The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in Beijing from October 20th to 23rd. The meeting approved the Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The plenary session of 'High quality Development Takes Command of the Whole' has outlined a blueprint for China's economic and social development in the next five years. ”Zhang Jun, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities, stated. The plenary session proposed the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five Year Plan period: achieving significant results in high-quality development, greatly improving the level of scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement, making new breakthroughs in further deepening reforms, significantly improving the level of social civilization, continuously improving the quality of people's lives, making new significant progress in building a beautiful China, and consolidating the national security barrier. On this basis, we will strive for another five years to achieve a significant leap in China's economic strength, technological strength, national defense strength, comprehensive national strength, and international influence by 2035. The per capita GDP will reach the level of a moderately developed country, people's lives will be happier and better, and socialist modernization will be basically achieved. The communique did not propose quantitative indicators for economic growth in the next five years, emphasizing the promotion of effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy. ”Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, stated that during the "15th Five Year Plan" period, the economic growth target will continue to be downplayed, with a focus on promoting high-quality economic development and "not judging heroes by GDP". But Wang Qing also emphasized that "not mentioning quantitative targets does not mean not having economic growth." Taking into account the changing trends of China's population, capital, and total factor productivity in the coming period, Wang Qing predicts that the average annual growth rate of China's GDP during the "15th Five Year Plan" period will remain around 4.5% to 5.0%. On the one hand, this will ensure that China's economy continues to maintain a medium to high growth level, and on the other hand, it will also help the macro economy achieve a comprehensive balance between stable growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention, providing ample policy space for effectively promoting high-quality development. The plenary session on advanced manufacturing leading the industry proposed to build a modern industrial system and consolidate and strengthen the foundation of the real economy. Adhere to the focus of economic development on the real economy, adhere to the direction of intelligence, greenness, and integration, accelerate the construction of a manufacturing power, quality power, aerospace power, transportation power, and network power, maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing industry, and build a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing industry as the backbone. To optimize and enhance traditional industries, cultivate and strengthen emerging and future industries, promote high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, and build a modern infrastructure system. Zhang Jun believes that this statement highlights the leading position of advanced manufacturing industry. The next policy will focus on advanced manufacturing to drive the modernization of the industrial system. By maintaining a stable proportion of manufacturing, integrating intelligent, green, and integrated transformation, and tackling weak equipment and industrial software, we will achieve a leap from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing powerhouse". The key to accelerating the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse lies in advanced manufacturing industries with new quality productivity characteristics. ”Li Chao, Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities, stated that advanced manufacturing is based on traditional manufacturing and has become a new type of manufacturing industry with high-tech content and high added value by absorbing and integrating high-tech achievements such as artificial intelligence, machinery, materials, and modern management technology. The plenary session also proposed to seize the historical opportunity of the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. This means that the technology field represented by artificial intelligence will receive key support during the '15th Five Year Plan' period. Zhang Jun said that deeply integrating technological innovation and industrial innovation is the only way for China to achieve technological breakthroughs, cultivate new quality productivity, and build a solid foundation for the manufacturing industry during the '15th Five Year Plan' period. The plenary session proposed to build a strong domestic market and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern as the domestic circular construction enters a new stage. Adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, closely integrate benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, investing in goods and investing in people, lead new supply with new demand, create new demand with new supply, promote the benign interaction between consumption and investment, supply and demand, and enhance the vitality and reliability of the domestic circulation. We must vigorously boost consumption, expand effective investment, and resolutely eliminate bottlenecks that hinder the construction of a unified national market. The construction of the domestic circular economy has entered a new stage. ”Zhang Jun stated that the construction of the domestic circulation has moved from "opening up the circulation" to a new stage of "strengthening the circulation", with a greater emphasis on enhancing the resilience of the internal circulation, forming a self strengthening mechanism, and making the system more stable, with stronger momentum and more sustainable growth. The plenary session on expanding international circulation and two-way investment cooperation space proposed to expand high-level opening up to the outside world and create a new situation of win-win cooperation. Steadily expanding institutional openness, maintaining the multilateral trading system, expanding international circulation, promoting reform and development through openness, and sharing opportunities and common development with countries around the world. We should actively expand independent opening up, promote innovative trade development, expand space for two-way investment cooperation, and jointly build the "the Belt and Road" with high quality. Zhang Jun stated that China continues to promote market diversification, injecting certainty and stability into the stability and smoothness of global industrial and supply chains, as well as world economic growth. Yang Chang, Chief Analyst of the Policy Group at Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, believes that the "15th Five Year Plan" is expected to further increase the opening up of domestic service sectors and attract global investment in China. The deployment of "expanding the space for two-way investment cooperation" in the bulletin is expected to promote the pace of Chinese enterprises going global and provide support for their global layout. In the fourth quarter, a new round of stable growth policies may be introduced. In addition to laying out the "15th Five Year Plan", the plenary session also focused on short-term economic and social development goals. The plenary session analyzed the current situation and tasks, emphasizing the resolute achievement of the annual economic and social development goals. Macro policies are expected to exert efforts to stabilize growth before the end of this year. ”Wang Qing stated that in order to stabilize the macroeconomic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, the necessity of introducing a new round of stable growth policies in the fourth quarter has increased. The core is to increase fiscal strength, monetary easing, and greater efforts to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. We believe that future policies to promote consumption are expected to be further intensified, and the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts before the end of the year. Real estate support policies are expected to be fully intensified on both the supply and demand sides, and there is further room for a reduction in residential mortgage interest rates. The plenary session proposed to promote high-quality development of the real estate industry. The research report from the Zhongzhi Research Institute proposes that this statement anchors the goal of high-quality development for the future of real estate. Under this goal, accelerating the construction of new models for real estate development, building "good houses", and carrying out high-quality urban renewal are expected to appear in the upcoming "15th Five Year Plan" proposals. In addition, the high-quality revitalization and effective utilization of existing commercial housing and idle land are also expected to be important contents of high-quality real estate development. (New Society)