The performance report of China's economy for the first three quarters has been released. According to preliminary calculations by the National Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product for the first three quarters was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. By quarter, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Multiple institutions have analyzed that the economic growth in the first three quarters met expectations, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target. The GDP growth rate meets expectations and lays a good foundation for the whole year. The research team of Minsheng Bank pointed out that China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, and the cumulative year-on-year growth in the first three quarters was 5.2%, which is in line with market expectations and lays a good foundation for achieving the annual target tasks. According to China Galaxy Analysis, the constant price GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the growth rate in the second quarter. The nominal GDP increased by 3.7% year-on-year, which is basically the same as the previous value. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year-on-year, which is 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The GDP in the fourth quarter needs to reach around 4.5% to achieve the annual target of 5%. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, stated that despite the severe fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment, the macro economy has continued its strong growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year, with high-tech manufacturing and other fields representing the development of new quality productivity maintaining a relatively fast growth rate. He pointed out that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the third quarter fell back to 4.8%, mainly due to the acceleration of export growth, the slowdown of domestic investment and consumption, and the weakening of the driving force of domestic demand on economic growth. Industrial production has shown strong performance, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing leading the growth. From the supply side, industrial production has grown rapidly, while equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing have shown good growth momentum. In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 6.2% year-on-year. Looking at the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 5.8% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.8%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.0%. The added value of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the added value of high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.6%, with growth rates 3.5 and 3.4 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size, respectively. China Galaxy Analysis pointed out that the significant rebound in industrial added value is mainly due to the combined effects of the "export rush" and "two new rush" policies, as well as seasonal factors such as the "golden September and silver October". On the one hand, the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" drives up the seasonality of production; On the other hand, the significant increase in export growth has driven up product output. Data shows that in September, China's exported goods amounted to 328.6 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3%. The global economic recovery and continued promotion of market diversification provided support for export growth. Wang Qing believes that the rapid growth of industrial production at 5.8% in the third quarter is mainly due to the export driven and domestic "two new" policy effects. In addition, the high-tech manufacturing industry, which represents the development of new quality productivity, has maintained rapid growth recently and has a direct driving effect on industrial production. The demand structure continues to optimize, and export resilience supports economic growth. From the demand side, the contribution rates of the "three drivers" to economic growth in the third quarter are: final consumption expenditure 56.6%, total capital formation 18.9%, and net exports of goods and services 24.5%. In terms of investment, in the first three quarters, the national fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) was 37153.5 billion yuan, down 0.5% year on year. Excluding the investment in real estate development, the national fixed assets investment increased by 3.0%. In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of goods was 33607.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. Among them, exports amounted to 1.9945 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1%. The resilience of exports and the record high trade surplus in the third quarter remain important supports for economic growth. In terms of consumption, the research team of Minsheng Bank believes that the growth of consumption in the fourth quarter faces multiple challenges, and the growth rate may remain stable with a slight decline. Firstly, residents' consumption capacity needs to be improved; The second is the decline in policy effects. Since the beginning of this year, the use of "trade in" subsidies has accelerated, with only 69 billion yuan of subsidy funds remaining in the fourth quarter, weakening the boosting effect on related categories. Simultaneously, exchanging old for new has an overdraft effect and the multiplier will decrease marginally; Thirdly, in the fourth quarter of last year, the effect of exchanging old for new products showed an increase in the base. Overall, the foundation for the comprehensive recovery of consumption is not yet solid. To promote a more sustainable and widespread release of consumption momentum, it is still necessary to pay attention to supporting and guiding low-income groups, youth groups, and improved consumption scenarios. ”China Galaxy pointed out. Outlook: Policy strengthening and stable growth are expected to achieve the annual target, and measures to stabilize growth are being intensified. Since the end of September, the promotion of 500 billion yuan of new policy based financial instruments has accelerated. In October, an additional 500 billion yuan of local government debt balance limit was arranged to resolve existing debt and expand effective investment. The policy of stabilizing fiscal growth is being strengthened. Focusing on stabilizing the macroeconomic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, Wang Qing suggests that the necessity of introducing a new round of stable growth policies has increased. The core is to strengthen fiscal policies, loosen monetary policy, and make greater efforts to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. Several institutions are optimistic about achieving their annual growth targets. China Galaxy stated that with the support of a package of policies, investment and consumption growth rates are expected to stabilize and increase, and domestic demand is gradually taking over from external demand. The quarter on quarter and year-on-year GDP growth rates are expected to improve, and the year-on-year growth rate will further approach 5%. The economic growth target of around 5% for the whole year can be successfully achieved. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, achieving the annual expected goals has a foundation and support, but it also requires hard work. ”The research team of Minsheng Bank pointed out that considering the significant rebound in economic growth after the implementation of a package of incremental policies in the same period last year, coupled with the high probability of a decline in export growth and the emergence of policy rollback effects, it is expected that economic growth will continue to decline. But with the introduction of incremental policies, it is possible to smooth out the slowdown to a certain extent, and the probability of achieving the annual target of 5.0% is still high. Wang Qing stated that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts before the end of the year. Real estate support policies are expected to be fully intensified on both the supply and demand sides, and there is further room for the reduction of residential mortgage interest rates. He expects that under the driving force of stable growth policies, the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to reach around 4.7%, thereby successfully achieving the annual economic growth target of "around 5.0%". The new quality productivity field represented by high-tech manufacturing will continue to grow rapidly. (New Society)