Recently, the international gold price has shown a trend of first rising and then falling. According to Wind Information data, the spot price of London gold continued to rise from November 10th to November 12th, and on November 13th, it surged to $4245.22 per ounce before beginning to decline. On November 18th, as of the time of press (the same below), the London spot gold price fell below the $4000/ounce mark during trading, dropping to a low of $3997.658/ounce. Affected by international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices have also experienced a significant decline. When I saw that the price of gold jewelry fell below 1300 yuan/gram, I came over to take a look, afraid that if we wait any longer, the price will rise again. "On November 18th, Ms. Liang, who was selecting jewelry at a Chow Tai Fook store in Fengtai District, Beijing, told reporters that she had recently been" planted "with the brand's Four Star series jewelry on a certain social media platform and wanted to take advantage of the downturn in gold prices to buy it. It is reported that the gold jewelry price of the brand rose to a maximum of 1333 yuan last week, and has been lowered to 1288 yuan on November 18th. The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, told reporters that two major factors have jointly led to the recent poor performance of international gold prices: on the one hand, the previous risk aversion sentiment has weakened the support for gold prices; On the other hand, important economic data from the United States has not yet resumed publication, and investors have inconsistent expectations for the labor market and US inflation trends, as well as fluctuating expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December. The market's risk aversion has significantly weakened. Last week, international gold prices rose first and then fell. According to Wind Information data, from November 10th to November 12th, London spot gold prices closed at $4115.53 per ounce, $4125.475 per ounce, and $4194.605 per ounce, respectively. On November 13th, the London spot gold price rose to a high of $4245.22 per ounce before falling back, and closed the day at $4170.865 per ounce. On November 14th, London spot gold prices further fell, closing at $4082.159 per ounce. The downward trend has continued since the beginning of this week. On November 17th, the London spot gold price closed at $4044.505 per ounce; On November 18th, the intraday low fell to $3997.658 per ounce. Fan Rui, head of the Nonferrous Research Group of Guoyuan Futures, told reporters that the recent decline in international gold prices is mainly due to the significant weakening of market risk aversion. Gold has lost the support of its previous risk aversion and its price performance is weak. Qu Rui, Senior Deputy Director of Research and Development Department at Dongfang Jincheng, stated in an interview with reporters that the recent decline in international gold prices is due to the hawkish remarks made by several Federal Reserve officials last week. The market predicts that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is less than 50%. In addition, technology stocks represented by AI (artificial intelligence) in the United States have been sold off, causing market panic and forcing investors to sell profitable assets including gold. As a result, gold prices have come under pressure and fallen. In addition, after a significant rebound in gold prices last week, some funds took profits, which further led to a continued decline in gold prices. In addition, several Federal Reserve officials have recently emphasized that there should be no rush to cut interest rates. For example, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan stated that she does not support the Fed cutting interest rates again in December unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in US inflation levels. Such hawkish remarks have led to a decrease in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December. According to the Federal Reserve Watch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, on November 18th, the probability of the market betting that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December has risen to 57.1%. In the short term or maintaining a volatile pattern in the precious metal "brotherhood", silver's performance is similar to that of gold. According to Wind Information data, the spot price of London silver continued to rise from November 10th to November 12th. On November 13th, the London silver spot price rose to a high of $54.394/ounce during trading, and then began to turn downwards. On November 18th, the spot price of London silver hovered around $50 per ounce. In history, the trend of silver has been relatively consistent with that of gold, and the recent weak performance of silver has also been dragged down by the weakening of gold prices. ”Clearly stated. Since the beginning of this year, silver has shown strong performance, continuing to climb from $28.894 per ounce in early January, and the upward speed of the price further accelerated in late August. On October 17th, the spot price of silver in London rose to a record high of $54.468 per ounce during trading. Fan Rui stated that previously, the price of gold had been relatively strong compared to silver. With the continuous rise of gold prices, the marginal risk of investment has increased, while the relatively undervalued price of silver has made it more cost-effective for investment in the second half of the year. For the later trend, Fan Rui believes that both international gold and silver prices are currently in a short-term decline process. However, due to the upcoming release of multiple US economic data and the uncertainty in the macro market, there is relatively limited room for further price declines in the short term. It is necessary to closely monitor the recent macroeconomic data performance of the United States. In the long run, with the support of multiple factors such as central bank gold purchases, demand for gold currency attributes, and anti inflation needs, international gold and silver prices still have the potential to rise, but the increase will tend to slow down. Qu Rui predicts that in the short term, both international gold and silver prices will maintain a volatile pattern, mainly due to the high uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut path. However, in the medium to long term, the core logic supporting the rise of gold and silver has not changed: concerns about US fiscal sustainability have not dissipated, the volatility of US bond yields has weakened the attractiveness of US dollar assets, and global central banks continue to allocate gold demand, which will continue to drive up gold prices; Factors such as the supply-demand gap and the unchanged upward trend of gold will support the sustained rise of silver prices. (New Society)