Economy

The central bank has carried out treasury bond bond trading for two consecutive months. December's capital balance is expected

2025-12-05   

In the past November, there have been fluctuations in the funding situation, and the People's Bank of China has comprehensively used various policy tools to ensure a smooth transition of the funding situation across the month. Entering December, although the volatility of the funding situation may increase towards the end of the year, the market generally expects that the central bank will still take multiple measures to protect the funding situation, and the overall funding situation will remain balanced. The People's Bank of China carried out treasury bond bond trading for two consecutive months. On December 2, the People's Bank of China disclosed the liquidity release of various instruments of the Central Bank in November 2025. Data shows that although the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase operation achieved a net withdrawal of 556.2 billion yuan in the same month, the medium and long-term liquidity is still in a net release state. Among them, buyout reverse repurchase and medium-term lending facility (MLF) have net investments of 500 billion yuan and 100 billion yuan respectively. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told Shanghai Securities News reporters that the net withdrawal of 7-day reverse repurchase in November was mainly due to the expiration of the reverse repurchase issued across the month earlier, and the central bank withdrew funds to avoid excessive short-term capital accumulation in the market. In addition, the central bank continues to inject medium-term liquidity into the market on a large scale through MLF and buyout style reverse repurchase, which also reflects the strategy of "closing short and releasing long" to a certain extent. This helps to regulate the capital situation to be in a state of abundant supply, prevent capital from idling, and improve the efficiency of capital utilization. In November, the central bank put a net investment of 50 billion yuan into the purchase and sale of treasury bond bonds in the open market. This is the second consecutive month that the central bank has conducted treasury bond bond trading operations, and the net investment scale of that month has expanded compared with that of October. The central bank has injected long-term liquidity into the banking system through the purchase and sale of treasury bond for two consecutive months. Wang Qing analyzed that: on the one hand, it shows that the current bond market is running well as a whole, which meets the conditions for the central bank to buy and sell treasury bond; On the other hand, the central bank continues to inject long-term liquidity into the market by buying and selling treasury bond, which also shows that the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance and continues to release signals of stable growth, which will help stabilize the macroeconomic operation in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. At the end of the year, the overall balance of funds will still be maintained under the increased protection of the central bank. Although there were slight fluctuations in the funds in November, they remained reasonably abundant overall. Data shows that the monthly average of R001 in November increased by 4 basis points to 1.43% compared to the previous month, while the monthly average of R007 remained relatively stable around 1.50%; The monthly average of DR001 increased by 3 basis points to 1.37%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased by 1 basis point to 1.47%. Western Securities reported in a research report that in early November, fund prices gradually rose, with DR001 rising above 1.50%. Early convergence of funds may be related to the "Double 11" reserve fund; Due to the approaching tax period and seasonal factors in the middle of the month, the balance of funds is relatively tight, and the sentiment index of funds has also risen to the tight range; At the end of the month, the central bank continued to provide net investment to protect the cross month funding situation, and the funding interest rate continued to fall. Looking ahead to December, industry analysis suggests that fund volatility may increase towards the end of the year, but the overall protective attitude of the central bank remains unchanged and will continue to maintain a balanced and stable funding situation through various policy tools. The fixed income team of Tianfeng Securities stated in a research report that in December, the main source of capital fluctuations in history came from cross year disturbances, while during other periods, the capital interest rate fluctuated narrowly around the monthly central range. Since the second half of this year, the capital market has even remained stable across months and beyond the seasonal range. Therefore, the expected increase in capital interest rates at the end of December is generally controllable. Yan Lingyi, a fixed income analyst at Zhongtai Securities, stated in an interview with Shanghai Securities News that considering the limited amount of government bonds to be issued in December and the unchanged attitude of the central bank towards protection, it is expected that the funding rate will not deviate too much from the policy rate. However, the instability of bank liabilities may persist for a long time, and as the end of the year approaches, fund fluctuations may increase. According to a research report by China Galaxy Securities, it is expected that under the protective attitude of the central bank, the overall funding situation will remain balanced and abundant in December, but caution should be exercised against temporary pulses before the New Year. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Shanghai Securities News

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