The supporting conditions and basic trends for the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy have not changed
2026-01-05
The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference made a scientific judgment and strategic deployment on the historical position and direction of China's economic development, comprehensively analyzed the domestic and international economic situation, and pointed out from a strategic height and long-term perspective that "the supporting conditions and basic trends for China's long-term economic improvement have not changed." The "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" approved at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly states: "From a domestic perspective, China's economic foundation is stable, with many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential. The supporting conditions and basic trends for long-term improvement have not changed. The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super large market, the advantages of a complete industrial system, and the advantages of abundant human resources are more prominent. Emphasizing the importance of doing a good job in next year's economic work, We must fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, and promote the effective improvement of the economy in terms of quality and reasonable growth in terms of quantity, in order to lay a good foundation for the economic and social development during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The confidence and confidence in this series of deployments stem from China's solid foundation of sustained and rapid development and accumulation. This is one of the "five strategic favorable conditions" for China's development pointed out by General Secretary Xi Jinping from a strategic perspective. It is a major judgment made based on the national and global conditions and the objective laws of major country development, fully indicating that China's development is still in an important strategic opportunity period at present and in the future. At present, facing the complex and severe international environment and the arduous domestic tasks of reform, development, and stability, it is of great significance to deeply understand the major judgment that "the long-term positive supporting conditions and basic trends have not changed", accurately grasp its rich connotation system and practical basis, and strengthen our confidence in development, maintain strategic determination, and do a good job in economic work. The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics continue to be demonstrated, maintaining the continuity and stability of macro policies, and laying a solid institutional foundation for the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy. The policy signals conveyed by the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference clearly demonstrate the practical form and governance effectiveness of this institutional advantage. In 2026, we will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain consistency in macroeconomic policy orientation, and create a suitable macroeconomic environment for sustained economic recovery and high-quality development. This policy is based on a profound understanding of China's economic development stage and practical needs. We should continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies, maintain necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and total expenditure, strengthen scientific fiscal management, optimize fiscal expenditure structure, and standardize tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies. We should continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, taking the promotion of stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations of monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, maintaining sufficient liquidity, smoothing the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and guiding financial institutions to increase support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises. This policy combination focuses on both short-term stable growth and long-term structural adjustment, reflecting the dialectical unity of "stability" and "progress", and the organic combination of "counter cyclical and cross cyclical". Of particular note is that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference proposed for the first time to "leverage the integrated effects of stock policies and incremental policies", and called for the inclusion of various economic policies and even non economic policies in the "macro policy orientation consistency evaluation" framework. This innovative institutional arrangement has important theoretical and practical significance. It aims to crack the "synthesis fallacy" and "decomposition fallacy" in policy implementation, form a policy synergy through system design and coordination, and maximize the institutional advantage of "concentrating efforts to accomplish great things". The advantage of a super large scale market provides strong support. Adhering to domestic demand leadership and building a strong domestic market is a major strategic arrangement made at the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference to consolidate the market foundation for the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy. This deployment is not only based on a scientific judgment of the current contradiction of "strong domestic supply and weak demand", but also reflects a profound grasp of the laws of economic development, especially the laws of major country economic development. It is a key measure to smooth the domestic circulation and shape new advantages in international competition. In the face of the prominent contradiction of insufficient effective demand at present, it is necessary to "deeply implement the special action to boost consumption", and in the future, comprehensive measures will be taken from multiple dimensions such as increasing residents' income, improving the consumption environment, and innovating consumption scenarios. Of particular note is that the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference explicitly requires the "cleaning up of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector" and the removal of institutional barriers that restrict consumption upgrading. This is conducive to unleashing the enormous potential of service consumption, especially in the fields of education, healthcare, elderly care, culture, tourism, and others. This deployment directly addresses the bottlenecks and pain points in the current consumer market, reflecting the work approach of adhering to problem orientation and focusing on policy effectiveness. We need to formulate and implement plans to increase the income of urban and rural residents, consolidate consumption capacity from the source, cultivate the foundation of domestic demand growth, expand channels for residents' labor and property income, improve redistribution and adjustment mechanisms, and form a virtuous cycle where residents' income growth is basically synchronized with economic growth, providing solid support for sustained consumption expansion. In the field of investment, we need to "promote investment to stop falling and stabilize" by optimizing the implementation of "dual" projects, optimizing the management of the use of local government special bonds, and continuing to play the role of new policy financial instruments to support the stabilization and recovery of investment demand. The focus of these important deployments is to build a "strong domestic market", which is a unique advantage for a super large scale economy like China to maintain development autonomy and stability. It is also the confidence we have to cope with various external shocks and seize the initiative in development. The advantages of a complete industrial system are constantly consolidated, and the construction of a modern industrial system is continuously promoted, injecting strong impetus into the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy. "Significant progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system" is a full recognition of the development achievements during the "14th Five Year Plan" period at the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, while "adhering to innovation driven development and accelerating the cultivation and growth of new driving forces" is a key deployment for economic work in 2026. The inherent connection between these two clearly outlines the strategic path of China's industrial development: on the basis of consolidating the advantages of traditional industries, promoting industrial innovation through technological innovation, driving economic transformation through industrial upgrading, accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces, and shaping new driving forces and advantages for development. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference made a strategic decision on the layout of scientific and technological innovation: to build three international scientific and technological innovation centers in Beijing (Beijing Tianjin Hebei), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area. This is not a simple regional positioning, but a strategic consideration based on the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system. The three major centers have their own characteristics and complementary advantages: Beijing relies on abundant scientific research resources and capital functions to strengthen national strategic scientific and technological capabilities, focusing on basic research and original innovation; Shanghai, with its advantages of openness and industrial foundation, promotes the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and builds a high-level base for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements; The Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area relies on market-oriented mechanisms and international connectivity advantages to promote cross-border flow of innovative factors and build a global hub for scientific and technological innovation. This mutually supportive layout aims to form a strategic pillar for building a strong technological country, optimize the allocation of innovation resources at the national level, and enhance the overall efficiency of the innovation system. The important methodology of "developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions" has strong practical guidance significance. This requires all regions to abandon the mindset of blindly following the trend and simply copying, based on their own resource endowments, industrial foundations, and scientific research conditions, identify the entry points and focus points for developing new quality productivity, avoid homogeneous competition and resource waste, and form a development pattern of new quality productivity with unique characteristics and complementary advantages. The advantages of enriching talent resources have become more prominent, and the development of integrated education and technology talents has been formulated to provide solid support for the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy. The deployment of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference to develop an integrated education and technology talent development plan contains profound strategic considerations and accurately grasps the essential laws of innovative activities, namely education is the foundation, technology is the key, and talent is the foundation. The three support and complement each other, and must be systematically planned and promoted in coordination. This deployment is a concrete implementation and institutionalized arrangement of the regular understanding that investment in goods and investment in people must be closely integrated. Developing an integrated promotion plan means top-level design at the national level, connecting the complete innovation chain from talent cultivation, scientific research to technology application and industrial development. By deepening the reform of the education system, adjusting and optimizing the structure of disciplines and majors in higher education institutions, strengthening the construction of basic disciplines, emerging disciplines, and interdisciplinary fields, we aim to cultivate more high-quality talents who can adapt to the development needs of new technologies, industries, and business models. By reforming the scientific research management system, improving the talent evaluation and incentive mechanism, and giving researchers greater control over human, financial, and technological routes, we can stimulate innovation and creativity. By strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research and application, and accelerating the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into real productivity. The formulation and implementation of integrated solutions marks a new stage in China's innovation system construction, no longer satisfied with individual breakthroughs or partial optimizations, but pursuing system reconstruction and overall efficiency improvement. Through institutional innovation to promote knowledge and technological innovation, and through environmental optimization to attract, retain, and make good use of talents, China's abundant talent resource advantage will accelerate its transformation into a powerful innovation driving force for high-quality development. Especially in the context of increasingly fierce global technological competition and talent competition, this systematic talent development strategy is particularly important. This reflects China's strategic wisdom of seizing the initiative in development through hard work and solid foundation in an uncertain international environment, and is also the only way to achieve high-level technological self-reliance and self-improvement. The acceleration of the formation of new quality productive forces, the deepening and expansion of "artificial intelligence+", and the cultivation of new driving forces for the long-term improvement of the Chinese economy. The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has clearly listed "artificial intelligence+" as an important lever for cultivating and strengthening new driving forces. This deployment has distinct characteristics of the times and profound strategic significance. Artificial intelligence, as a strategic technology leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, is profoundly changing the way humans produce and live, as well as the mode of economic development. Placing it in a prominent position in economic work reflects a keen grasp of technological development trends and strategic planning for future development initiative. The essence of 'Artificial Intelligence+' is the deep integration of artificial intelligence technology with various fields of the real economy. Deepening and expanding this action means shifting from pilot exploration to large-scale promotion, from single point applications to system empowerment. This comprehensive and deep integration empowerment is the most active and concentrated manifestation of new quality productivity, representing the main direction of industrial transformation and the new engine of economic growth. Around the theme of "adhering to innovation driven", the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference has also made a series of institutional arrangements aimed at optimizing the innovation ecosystem. Strengthening the position of enterprises as the main body of innovation requires further opening up channels for innovation resources to gather in enterprises, supporting leading enterprises to form innovation consortia, and undertaking major national science and technology projects; Improving the intellectual property protection system in emerging fields directly faces artificial intelligence
Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Zhoushu
Source:Tianjin Daily
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