Under the AI boom, the storage industry is ushering in a 'super cycle'
2025-12-08
Currently, both processor and memory research and development in China have entered a new stage. If processor research and development units can support memory research and development units to form new architecture information processing products based on innovative memory structures, it will be a very valuable job in both the market and technology. One price per day, or even several prices per day. ”The storage merchants in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen describe the recent market situation in this way. In November, flash memory leader SanDisk announced a significant increase in NAND flash contract prices, with a rise of up to 50%, marking at least its third price hike this year. After SanDisk announced a 10% price increase across the entire range in April and implemented a 10% general increase in early September, the 50% monthly increase this time broke market expectations. Related institutions predict that contract prices will continue to rise in December. In this situation, more storage faucets quickly followed up with price increases. Due to soaring procurement costs, downstream storage module factories such as Chuangjian have also suspended quotation and delivery starting from November 7th. The chairman of the company, Shu Chongwan, publicly stated that AI is driving the overall increase in demand for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory. The industry generally believes that this wave of storage price increases is different from the past and will usher in a "super cycle". Driven by drastic changes in supply and demand and adjustments in the balance of industrial chain forces, profound changes are taking place. The imbalance between supply and demand leads to price increases. Journalists have found that the core reason for the frequent price increases of storage leaders is the imbalance between supply and demand. The AI revolution is reshaping the market demand landscape of the storage industry with unprecedented power. Shao Guanglu, Executive Deputy Director of the Expert Advisory Committee of the Internet Society of China, said that agents are developing very fast, and the agent ownership rate of each application (App) is growing rapidly; The number of agents owned and used by everyone is also growing rapidly; The number of agents will exceed the scale of both the app and the human population. The direct reason for the increase in storage prices is the outbreak of artificial intelligence in recent years, which has led to investment in the construction of AI data centers. ”Tang Zhimin, Dean of the School of Computational Microelectronics at Shenzhen University of Technology, introduced that such intelligent computing centers not only require a large amount of purchasing computing chips such as central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs), but also need to be equipped with a large amount of storage. Specifically, the storage requirements of AI servers are several times higher than those of ordinary servers, with a single AI server having a storage configuration of 1.7TB, while traditional servers only have 0.5TB. This directly widens the gap for high-performance products such as high bandwidth storage (HBM), fifth generation memory (DDR5), and enterprise grade solid state drives (SSD). To meet the demand for AI servers, overseas manufacturers such as Samsung and SK Hynix are accelerating their production capacity towards high profit high-end products such as DDR5 and HBM. However, the expansion speed of HBM production capacity lags far behind the growth of demand. According to media reports, SK Hynix's HBM production capacity by the end of 2026 has been pre locked by AI major customers, while Samsung's HBM production capacity is reserved for less than 10% of small and medium-sized manufacturers. At the same time, due to the shift of production capacity towards high-end products, the production capacity of traditional storage products such as fourth generation memory (DDR4) continues to decrease. However, a large number of existing servers and newly deployed servers still heavily rely on mature and stable DDR4 memory, but the supply has significantly decreased, leading to a shortage of supply and soaring prices. DDR4 has seen a cumulative increase of over 200% in six months, while DDR4 for servers has seen a 30% -70% increase in the past month. The abnormal phenomenon of "previous generation product prices surpassing the new generation" has emerged - DDR4 prices are even twice as high as DDR5. In addition, the competitive landscape of the industry is also undergoing key changes. Storage giants have shifted from scale competition to technology depth competition, with pricing power further concentrated towards manufacturers who possess advanced technology. For example, SK Hynix's full range of storage orders for 2026 have been sold out, and the price increase trend may continue until 2026. A chain reaction occurs in downstream industries, and the continuous rise in storage prices triggers a chain reaction in downstream industries. Specifically, the storage module factory is located downstream of the original storage factory. By purchasing storage wafers and designing, packaging, and testing them, standardized storage particles are transformed into terminal storage products, which is a key link in the industry chain and bears the brunt of upstream price increases. During the interview, the reporter learned from two companies, Shenzhen Baiwei Storage Technology Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Langke Technology Co., Ltd., that their products are in line with the market trend, with "upstream price increases and downstream transmission". In this market situation, many leading module manufacturers have decided to suspend shipments and re evaluate quotes. Tang Zhimin candidly stated, "Once we see an increase in demand, it is completely understandable for memory manufacturers to take advantage of the opportunity to raise prices." With the wave of price increases sweeping in, investors' attention is also focused on the storage sector. Since November, over half of the memory concept stocks have received financing funds to increase their holdings, with 6 stocks receiving net purchases of over 100 million yuan in financing within the month, including Jiangbolong, Demingli, Xingsen Technology, and Zhaoyi Innovation. China Merchants Securities disclosed that since the third quarter of 2025, the storage industry has entered an accelerated upward cycle, and the profitability of overseas storage manufacturers has continued to improve. Some domestic storage module companies have quickly turned losses into profits, and profits are expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025. At the same time, the rise in storage prices has also triggered the industry's "cold thinking" on the cost structure of industries such as data centers and consumer electronics. The rise in storage prices has a greater impact on data center products such as servers that use a lot of storage, and a relatively smaller impact on consumer electronics products, "said Tang Zhimin." From a social perspective, the increase in data center construction costs can at least delay some blindly launched construction projects. Relevant parties may consider whether the proposed intelligent computing center can truly generate benefits and whether the added AI computing power can truly be converted into effective and value-added productivity. ”The storage industry is expected to reshuffle, and the surge in storage prices has also triggered further thinking about the semiconductor industry. The deeper reason for the increase in storage prices lies in the internal contradictions within the semiconductor industry. ”Tang Zhimin introduced that processors (CPU, GPU, etc.) and memory (DRAM, NAND flash, etc.) are the two main components that construct information technology infrastructure. Although they are equally important for product development, their positions in the industry chain are completely different, with processors dominating and memory in a subordinate position. This difference in value perception becomes a potential game point for both parties in terms of profit distribution. Tang Zhimin said, "It is generally believed that processors are specialty products and memory is a standard product. The technology content of processors is high, while that of memory is low. In fact, memory products are also designed and manufactured based on the most advanced semiconductor processes, and the difficulty is also high." This change in value perception caused by product scarcity may reshape the storage industry and break the low gross profit and internal competition of memory products. Industry insiders have analyzed that the storage market will also transform from consumer driven to technology driven under the "AI reconstruction". With the increasing demand for memory capacity in large model training and inference, the shortage of HBM and DDR5 memory may further spread to the entire storage industry chain. The market situation is forcing domestic storage enterprises to face difficulties and seize opportunities for high-end breakthroughs amidst challenges. Maimin, a storage merchant in Huaqiangbei, Shenzhen, is optimistic about this. We need to trust domestic storage companies, as their technology is constantly iterating. The monopoly of the storage market by overseas top companies may soon be broken, moving from a few dominant players to a hundred schools of thought competing, "he said. The reporter found that Changxin Technology and Changjiang Storage, which are currently known as the "twin giants of storage" in China, are also expanding their production capacity. Among them, Changxin Technology is leading the localization process of DRAM, while Changjiang Storage has made breakthroughs in 3D NAND technology. Currently, both processor and memory research and development in China have entered a new stage. ”Tang Zhimin said, "If processor research and development units can support memory research and development units to form new architecture information processing products based on innovative memory structures, it will be a very valuable job in both the market and technology
Edit:Momo Responsible editor:Chen zhaozhao
Source:Science and Technology Daily
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