The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China recently proposed to build a scientific and stable monetary policy system during a meeting to convey and study the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. Experts say that in the next stage, monetary policy will adhere to a supportive stance, accurately grasp the intensity, timing, and pace of policy implementation based on the economic situation, dynamically improve the policy framework, strengthen implementation transmission and release efficiency, and better support high-quality economic development. Since the beginning of this year, monetary policy has effectively supported the continued stable and positive trend of the real economy by focusing on handling the "three major relationships". Experts say that in the subsequent monetary policy regulation, the central bank will pay more attention to handling the relationship between short-term and long-term, supporting real economic growth and maintaining the health of the financial industry itself, as well as internal and external factors. From both short-term and long-term perspectives, monetary policy should provide necessary support for the current economic recovery and avoid overdrawing long-term growth potential. Dong Ximiao, Chief Researcher of the China Merchants Association, predicts that in the next stage, the central bank will flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, while maintaining policy determination and stabilizing market expectations. From the perspective of supporting the growth of the real economy and maintaining the health of the financial industry itself, Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, stated that maintaining the health of the financial industry reflects the central bank's attention to the net interest margin of commercial banks and the resulting business sustainability. In dealing with internal and external relationships, the market generally believes that although there is uncertainty in the global financial market, China's monetary policy has sufficient conditions to always adhere to the "self-centered" approach while balancing internal and external factors. In the next stage, China's monetary policy will continue to adhere to the principle of 'self centeredness', balance internal and external factors, and continue to implement a refined and moderately loose monetary policy. ”Dong Ximiao said. Optimizing the liquidity term structure and grasping the intensity, timing, and pace of monetary policy are inherent requirements for promoting sustained stability and improvement in the economy. The market generally believes that there is still room and possibility for continued vigorous implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the future. In terms of total volume, experts suggest that the central bank is expected to strengthen its regulation of short-term market liquidity through various monetary policy tools such as reverse repurchase and buyout reverse repurchase; Through measures such as MLF (Medium Term Lending Facility) operations and reserve requirement ratio cuts, we will continue to release medium and long-term liquidity, optimize the maturity structure of liquidity, maintain sufficient liquidity, and better guide financial institutions to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links. "The fourth quarter of this year is a critical period for the policy of stabilizing growth. The central bank may inject long-term liquidity into the banking system by resuming the trading of treasury bond, and guide financial institutions to increase credit. ”Dong Ximiao said. Lian Ping, President and Chief Economist of Guangkai's Chief Industry Research Institute, suggested that the reserve requirement ratio could be lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter of this year, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity. Next year, the reserve requirement ratio could be further lowered by 0.5-1.0 percentage points, supporting the pre issuance of government bonds and sending a positive policy signal to the market to improve expectations and enhance confidence. In terms of pricing, Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that monetary policy may pay more attention to the price based regulatory role of policy interest rates, continuously guide the reduction of financing costs for enterprises and residents, and stimulate the endogenous financing demand of market entities. This is one of the important driving points for promoting consumption, expanding investment, and stabilizing the real estate market. In terms of structure, Wang Qing believes that the focus of the next five years is to vigorously develop technology finance, mainly including banks increasing their investment in technology loans, expanding the scale of science and technology innovation bond issuance, encouraging equity financing of technology-based enterprises, etc. Relevant departments may guide more funds to flow into the fields of technology innovation and industrial transformation and upgrading through the establishment and optimization of structural monetary policy tools, adjustment of financial institution assessment indicators, and other means. The central bank's party committee meeting proposed to continuously improve the transmission effect of monetary policy, dynamically improve the monetary policy framework, and strengthen the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. Experts believe that this is one of the important links in the transition of monetary policy from "policy-making" to "effectiveness implementation". The current transmission efficiency of interest rates has significantly improved, which is directly reflected in the sustained low loan interest rates. The latest data released by the central bank shows that the weighted average interest rate for new loans (in domestic and foreign currencies) issued by enterprises in September was about 3.1%, which is about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year; The weighted average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans (in domestic and foreign currencies) is about 3.1%, which is about 25 basis points lower than the same period last year. Strengthening communication with the market and stabilizing market expectations are also important guarantees for enhancing the implementation and transmission of monetary policy. Zhang Jiqiang, Director of Huatai Securities Research Institute, stated that in recent years, the communication between the central bank and other departments and the market has become more frequent. Through quarterly reports, routine briefings, and forward-looking guidance, the market expectations have been continuously stabilized. This can reduce unnecessary market volatility and enhance policy transmission efficiency, "he said. Looking ahead, monetary policy still needs to continue to strengthen its coordination and cooperation with fiscal policy, form a policy synergy, and enhance its transmission effect. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that the coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy is expected to be further strengthened during the 15th Five Year Plan period. Continuous fiscal expansion and moderate monetary easing are not only guarantees for achieving an increase in economic aggregate, but also support for further optimizing the structure. We will continue to adhere to the coordinated efforts of fiscal, monetary and other policies in the future. For example, when supporting major projects, the government provides capital and interest subsidies, while monetary and financial instruments provide supporting financing, forming a synergy. ”Zhang Jiqiang said. In addition, in terms of monetary policy framework, the head of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China recently said that the next step would be to continue to improve the modern monetary policy framework with Chinese characteristics, constantly improve the adaptability and effectiveness of financial support for high-quality development of the real economy, and support Chinese path to modernization with high-quality financial development. (New Society)