Policy window period combined with technological breakthroughs, China's monthly new energy vehicle sales account for over 50% for the first time
2025-11-14
Recently, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in October 2025, the monthly new car sales of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 50% of the total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6%, marking a new stage in the Chinese automobile market dominated by new energy vehicles. Driven by the continuous release of policy dividends and accelerated technological iteration, new energy vehicles have become the mainstream choice in the market. Benefiting from the resonance between policies and markets, the statistical data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers outlines a clear growth curve for new energy vehicles. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.5% and 3%; The production and sales performance of new energy vehicles is more outstanding, with 1.772 million and 1.715 million units respectively, a month on month increase of 9.6% and 6.9%, and a year-on-year increase of over 20%. From cumulative data, in the first 10 months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, an increase of 33.1% and 32.7% year-on-year, respectively. The proportion of sales to total automobile sales has increased to 46.7%, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target. This breakthrough is the result of the combined effect of policy guidance and market maturity. ”Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, told a reporter from China Securities News that the subsidy policy for trade in of old vehicles in the automotive industry has a wide coverage and strong implementation, effectively activating the demand for replacement in the existing market, especially in third - and fourth tier cities where the driving effect is significant; The early release of the policy of halving the purchase tax on new energy vehicles in 2026 has prompted some consumers to accelerate their car purchase decisions, forming a temporary consumption peak. It is worth noting that this breakthrough in penetration rate has the characteristic of full category coverage. The relevant person in charge of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers added that previously, only the single category of new energy passenger vehicles had achieved a monthly penetration rate of over 50%, while the October data covered the commercial vehicle field, indicating that the new energy transformation has accelerated comprehensively in commercial scenarios such as logistics and passenger transportation, and the industry has entered a deep water zone of transformation. Behind the increasing differentiation of car companies and the sales data of new engines for export growth is the strong leadership of top car companies and the deep restructuring of the market structure. From the latest performance in 2024 and 2025, independent brands have formed an absolute dominant position. BYD continues to lead the market, winning the championship with an annual sales volume of 4.272 million vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41.26%. Its strategic layout of 100% new energy for all models has achieved significant results. Geely Automobile demonstrated explosive growth with a year-on-year increase of 92% in new energy vehicle sales. In 2024, the sales of new energy vehicles reached 888000 units, and its Galaxy series sold nearly 500000 units throughout the year. The transformation effectiveness of traditional automobile groups varies significantly. SAIC Group's sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.234 million units in 2024, maintaining its scale advantage but with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9% lower than the industry average; Changan Automobile achieved overtaking on curves, with sales of new energy vehicles reaching 734000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. The overseas market also made simultaneous efforts, exporting 536000 units throughout the year, exceeding the established target. Export has become an important growth pole in the field of new energy vehicles. From the performance of the company last year, Chery won the championship with an annual export volume of 1.144 million vehicles, and overseas sales accounted for nearly 50%; SAIC Motor has consolidated its advantage in the European and American markets with an annual sales volume of 240000 vehicles under the MG brand; Although BYD currently ranks fifth in export volume, its export volume of 433000 vehicles has increased by over 70% year-on-year. The successive production of its overseas factories in Thailand, Hungary, and other countries further unleashes its potential in overseas markets. Statistics show that in the first 10 months of 2025, China's new energy vehicle exports reached 2.014 million units, a year-on-year increase of 90.4%, with an average monthly export volume of 200000 units. For the annual market trend, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) has given an optimistic expectation that China's automobile production and sales will reach 34 million units by 2025, setting a new historical high. Based on the production and sales progress of the first 10 months, the annual sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 16 million units, and the export volume will hit the 2.5 million unit mark. Chen Shihua emphasized that with the cost reduction and range improvement brought about by battery technology iteration, as well as the improvement of charging infrastructure, the new energy vehicle market will form a benign development pattern of "policy retreat and market supplementation", with sufficient long-term growth momentum. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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