The year-on-year decrease in CPI in October has turned from a decrease to an increase, and the year-on-year decrease in PPI has narrowed
2025-11-10
On November 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in October this year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month on month and 0.2% year-on-year; The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers increased by 0.1% month on month from being flat in September, and decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. Pang Ming, a specially appointed senior researcher at the National Finance and Development Laboratory, told reporters that the price data in October shows that China's economic vitality is steadily increasing and the potential for domestic demand is constantly being released. Looking ahead, with the continued support of macroeconomic policies, sustained recovery of market confidence, comprehensive expansion of domestic demand, and the creation of effective demand through high-quality supply, the overall price center will reach a new level of moderate upward movement. The expansion of CPI month on month growth data shows that in October, CPI rose by 0.2% month on month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from September and slightly higher than seasonal levels. Specifically, service prices have shifted from a 0.3% decrease in September to a 0.2% increase, which is 0.2 percentage points higher than the seasonal level and affects the CPI's month on month increase by approximately 0.07 percentage points. In terms of service, with the overlapping of National Day and Mid Autumn Festival, there is a strong demand for travel. Hotel accommodation, plane tickets, and tourism prices have increased by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively, all of which are higher than seasonal levels; Medical service prices have increased by 0.5%. The increase in food prices is higher than seasonal. Food prices increased by 0.3%, with a seasonal decrease of 0.1 percentage points. During the holiday season, consumer demand increased, with prices of fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, shrimp and crab, and beef rising between 0.5% and 4.3%. The prices of industrial consumer goods are stable with some increase. Energy prices decreased by 0.4%, while industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.3%, resulting in a month on month increase of approximately 0.07 percentage points in CPI. Among them, due to the rise in international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 10.2%. From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI in October changed from a decrease of 0.3% in September to an increase of 0.2%. Among them, food and energy prices are still at a low level, but the decline has narrowed. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, narrowing the decline by 1.5 percentage points compared to September, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of approximately 0.54 percentage points in CPI. Energy prices decreased by 2.4%, with gasoline prices dropping by 5.5%, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of approximately 0.18 percentage points in CPI. It is worth noting that in October, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.2% year-on-year, expanding for the sixth consecutive month and reaching its highest level since March 2024. The improvement of various price data indicators is comprehensive, stable, and better than seasonal levels, reflecting the further smooth circulation of China's economy and the improvement of growth quality. ”Pang Ming said. Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, told reporters that the current price level continues to be in a stable, medium, and low state, which also provides sufficient space for the continued strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies to promote consumption and effectively hedge against external fluctuations in the fourth quarter. The data shows that in October, PPI increased by 0.1% compared to September, marking the first increase of the year. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that the main characteristics of the month on month operation of PPI in October were: firstly, the improvement of supply and demand relations led to price increases in some industries. The second factor is the differentiation of price trends in domestic non-ferrous metal and petroleum related industries due to input factors. In October, PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to September, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing. Dong Lijuan analyzed that firstly, the capacity governance of key industries continues to advance, and the year-on-year price decline in related industries has narrowed. The increase in production capacity verification and safety supervision, coupled with the increase in winter storage replenishment and electricity demand, has narrowed the year-on-year decline in coal mining and washing industry prices by 1.2 percentage points compared to September. The market competition order continues to optimize, and outdated production capacity is gradually phased out. The price reductions in photovoltaic equipment and component manufacturing, battery manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing have narrowed by 1.4 percentage points, 1.3 percentage points, and 0.7 percentage points, respectively; The second is to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system and orderly release of consumption potential, driving up prices in related industries year-on-year. Technological innovation empowers industrial transformation and upgrading, and the intelligent, green, and integrated development of manufacturing industry is improving. The prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have increased by 6.8% year-on-year, the manufacturing prices of electronic special materials have increased by 2.3%, the prices of microwave communication equipment have increased by 1.8%, the manufacturing prices of ships and related equipment have increased by 0.9%, the comprehensive utilization of waste resources industry prices have increased by 0.7%, and the manufacturing prices of aircraft have increased by 0.5%. The series of policies and measures to boost consumption have continued to take effect, with manufacturing prices for arts, crafts, and ceremonial products rising by 18.4%, sports balls rising by 3.3%, nutritional food rising by 2.1%, and beverages rising by 0.4%. In Pang Ming's view, the improvement in orders brought about by the recovery of domestic demand will continue to provide a bottom line for industrial product prices. With the deepening of policies such as "anti internal competition", the competitive landscape of some industries is expected to continue to optimize, which will help stabilize product prices. Meanwhile, although there is uncertainty in global commodity prices, their impact on domestic industrial product prices is relatively controllable under the support of stable growth policies in China. Feng Lin stated that PPI has risen for the first time on a month on year basis, and the year-on-year decline has further narrowed, mainly due to the improvement of supply and demand in some industries driven by the "anti internal competition", which has provided strong support for prices in related industries. At the same time, the rise in non-ferrous metal prices has driven up prices in related industries in China, and factors such as holiday consumption have pushed the prices of daily necessities to stop falling month on month, which has also played a driving role in the month on month increase in PPI. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Securities Daily
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