Adequate fiscal and monetary policy space, multiple opportunities for economic growth during the 15th Five Year Plan period
2025-12-01
On November 30th, several experts stated at the annual forum (2025-2026) of the China Macro Economy Forum (CMF) at Renmin University of China that the economic development during the "15th Five Year Plan" period will face many opportunities, including deep urbanization, cutting-edge innovation, and promoting the construction of a modern industrial system, which will bring broad space for future development. From the perspective of policies that support growth, there is ample room for fiscal and monetary policies. In the future, policy funds should be focused on addressing root causes and enhancing terminal demand. Several attending experts believe that China's economic growth during the 15th Five Year Plan period contains multiple opportunities, and it is necessary to promote the construction of a modern industrial system, activate diversified growth drivers, and focus on improving the potential growth level. The forefront of technological innovation is flourishing and will lead the direction of future growth. Emerging enterprises represented by DeepSeek will emerge like mushrooms after rain, bringing growth in the future. ”Yang Ruilong, a national first-class professor at Renmin University of China and co-founder and co chairman of CMF, said. In addition to technological innovation, Yang Ruilong believes that there is still a lot of room for deep urbanization in the future, which will bring about consumption upgrading and economic structural transformation; There is also a lot of room for improving and expanding consumption quality. In the future, we can promote consumption quality and expansion by reforming the income distribution system and introducing new technologies. In addition, structural reforms and the release of demographic quality dividends can all constitute growth points for the future economy. As the starting year of the 15th Five Year Plan, Liu Xiaoguang, Vice Dean of the National Institute of Development and Strategic Studies at Renmin University of China and a key member of CMF, believes that multiple policy dividends and strategic layouts will open up new space for growth. The implementation of the 15th Five Year Plan and the moderate advance investment layout will inject lasting momentum into economic growth; A more proactive fiscal policy combined with a moderately loose monetary policy will effectively support the economic recovery and improvement. The construction of a modern industrial system, the development of a strong domestic market, the promotion of regional coordinated development, technological innovation and the development of new quality productive forces, the promotion of high-quality population development, and the acceleration of the construction of a healthy China can form a considerable investment scale during the 15th Five Year Plan period. The moderate and advanced layout of these investments will greatly boost economic growth in 2026. ”Liu Xiaoguang said. If we stimulate and cultivate the above-mentioned economic growth points, it is possible to increase the potential growth rate of the economy. ”Yang Ruilong said. Looking back at the past, timely strengthening of macroeconomic policies has played a key supporting role in stabilizing growth. Liu Xiaoguang stated that in the past year, macroeconomic policy adjustments have produced positive results: asset price restructuring has accelerated, corporate balance sheets have continued to recover, core CPI has steadily rebounded, the wealth effect brought about by the expansion of A-share assets has gradually emerged, and various positive factors are accelerating their accumulation. Looking ahead, multiple experts believe that there is still ample room for fiscal and monetary policies to be implemented. Liu Xiaoguang analyzed that in terms of monetary policy, since 2025, the LPR has only slightly decreased by 10 basis points in May, and has remained unchanged for six consecutive months. This means that there is further room for monetary policy easing in 2026; In terms of fiscal policy, the continuous promotion of debt repayment and the recovery of fiscal revenue, as well as the optimization of local balance sheet structure, have expanded the space for policy implementation. Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, stated that the expansion of consumer demand should focus on the structural low proportion of terminal consumption, and policy funds should be directed towards breaking through the situation in this field. Liu Shijin suggested that fiscal policy funds should be tilted towards increasing the income of low - and middle-income groups and cultivating development oriented consumption. During the 15th Five Year Plan period, the per capita monthly pension income of urban and rural residents covered by pension insurance will gradually increase by transferring state-owned equity capital to social security funds and entering the capital market operation, providing short-term financial subsidies, and improving the long-term payment system. Promote the formation of a unified land management and resident property rights system in urban and rural areas, and increase the property income of rural residents. To build a strong consumer country, we need to pay attention to two points. First, we need to expand imports, share globally affordable goods and services, and become the world's' largest party '; The second is to develop service consumption, especially development oriented consumption. ”Liu Shijin said. Li Yang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chairman of the National Laboratory of Finance and Development, believes that developing the capital market should be a key focus during the 15th Five Year Plan period, with emphasis on five aspects: combining investment and financing; To develop derivatives; We need to strengthen the market value management of listed companies, maintain a healthy capital structure through reasonable operations, investments, and strategic adjustments, and adjust the shareholder structure through issuing and repurchasing shares; Strengthen cash dividends and shareholder repurchases; We should attach importance to the tokenization (RWA) market. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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