Economy

Expand the space for countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy

2025-11-17   

Recently, the People's Bank of China released the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Third Quarter of 2025", which detailed the interest rate transmission mechanism of the central bank's policy interest rate through the financial system to different segmented markets through a column. It is widely believed in the industry that maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship is an objective need for a smooth transmission mechanism of interest rates in the future, which can help improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce capital idle arbitrage. Interest rate, in essence, is the rate of return on funds. Due to the different maturity, risk, liquidity and other attributes of different financial instruments, there are numerous interest rate varieties in economic activities, and the level of interest rates also varies, thus forming a certain comparative relationship. The relationship between interest rates and their price ratios has important guiding significance for macroeconomic equilibrium and resource allocation. The effective operation of a market-oriented interest rate system requires maintaining reasonable price ratios between various interest rates. ”Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher of the China Merchants Association, stated that ideally, under the guidance of policy interest rates, various interest rates should maintain a reasonable comparative relationship and linkage, reflecting changes in maturity, risk, liquidity, and other patterns, resulting in higher efficiency in financial resource allocation. For example, banks need to maintain a reasonable term spread between the interest rates of fixed deposits with different maturities; The interest rates of loans and bonds, wealth management and deposits also need to be more coordinated. However, in actual operation, various financial markets will experience periodic fluctuations, and sometimes due to irrational factors, a large number of entities will concentrate on allocating certain types of assets, coupled with herd behavior, which can lead to significant fluctuations in asset returns. The decline in bond market yields in previous years, the increase in capital market activity this year, and the rebound in housing rental to sales ratios in recent years are essentially manifestations of changes in the relationship between different asset returns. Strengthening policy coordination, enhancing the implementation of interest rate policies, and maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship in the future are also important links for the central bank to facilitate the transmission of monetary policy. The report points out that there are several important interest rate comparison relationships that need attention. One is the relationship between the central bank's policy interest rate and market interest rate. The central bank's policy interest rate reflects the intention of macroeconomic regulation. With a smooth transmission mechanism of interest rates, the short-term money market interest rate will revolve around the policy interest rate center and affect the level of the entire market interest rate through the financial system transmission. If the market interest rate changes too early or too late compared to the central bank's policy interest rate, the adjustment range is too large or too small, or even the direction of change is inconsistent, and the price relationship deviates significantly from the reasonable range, the effectiveness of interest rate transmission will be affected. The second is the relationship between interest rates on the asset and liability sides of commercial banks. The deposit interest rate is the main debt cost ratio of a bank, while the loan interest rate is the main asset return rate of a bank. The deposit and loan interest rates generally change in the same direction, but due to factors such as differences in repricing cycles and competition within banks, the rapid decline in loan interest rates and slow decline in deposit interest rates will compress the net interest margin of banks and constrain their ability to continue supporting the real economy. The third is the relationship between the returns on different types of assets. Loans and bonds are both important components of bank assets, and as different financing methods, it is normal for loan interest rates and bond yields to have certain differences. However, for the same operating entity, the interest rate for bond financing and loan interest rate should theoretically not differ too much. At the same time, with the continuous enrichment of asset management products such as wealth management in China, the allocation of financial assets such as wealth management and funds by enterprises and residents will become more diversified. The effective role of interest rate regulation mechanisms also requires more coordination of interest rates among various financial markets. The fourth is the relationship between different term interest rates. The difference between short-term and long-term interest rates reflects the term premium. In general, banks will adjust the interest rates of fixed deposits with different maturities in a coordinated manner and maintain a reasonable term spread. The relationship between different risk interest rates. The difference in financing costs among financing entities with different credit ratings reflects the risk premium. Generally speaking, the higher the credit rating of the financing entity, the lower the financing interest rate. The yield of treasury bond reflects the national credit and is considered as a risk-free interest rate. If the corporate financing interest rate is lower than the yield of treasury bond, it means that the corporate credit is better than the national credit, which violates the principle of risk pricing and is unreasonable and unsustainable. In recent years, in order to support the stable net interest margin of banks, regulatory guidance has strengthened interest rate management, and oppose 'inward competition', which has achieved significant results. ”Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the central bank pays close attention to the above five groups of interest rate price relationship, indicating that the next step will continue to implement measures such as guiding the interest rate self-discipline mechanism to rectify illegal manual interest supplement, standardizing interbank deposit interest rate pricing, establishing a deposit bidding interest rate reporting mechanism, adding "bottom line clause" in the corporate deposit service agreement, urging banks not to issue loans with after tax interest rates lower than the yield of treasury bond of the same period, and reasonably determining loan interest rates according to operating costs; And continue to carry out enforcement inspections on interest rate policies, from "timely implementation" in the second quarter to "continuous implementation" in the third quarter, strengthen on-site evaluation of the implementation of interest rate policies and self-discipline agreements of financial institutions, in order to maintain the net interest margin of commercial banks at a reasonable level and broaden the space for countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Economic Daily

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