Economy

The year-end heavyweight conference is about to be held: it is expected that next year's economic work policies will be more proactive

2025-12-04   

The important policy window at the end of the year is approaching. As usual, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in mid to early December to deploy economic work for 2026. The Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is generally held once a month, with meetings related to the economy mainly held in April, July, and December. The three meetings are scheduled for after the start of the new year, the second half of the year, and the following year. As usual in previous years, the Central Economic Work Conference is usually held about a week after the Politburo meeting in December to further deploy the next year's economic work, and the length is also longer. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five Year Plan, is expected to be more proactive in policy setting. The conference is likely to form a systematic deployment from the aspects of consumption expansion, technological innovation, and fiscal and monetary coordination under the general tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability". The core task is to maintain stable growth and expectations in the short term, promote the optimization of industrial and investment structure in the medium term, and focus on building new quality productivity and development models in the long term. Recently, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with five departments, jointly issued the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand to Further Promote Consumption", which has attracted widespread attention. The plan collaborates from multiple dimensions such as supply, demand, channels, and environment to enhance the adaptability and flexibility of the supply system to changes in demand, and to stimulate and meet various consumer demands with high-quality supply. Mingming stated that it is expected that the Central Economic Work Conference will focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption. The institutional arrangements related to the upgrading of consumption structure are expected to be further refined, and the conference may release clearer policy signals in improving the standard system, strengthening quality supervision, promoting brand building, and enhancing the international competitiveness of enterprises. In terms of fiscal and monetary policies, Mingming stated that the main tone of "lenient finance+lenient currency" will continue in 2026. It is expected that fiscal policy will be positively adjusted, and the deficit rate will remain around 4% in 2026; In terms of monetary policy, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. It is expected to be moderately strengthened from the end of 2025 to the first half of 2026, and to maintain loose funding through long-term liquidity tools. Zhang Di, Chief Macro Analyst of China Galaxy Securities, stated that as the year-end policy window approaches, the market's expectations for policies have increased and risk appetite has been restored. The data shows that consumption and exports remain stable, special bonds issued by the financial end totaled 1.35 trillion yuan, MLF on the monetary end continued to be net released, and the yield curve of treasury bond steepened. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:China.org.cn

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