Accurately grasp the policy orientation of next year's economic work
2025-12-26
The recently held Central Economic Work Conference analyzed the current economic situation, proposed the overall ideas and policy orientation for doing a good job in next year's economic work, and deployed key work tasks. The meeting pointed out that "there are still many old problems and new challenges in China's economic development, the impact of external environmental changes is deepening, the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is prominent, and there are many risks and hidden dangers in key areas." These problems are essentially accompanying the social economy in the process of moving towards a higher stage of development and building a higher quality economic system. They are a concrete manifestation of the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development, and a hurdle that China's economy must cross from the high-speed growth stage to the high-quality development stage. The central government has a clear understanding and scientific judgment on this issue, neither underestimating the seriousness of the problem nor shaking its confidence in development. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that "most of these are problems in development and transformation that can be solved through efforts," and pointed out that "the supporting conditions and basic trends for the long-term improvement of China's economy have not changed. This overall judgment has laid a solid epistemological foundation for us to rationally analyze the situation and scientifically deploy our work, avoiding blind optimism and negative pessimism, demonstrating the profound insights of historical materialism and dialectical materialism. The above overall judgment is highly consistent with the historical position of China's development during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The period of the 15th Five Year Plan plays an important role in the basic realization of socialist modernization, and is a critical period for consolidating the foundation and comprehensively exerting efforts to achieve socialist modernization. The core task of this period is not simply to pursue the expansion of economic aggregate, but to focus on solving development problems, cultivating development advantages, and achieving a high degree of unity in development quality, structure, scale, speed, efficiency, and security. Therefore, the many contradictions currently faced are the core issues that need to be focused on and resolved during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The Central Economic Work Conference has deeply grasped the inherent logic and phased characteristics of the current economic operation, providing systematic guidance for addressing complex challenges and consolidating the positive trend. The meeting clearly identified "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" as the core policy orientation, reflecting the strategic balance between short-term stability and long-term development. Intensify countercyclical adjustment efforts to hedge against pressure from shrinking demand and weakened expectations, and focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations; By relying on cross cyclical institutional design, we can better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, better coordinate development and security, and continue to promote structural optimization and power transformation. The meeting also made arrangements to leverage the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies, enhance policy foresight, targeted coordination, implement more proactive macro policies, and develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, with the aim of promoting effective qualitative and quantitative growth of the economy and achieving a good start to the 15th Five Year Plan. Specifically, we need to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policy orientation. Continuing to implement more proactive fiscal policies. Fiscal policies are an important tool for the country to implement macroeconomic regulation, optimize resource allocation, and ensure and improve people's livelihoods. To implement more proactive fiscal policies, while focusing on supporting aggregate demand and stabilizing long-term economic growth, optimizing structure, preventing risks, and achieving sustainability should be the goal tasks. Maintain necessary expenditure intensity and strengthen countercyclical adjustment function. Faced with the prominent contradiction of insufficient effective demand, the role of fiscal expenditure in expanding domestic demand is becoming increasingly prominent. Maintaining the necessary scale of fiscal deficit and total debt is not simply an expansion, but a precise calculation and reasonable arrangement based on the actual economic operation, development goals, and fiscal affordability. Its core purpose is to ensure that the government can maintain the necessary total public expenditure, directly generate effective investment and consumption, hedge against economic downturn pressure, and create favorable expectations and conditions for social investment. Appropriately increase the scale of investment within the central budget, optimize the implementation of "dual" projects, and strengthen financial support for major national strategies and basic livelihood. Optimize the management of the use of local government special bonds, eliminate large-scale investment, implement precise drip irrigation, layout cross cycle adjustments, and build new competitive advantages for the future. Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and strengthen scientific management of finance. Implementing a more proactive fiscal policy does not mean sowing pepper. Improving quality and efficiency is the key focus. Optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure. Resolutely reduce general, non urgent, and non rigid expenditures, and allocate more limited fiscal resources to key areas such as weak links in people's livelihood security, coordinated development between urban and rural areas, and green and low-carbon transformation. Shift fiscal funds from scale expansion to structural optimization, and strive to generate better social and economic benefits. Standardize tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies. With the goal of building a unified national market, we will thoroughly rectify "internal competition", clean up and standardize various illegal and non compliant tax incentives and subsidies in various regions, and guide enterprises to enhance their competitiveness through innovation and efficiency. Design more precise and performance oriented industrial support policies to stimulate the endogenous motivation of business entities. Coordinate development and security, and attach importance to solving local financial difficulties. Grassroots governments are the "last mile" in implementing various policies, and their financial health is directly related to economic and social stability. We attach great importance to and systematically solve local financial difficulties, actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, urge localities to proactively reduce debt, and shall not illegally add hidden debts. Optimize debt restructuring and replacement methods, resolve operational debt risks of local government financing platforms, and improve long-term regulatory frameworks. We will take multiple measures, such as increasing the central government's transfer payments to local governments, deepening the reform of the fiscal system below the provincial level, and cultivating and strengthening local tax sources, to enhance the ability of grassroots financial security and secure the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. Following the principles of clear rights and responsibilities, coordinated financial resources, and regional balance, we will improve the local tax system and enhance the adjustability of local finances. Strictly enforce financial discipline and adhere to a tight schedule for party and government organs. Adhering to the strict living standards of party and government organs is a long-term governing philosophy and style requirement that must be upheld, and it is the inheritance and promotion of the fine tradition of hard work and struggle in the new era. Firmly establish the awareness of "saving for the people", comprehensively promote zero based budgeting, reduce administrative costs and unnecessary expenditures, strengthen rigid budget constraints and performance management, and ensure that every penny of fiscal funds is used wisely. Establish strict financial discipline and restraint mechanisms, resolutely curb illegal and irregular borrowing behavior, build a solid foundation for fiscal sustainability, and provide solid guarantees for high-quality economic and social development. Continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy plays a central role in regulating aggregate demand and price levels, and creating a suitable monetary and financial environment. A prudent monetary policy requires maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, with a greater emphasis on "flexibility, moderation, precision, and effectiveness". Its goals have expanded from a single focus on growth to a dual consideration of growth and price stability. Clarify multiple objectives, grasp policy intensity and pace. Monetary policy aims to achieve the value goals of "promoting stable economic growth" and "promoting reasonable price recovery", accurately responding to the core concerns in the current macroeconomic operation. While focusing on maintaining sufficient financial support to help the economy continue to recover and improve, policies should also address issues such as insufficient demand and weak confidence that may be reflected behind the sustained low price levels. Monetary policy needs to strike a delicate balance between supporting the recovery of the real economy and preventing self reinforcing expectations of deflation. By implementing moderate, prudent, and precise financial regulation, it can achieve cross cyclical goals while balancing countercyclical adjustments. A moderately loose monetary policy is precisely based on changes in economic and financial data, making forward-looking and smooth adjustments, and is an organic combination of countercyclical and cross cyclical adjustments. Flexibly utilize policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity. Traditional tools such as reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rate still have relative adjustment space, and their use will be more forward-looking and proactive, creating a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery. Give full play to the important role of structural monetary policy tools such as supporting agriculture and small businesses, technological innovation, and green and low-carbon development, achieve precise drip irrigation of key areas and weak links, and promote the optimization of credit resources and credit structure allocation. Continue to leverage the role of new policy based financial instruments, guide market interest rates and credit rates of financial institutions to stabilize and decrease, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, effectively reduce the financing costs of the real economy, focus on alleviating the financing pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, stimulate effective credit demand, and increase the vitality of private investment. Efforts should be made to smooth the transmission mechanism and achieve optimized allocation of financial resources. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends not only on the "supply" of the central bank, but more importantly, on the "transmission" of financial institutions and the "demand" of operating entities. The focus of policies must be on promoting smooth transmission mechanisms. Urge and motivate commercial banks and other institutions to take proactive actions, remove internal policy barriers, and effectively transform the liquidity released by the central bank into credit investment growth in key areas and weak links such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, green development, and private economy. Innovate technology financial services, increase financial support for the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and accelerate the cultivation and growth of new driving forces and the development of new quality productivity. Promote the coordination between financial regulatory policies and monetary policies, create an institutional environment of "daring to lend, willing to lend, able to lend, and able to lend", achieve efficient and precise allocation of financial resources, and effectively support high-quality economic development. Balancing internal and external factors, maintaining a reasonable and stable exchange rate. Maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is the cornerstone for maintaining financial security and stabilizing market expectations, and the key to promoting stable development of foreign trade and creating a favorable international environment. We must pay close attention to the impact of changes in the international economic and financial environment and cross-border capital flows on domestic economic and financial stability, avoid abnormal and drastic fluctuations in exchange rates, provide stable monetary and financial conditions for stable growth and risk prevention, and serve high-quality economic development and high-level opening up to the outside world. Give full play to the decisive role of the market in the formation of exchange rates and enhance exchange rate elasticity. Establish a sound macro prudential management system, effectively manage and guide market expectations, and resolutely prevent exchange rate overshoot risks and short-term speculation. Deepen the reform of the system and mechanism for promoting foreign investment, promote the reform and development of the foreign exchange market, and enhance market depth and resilience. Enhancing the consistency and effectiveness of macro policy orientation. In the face of complex and severe domestic and international development environments, the regulatory role of a single policy is limited. If there is a lack of coordination between policies, they may even offset each other or produce unexpected consequences. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically plan and coordinate various policies such as finance, currency, industry, region, technology, and environmental protection in the overall development of the country, and build a macro policy system with coordinated goals, complementary tools, and overlapping effectiveness. This is an inevitable requirement and key guarantee for improving macroeconomic governance efficiency and promoting sustained economic recovery and improvement. Adhere to the dual wheel drive of policy support and reform and innovation. We must attach equal importance to short-term policy support and medium - to long-term reform and innovation, enhance the synergistic effect of reform and policy, achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity in dynamic balance, and promote sustained improvement in economic operation and market expectations. Give full play to the countercyclical adjustment function of macroeconomic policies, stabilize market expectations through precise and effective fiscal and monetary policies, strengthen policy tool innovation and coordination, focus on stabilizing aggregate demand, smoothing economic circulation, boosting market confidence, promoting the formation of more development models led by domestic demand, driven by consumption, and endogenous growth, and ensuring economic security
Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Wang Erdong
Source:dahe.cn
Special statement: if the pictures and texts reproduced or quoted on this site infringe your legitimate rights and interests, please contact this site, and this site will correct and delete them in time. For copyright issues and website cooperation, please contact through outlook new era email:lwxsd@liaowanghn.com