Economy

Global trading volume jumps to 8.5%, new opportunity window for RMB internationalization has arrived

2025-10-24   

The internationalization process of the Renminbi has taken another crucial step forward. The recent triennial survey released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that the global trading volume of the renminbi has soared to $817 billion per day, accounting for 8.5% of global currency market transactions. At the same time, as the fifth largest currency in terms of global trading volume, the gap between the Chinese yuan and the fourth ranked British pound is rapidly narrowing - the trading share of the British pound has decreased from 12.9% to 10.2%. This progress demonstrates the steady momentum of RMB internationalization. In recent years, the internationalization of the RMB has been promoted at multiple levels, achieving new breakthroughs in trade settlement, investment and financing fields. The industry believes that with the clear trend of multipolarity in the international monetary system, the RMB may usher in an important window of opportunity to promote internationalization. Looking at the internationalization of the renminbi from five dimensions, if we take a longer period of time, the steady improvement of the renminbi's international status has been an important feature of the transformation of the international monetary system in the past 20 years. ”The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, recently stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office. Since the 2008 international financial crisis, the international monetary system, which is mainly based on the US dollar, has exposed significant vulnerabilities. A new round of multipolarization of the international monetary system has begun, and the internationalization of the renminbi has also begun. After more than a decade of development, the internationalization level of the RMB has steadily improved. Today's RMB has become the largest settlement currency for China's external balance of payments, the second largest trade financing currency in the world, and the third largest payment currency. It ranks third in the weight of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). ——As a currency for "trading" and "settlement", its usage has become more widespread. According to data from the People's Bank of China, in the first half of 2025, the total amount of RMB cross-border receipts and payments reached 35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Among them, the total amount of cross-border RMB receipts and payments for goods trade was 6.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 28% of the total amount of domestic and foreign currency cross-border receipts and payments during the same period, and both the amount and proportion of receipts and payments were at the best level in history. ——As an "investment" and "financing" currency, its attractiveness continues to increase. As of the end of July this year, foreign entities held domestic RMB financial assets exceeding 10 trillion yuan; Both RMB bonds and stocks are included in mainstream global asset trading indices. Currently, the main offshore market has RMB deposits of 1.6 trillion yuan, and the stock size of offshore RMB bonds and panda bonds issued by overseas institutions is about 2 trillion yuan. ——As a "reserve" currency, its proportion is trending upwards. Currently, over 80 foreign central banks or monetary authorities have included the Chinese yuan in their foreign exchange reserves. According to IMF data, the proportion of the Chinese yuan in global foreign exchange reserve currencies continues to rise, reaching 2.88% in the first quarter of 2025, firmly ranking as the fifth largest reserve currency in the world. Compared to the first release of RMB reserve data by the IMF in 2016 (accounting for 1.08%), the growth has exceeded 270%. The new window of opportunity for the internationalization of the RMB has arrived. With the further clarification of the multipolarization trend of the international monetary system, the industry believes that steadily and prudently promoting the internationalization of the RMB has ushered in a new window of opportunity. From an external perspective, Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told Shanghai Securities News reporters that the current international monetary landscape is evolving from a "unipolar" US dollar to a "multipolar" system. The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves and international payments is declining, while non US currencies such as the euro and renminbi are steadily increasing their share in international trade settlement, investment and financing, and foreign exchange transactions. The willingness of central banks in emerging markets to diversify their assets has increased. Although still in the early stages, the demand for asset diversification in emerging market countries is expected to open the door for the accelerated internationalization of the renminbi in the coming years. ”Goldman Sachs China Chief Economist Shanhui recently stated. From an internal perspective, many favorable factors are also accumulating. Liang Si stated that the steady development of the Chinese economy and the continuous opening of the financial market have provided a solid economic foundation and broad market space for the internationalization of the renminbi. In addition, the in-depth promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative has also created rich application scenarios for the cross-border use of RMB in countries and regions under joint construction. In recent years, a series of measures have laid a solid foundation for the circulation and use of the RMB in the global market, from the promotion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade, to the construction of offshore RMB markets, to bilateral currency swap agreements, and the improvement of the RMB Cross border Payment System (CIPS). The "circle of friends" of the Chinese yuan is steadily expanding and deepening. From a scope perspective, as of September 30th this year, the People's Bank of China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with central banks or monetary authorities of 32 countries and regions, covering major economies in Asia, Europe, Africa, the Americas, and Oceania, as well as numerous emerging market countries. In terms of scale, the total size of the local currency swap agreement is about 4.5 trillion yuan, providing stable RMB liquidity for the world. Expected to embark on a unique path of internationalization, the internationalization of the RMB is a process driven by the market and gradually developed. ”According to Liao Bo, Chief Macro Analyst of Zheshang Securities, adhering to market driven means exploring and promoting higher levels of trade and investment facilitation, continuously eliminating barriers to the use of the renminbi both domestically and internationally, and creating a fair competitive environment for the renminbi to compete with other major convertible currencies. Looking at cross-border RMB, Liao Bo stated that many companies currently choose cross-border RMB business as a means of avoiding exchange rate risks. Many foreign-related enterprises hope to maintain the stability and continuity of cross-border RMB policies and further improve the infrastructure for RMB internationalization. To this end, he suggests continuing to promote the opening up of domestic financial markets and the interconnection of infrastructure, further facilitating foreign investors to use RMB to invest in domestic bonds and stocks. The offshore RMB market is expected to become the "main battlefield" for RMB internationalization. Shanhui believes that the Chinese yuan is expected to embark on a unique path of internationalization, which is manifested in the offshore market becoming the main stage for promoting the internationalization of the Chinese yuan, and the internationalization of the Chinese yuan may play a greater role in the field of foreign direct investment. When it comes to the construction of the offshore RMB market, Miao Yanliang, Chief Strategist and Executive Head of the Research Department of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), issued a report suggesting that efforts should be made to increase the supply of offshore RMB safe assets, supplemented by the expansion of the onshore currency market and derivative instruments, to enhance the accessibility and convenience of RMB "risk-free assets" and strengthen the reserve function of RMB. At the same time, further develop the offshore RMB financial market in Hong Kong, for example, introduce RMB treasury bond bond futures, interest rate swaps, interest rate options and other derivatives in the offshore market, develop diversified offshore RMB financial products, and build a sound offshore RMB ecosystem. The digital RMB will open up a new digital path for the internationalization of the RMB. The promotion of RMB internationalization by digital RMB is worth looking forward to. "Professor Song Ke from the School of Finance and Economics at Renmin University of China recently stated that compared with traditional finance, digital finance has the advantages of optimizing resource allocation and reducing transaction costs, which is conducive to promoting cross-border trade settlement in RMB and promoting RMB internationalization. The reporter learned from the Digital Currency Research Institute of the People's Bank of China that the current digital RMB has formed a multilateral cooperation model based on the mBridge, a cross-border digital payment platform for digital RMB, and a bilateral system based on blockchain service platforms. Among them, in terms of bilateral infrastructure, the digital RMB cross-border digital payment platform has now achieved connectivity with Hong Kong's "Fast Speed" fast payment system, and is promoting connectivity with relevant systems in Laos and Singapore. With the continuous development of the Chinese economy, further opening up of financial markets, and deepening of international cooperation, the RMB is expected to play a more important role in the global monetary system, injecting new impetus into the diversified development of the global financial landscape. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Shanghai Securities News

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