New Trends and Characteristics of Urban Population Development in China
2025-11-17
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has clearly put forward important deployments such as "deepening the people-oriented new urbanization", which has pointed out the direction for the high-quality development of urbanization in China during the 15th Five Year Plan period. Accurately grasping the new trends and characteristics of China's urban population development is not only related to a profound insight into the new opportunities and potentials of urbanization, but also to a proper response to development risks. Using the data available from previous national population censuses, this paper analyzes the change trend and development potential of urban population in the four dimensions of total population, structure, quality and distribution, and explores the problems and challenges derived from the process of Chinese path to modernization. The total population has increased, and the demographic dividend has not disappeared. National census data shows that the total urban population in China continues to grow, and the urbanization rate is steadily increasing. The urban population has increased from 77.26 million in 1953 to 943.5 million in 2024, and its proportion in the total population of the country has risen from 13.26% to 67.00%. Along with the deepening of urbanization and the expansion of urban population in China, the fertility level of urban women has already entered a stage of low and ultra-low fertility rates. Around 1990, China's fertility rate had dropped to the replacement level of 2.1, and the fertility rate of urban women had fallen below the replacement level; From 2000 to 2010, the fertility rate of urban women of childbearing age remained below 1, which is related to the implementation of strict family planning policies and people's spontaneous decision to have fewer children in pursuit of a better life in order to reduce living costs and increase development opportunities. After 2010, thanks to the successive implementation of the "separate two child" and "comprehensive two child" policies, the desire to have a second child was concentrated in 2016. The rebound in fertility rates and rural-urban migration of population have led to a significant increase in the size of China's urban population. On the one hand, the direct increase in urban newborns can inject fresh blood into the future young labor force; On the other hand, the increase in fertility rates in rural areas also provides a potential source of vitality for urbanization. In other words, this is not only conducive to leveraging economies of scale and promoting the improvement of labor productivity, but also helps accumulate human capital, promote knowledge sharing, drive industrial structure transformation and upgrading, and stimulate the creative and innovative vitality of the population. The improvement of quality and the solid foundation of talent dividends are the core dimensions of high-quality population development, and the leap in population quality is one of the most iconic features. In the process of continuous urbanization, the health level and educational endowment of China's urban population continue to improve, which not only constitutes an important indicator of high-quality population development, but also further consolidates the foundation of current and future high-quality population development, helps to build new talent advantages, and injects strong momentum into high-quality population development. Firstly, the health level has significantly improved. Since 2010, the health level of elderly people aged 60 and above in urban areas has significantly improved. According to census data, the proportion of urban elderly people who self assess themselves as healthy or basically healthy has increased from 87.69% in 2010 to 90.15% in 2020. This indicates the profound impact of social factors on the quality of life of the elderly - the abundant medical and health resources in urban areas have significantly improved the accessibility of medical services for the elderly; Moreover, the generally high education level and economic income of the elderly population in urban areas not only enhance their purchasing power in medical services, but also improve their awareness of health care information and the efficiency of utilizing medical and health resources. Secondly, the level of education has significantly improved and human capital has rapidly increased. The three core indicators of illiteracy rate, proportion of higher education, and years of education reveal that the education level of urban population has achieved a leapfrog improvement. Specifically, the illiteracy rate among the urban population continues to decline. From 1964 to 2020, the illiteracy rate among the urban population decreased from 26.63% to 1.79%. Secondly, the proportion of urban population with higher education has significantly increased, rising from less than 5% in 1964 to around 1/4 in 2020, becoming the education stage with the largest increase and far exceeding the national average level (16.51%). Thirdly, the average length of education has significantly increased. From 1964 to 2020, the average length of education for the urban population increased from 5.67 years to 10.31 years; In 2022, the average educational years of the urban labor force will reach 11.61 years. However, further optimization of educational resource allocation is needed in the future to promote balanced development of regional education. The structure is relatively balanced and the momentum of sustainable development is strong. Although the birth rate of urban population and the fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China are lower than those in rural areas, their gender and age structures are relatively better. This is of great significance for actively responding to population aging and promoting sustainable economic and social development. Firstly, the gender ratio of urban population has sharply decreased to a stable decline, and the gender structure is more balanced. The gender ratio of the total urban population rapidly decreased from 1953 to 1982, and then entered a phase of gradual decline, reaching 103.08 in 2020; The gender ratio of rural population has slowly increased, from 103.55 in 1953 to 107.91 in 2020. It is worth noting that from 2000 to 2010, the gender ratio of urban and rural populations underwent a convergence stage and then diverged again, and the gender imbalance reversed from "high in urban areas and low in rural areas" to "high in rural areas and low in urban areas". Secondly, the age structure is increasingly aging, but the total labor force remains large. Firstly, the proportion of the working age population aged 15-64 in urban areas has shown an overall upward trend, reaching a peak of 78.12% in 2010. Although it has decreased slightly in 2020, it still exceeds 70%; The size of the working age population in urban areas also surpassed that in rural areas before 2010, and the supply of labor resources is still sufficient. Secondly, rural areas entered an aging society in 2000 (7.50% of the population aged 65 and above) and urban areas in 2010 (7.80% of the population aged 65 and above). The spatial distribution is steadily optimizing, and the industrial distribution is becoming increasingly reasonable. With the deepening of the new urbanization strategy, the spatial distribution of urban population is gradually optimizing. The reform of China's registered residence system and the equalization of public services have enhanced the agglomeration capacity of small and medium-sized urban population, and the population size of megacities has been reasonably controlled, forming a more balanced urban system pattern. At the same time, the synergy between industrial layout and population distribution has significantly improved, and the development of county-level towns is driving the continuous optimization of regional population distribution. Firstly, the eastern region remains a concentrated area of urban population, while the proportion of urban population in the central and western regions has significantly increased. The changes in population distribution between urban and rural areas have both similarities and differences. The population aggregation characteristics in urban areas are more pronounced compared to rural areas. The urban population in the eastern region continues to increase, from 34.56 million in 1953 to 411.08 million in 2023, making it the core distribution area of urban population; Although the size of urban population in Northeast China is increasing, its increment is significantly smaller than other regions, and its proportion in the total urban population will drop to the lowest value of 7.14% in 2023; The urban population in the central and western regions has been increasing year by year, with an increase of 209.04 million and 213.41 million respectively over the past 70 years. Although the rural population is relatively large in the eastern region, its distribution is not concentrated here; The population size and proportion of rural areas in the central and western regions, especially in the western regions, are approaching or even surpassing those in the eastern regions. From 2000 to 2010, the western regions have already surpassed the eastern regions. The geographical environment and economic development jointly shape the distribution of urban and rural populations. The economic and social development level in the western region is relatively lagging behind, and the base and increment of urban and rural population are relatively small; The eastern region has a relatively high level of economic and social development, with a high concentration of urban population. However, over time, the size and proportion of urban population in the central and western regions have steadily increased, while the proportion of urban population in the eastern region has decreased, and the spatial distribution of urban population is gradually optimizing. Secondly, the population moving to urban areas is increasing year by year, and employment remains the main reason for mobility. The changes in population distribution are closely related to population migration and mobility. From 1990 to 2020, the population flowing into urban areas surged from 28.22 million to 331.17 million, while the population flowing into rural areas increased from 5.9 million to 44.64 million. During the same period, the proportion of population flowing to urban areas rose from 9.53% to 36.80% of the total urban population, while the proportion of population flowing to rural areas increased from less than 1% to 8.76%, and the urban-rural gap has been widening year by year. If we compare the urban-rural distribution of the floating population, we can also find that the proportion of floating population in urban areas exceeds 4/5 of the total floating population in China, while the rural-urban floating population accounts for more than 60%. This shows that China's floating population exhibits obvious urban agglomeration characteristics, and rural areas are the main source of floating population. Thirdly, the commercial service industry has become the main choice for employment, and the industrial distribution of urban population is more reasonable. The employment population to some extent reflects the utilization of labor resources. At the end of 2024, the number of employed people in urban areas was 473.45 million, accounting for 64.5% of the total employed population. The change in urban and rural employment population shows that the proportion of urban employment population among the working age population aged 15-64 in urban areas has decreased from 80.58% in 1982 to 64.57% in 2020. In terms of industry distribution, the urban population has shifted from being dominated by the secondary industry to being dominated by the tertiary industry. In 2000, the proportion of employed population in the tertiary industry in urban areas surpassed that of the secondary industry, ranking first. In 2020, the proportion of the tertiary industry continued to rise to 61.42%. The proportion of the primary industry in rural areas has decreased but remained the highest, while the proportion of the tertiary industry has increased but remained the lowest. The urban population relies on resource advantages to tilt towards non-agricultural industries, with commerce and service industries becoming the main employment choices, and employment distribution becoming more reasonable. This is related to agricultural mechanization, rural labor transfer, industrial transformation, and expansion of modern service industries. At the same time, urban education resources and labor skills also provide support for industrial upgrading. Currently, the structural characteristics and evolutionary trends of China's urban population not only nurture new opportunities for high-quality development, but also give rise to deep-seated challenges. While grasping the opportunity, we should resolve the risk contradiction and become the focus and breakthrough point of supporting Chinese path to modernization with high-quality urban population development. Authors: Yang Juhua (School of Ethnology and Sociology, Central University for Nationalities), Liu Xueling (School of Ethnology and Sociology, Central University for Nationalities)
Edit:Luoyu Responsible editor:Wang Erdong
Source:Beijing Daily
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