Economy

Four fold support outlines the long-term positive operation of the A-share market

2025-12-04   

Approaching the critical period of the New Year's market layout, Zhongyuan Securities, Dongguan Securities, Caixin Securities and others have released research reports, all believing that the A-share market has entered a valuation recovery and development cycle, and will usher in a new round of bullish window period. In my opinion, the A-share New Year's Eve market is highly anticipated by many institutions, and the confidence mainly comes from the solid support of the four core dimensions of policy, valuation, profit, and capital. These four supports also clearly outline the long-term positive operation of the A-share market. Firstly, policy coordination efforts are being made to build a "safety cushion" to safeguard the market's stability. The dual empowerment of stable growth policies and capital market reforms provides clear expected support and institutional guarantees for the cross year market trend. At the macro level, as the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, countercyclical and cross cyclical regulation policies continue to be implemented, and the expansion of fiscal policy and the precision of monetary policy continue to improve. This not only injects momentum into the recovery of the real economy, but also creates a stable macro environment for the capital market. In terms of reform, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" proposes to "improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system". This series of arrangements not only effectively hedge external uncertainties, but also provide a solid policy foundation for the launch of the New Year's market. Secondly, the historically low valuation highlights the "cost-effectiveness" and becomes the core attraction for market launch. The historical low valuation advantage of the current A-share market provides sufficient safety margins for capital layout and has become an important confidence for the launch of the new year's market. Thirdly, the economy is making steady progress while consolidating the "fundamentals" and injecting core momentum into the upward trend of the market. The resilient recovery and profit improvement of the real economy are the fundamental support for the opening of the New Year market. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% year-on-year, and the economic operation continued to maintain an overall stable and steady development trend. More importantly, the continuous optimization of the economic structure has provided high-quality growth targets for the capital market - the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, technological breakthroughs and capacity release in new quality productivity related fields accelerated, consumption upgrading and service industry upgrading and expansion continued to advance, and the profit expectations of enterprises in these fields continue to improve, restructuring the market valuation system. Fourthly, precise capital support provides "liquidity" and injects vitality into the market to heat up. Adequate and precise liquidity injection provides necessary financial support for the launch of the cross year market. Since 2025, the People's Bank of China has continuously injected medium and long-term liquidity through tools such as medium-term lending facilities, volume expansion, and buyout reverse repurchase, effectively reducing the financing cost of the capital market and enhancing the attractiveness of equity asset allocation. More noteworthy is that monetary policy adheres to the guidance of "precision, coordination, and balance", guiding financial resources to continue flowing towards key areas such as technological innovation, green and low-carbon development, and boosting consumption, as well as weak links in the economy. This avoids liquidity idling and allows funds to truly serve the recovery of the real economy and the improvement of corporate profits. The resonance of the four dimensions, from policy support to valuation depression, from profit recovery to capital support, has formed a complete logical chain for the long-term improvement of A-shares. Although there are still short-term fluctuations in the A-share market, the "multiple safety cushions" of policies, valuations, profits, and capital construction have provided solid guarantees for the sustained promotion of the market. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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