In November, multiple high-frequency data showed a positive trend, leading to an increase in offline consumption heat
2025-12-12
The reporter recently obtained multiple high-frequency data from the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center, which showed that in November, China's consumption, investment, foreign trade and other indicators continued to show a positive trend. Among them, the consumption vitality continues to be released, and the offline consumption heat index increased by 12.0% year-on-year; Infrastructure projects are steadily advancing, and the national project bidding amount and construction machinery operating rate have achieved a month on month increase; The daily average number of international freight flights has increased by 6.2 percentage points compared to October, reflecting to some extent the active foreign trade of high-value products represented by consumer electronics. Since the beginning of winter, many regions have focused on consumer sectors such as automobiles, department stores, catering, and cultural and sports industries, launching a series of special activities to promote consumption. In November, China's offline consumption performance was impressive. The offline consumption heat index constructed by the National Information Center based on representative commercial districts in major cities across the country increased by 12.0% year-on-year, with first tier, second tier, and third tier cities increasing by 16.6%, 9.1%, and 20.4% respectively. In terms of consumption amount, the physical commercial consumption index constructed by the National Information Center based on the "Money Collection Bar" data increased by 0.35% year-on-year. Currently, China's offline consumer market has shown strong resilience, with its structure continuously upgrading towards service-oriented, quality-oriented, and experiential. The vitality of the sinking market is also constantly stimulated, injecting stable momentum into domestic demand growth. ”Xing Yuguan, Deputy Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Big Data Development Department of the National Information Center, said. Infrastructure projects are also steadily advancing, and recently, major projects in many regions have started construction in the fourth quarter. High frequency data shows that in November, the winning bid amount of projects nationwide increased by 13% compared to the previous month; The construction machinery operating rate has increased by 3 percentage points compared to October. At the end of October, the National Development and Reform Commission disclosed that all 500 billion yuan of new policy financial instrument funds had been fully invested, supporting more than 2300 projects with a total investment of about 7 trillion yuan. At the same time, the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local debt balance limit to local governments, including an additional 200 billion yuan of special bond quota, which is specifically used to support investment and construction in some provinces. Xing Yuguan stated that with the precise implementation of new policy based financial instruments and other measures, various projects have been steadily implemented, and policy effects continue to emerge. The investment sector is expected to achieve sustained stabilization and recovery, providing solid support for consolidating the economic fundamentals. From the perspective of external demand, the year-on-year growth rate of China's exports in November exceeded expectations and rebounded. High frequency data such as container throughput and international cargo flight volume also reflect the positive trend of foreign trade. In November, the average daily container throughput and cargo throughput of major ports increased by 7.4% and 1.7% respectively year-on-year, with growth rates increasing by 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points respectively compared to October; The daily average number of international cargo flights increased by 11.2% year-on-year in November, an increase of 6.2 percentage points compared to October. This year, there has been a significant increase in AI investment worldwide, coupled with the evident transformation and upgrading effects of China's manufacturing industry, which has driven the sustained and rapid growth of exports such as chips and new energy vehicles, providing important support for overall exports. Looking ahead, in the short term, chip and automobile exports are expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend. ”Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, said. (New Society)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:Economic Information Daily
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