spending. However, the situation is not straightforward. From a long-term perspective, persistently low prices are not only not beneficial but also harmful to consumers. If prices continue to be depressed, the profit margin of enterprises be squeezed, leading to intensified competition among enterprises and even the exit of some from the market. This would not only reduce the wage income that households receive from enterprises but could also to job losses for some residents. In such a scenario, monetary policy would naturally find it difficult to achieve the goal of “stable economic growth”. Focusing on “promoting reasonable rebound in prices” as an important consideration for monetary policy is conducive to improving the profitability of enterprises in a timely manner and smoothing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to enterprise investment. Looking further ahead, the improvement in the profitability of enterprises can provide crucial support for household income growth and create more jobs, which in turn can smooth the transmission mechanism of policy to boost household consumption. In this way, monetary policy can be more effective in promoting stable growth while pushing for a “reasonable rebound in prices”

Anchoring "promoting a reasonable rebound in prices" is conducive to reducing the actual financing cost and the actual debt burden, enhancing the willingness of enterprises to invest and the willingness of residents to consume. The financing cost and the debt burden are important determinants of enterprise investment and household consumption. If the price continues to be sluggish, even if the nominal interest rate and the nominal debt burden do not increase, the actual financing cost and the actual debt burden of enterprises and residents will, which will weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy. During the Great Recession in the 1930s, the Federal Reserve cut the nominal interest rate many times, but failed to effectively boost enterprise investment. A very important reason was that the United States was in a deflationary state at that time. This not only led to the high level of financing costs for enterprises, but also triggered a "debt-deflation" vicious circle. This shows that in a macro environment where prices are relatively sluggish, if monetary policy not focus on promoting "a reasonable rebound in prices", its goal of stabilizing growth will also be difficult to achieve. Taking "promoting a reasonable rebound in prices" as important consideration of monetary policy can effectively alleviate this problem. On the one hand, it can improve the investment motivation of enterprises, encourage enterprises, especially some enterprises facing financing pressure and debt, to improve their willingness to invest. On the other hand, it can improve the willingness of residents to consume. In this way, monetary policy can also promote "economic stable growth more smoothly.

Anchoring on the goal of "promoting a reasonable rebound in prices" can help boost market confidence and provide strong internal impetus forating and expanding the momentum of economic stability and improvement. In a market environment of "excess supply and weak demand," if companies continue to increase investment in existing products, it exacerbate related contradictions, leading to a continuous decline in product prices. If companies invest in new products, they may face greater uncertainty. Moreover, when companies themselves have a heavy burden, price depression can also trigger expectations of an increased actual debt burden and actual financing cost in the future, further weakening the willingness to invest. By focusing on "prom a reasonable rebound in prices" as an important consideration for monetary policy and striving to push the price level back to a reasonable level as soon as possible, we can systematically improve market expectations boost entrepreneur confidence. The optimistic expectations of the corporate sector will lead to an improvement in household income expectations, thereby strengthening consumer confidence. Under the effect of good expectations, a virtuous can be formed between enhanced confidence and expanded demand, injecting momentum into reversing the situation of "excess supply and weak demand.

Two important issues need to be taken into consideration in the process of using monetary policy to promote a "reasonable rebound in prices". First and, it is crucial to grasp the profound connotation of the term "reasonable". The promotion of a "reasonable rebound in prices" is by no means aimed at pursuing inflation. is essential to properly control the intensity and pace of monetary policy to ensure a steady increase in prices, bringing them close to the expected price level target. Secondly, the reasons for the price growth are multifaceted, encompassing both external factors, such as the rise of trade protectionism and increased trade frictions, and internal factors, including the intensifying aging the population and the need for optimization of the income distribution structure. It is challenging to comprehensively address these complex causes solely through monetary policy. It is necessary to further strengthen the and cooperation between monetary policy and other stable policies, such as fiscal policy, and to enhance the overall coordination of stable policies with growth policies and structural policies. By eliminating the structural barriers business investment and household consumption, and by smoothing the national economic cycle, it is possible to better achieve the important goals of "economic stability and growth, and a reasonable rebound in prices.

Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Zhoushu

Source:ECONOMIC DAILY

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