The current global economy is full of uncertainties and risks. How to prevent and resolve major economic risks is an important subject. Since the 18 National Congress of the Party, General Secretary Xi Jinping has warned the whole party to establish the bottom line thinking, and use the "bucket principle" to warn the whole party to be at making up for the shortcomings, but also to pay attention to reinforcing the bottom plate. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that "in the face of complex and changeable international situation arduous domestic reform and development tasks, we must be safe and think about dangers, enhance awareness of worries, risk awareness, and responsibility awareness" "All kinds of risks, must control, but the focus is to control those risks that may delay or interrupt the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Global risks". We must deeply understand the important requirements proposed by Secretary Xi Jinping for preventing and resolving risks, adhere to strategic thinking and systematic thinking, improve scientific预见ability, identify various risks and challenges, and win the development initiative in the great.

Look at risks with the eyes of development
Risks are directly related to uncertainty. If the world were all certain, there would be no to speak of. In reality, risks are omnipresent and ever-present. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out, "Now, the external environment is complex, risks and challenges are severe and the number of unstable and uncertain factors has明显增多". From a horizontal perspective, global risks are rising and difficult to predict, with the world's century-old great changes accelerating. rules humans have built are failing, the order is being disrupted, and the risk of uncertainty is increasing. From a vertical perspective, the process of human social development is showing a "ing up" trend. The agricultural society was a "slow-changing society," with production methods and lifestyles remaining largely unchanged for 1,000 years. After industrialization, changes to accelerate, entering a "fast-changing society," where significant changes would occur every 100 years. After the three industrial revolutions, human production and lifestyle underwent a complete transformation Entering the information society, the changes brought about by digitalization and artificial intelligence are even faster, with noticeable changes occurring every 10 years. Against the backdrop of social acceleration the frequency of general risks evolving into major risks has increased, and the speed of such evolution has also accelerated.
Viewing risks from a systematic perspective
The economic system is embedded in the social system, and as the risks faced human society increase, so do economic risks.
From the logical relationship between the economic cycle and the risk cycle, the economic cycle is mainly reflected in the cycle between "expiture-income" and "assets-liabilities", and risks are also contained within them. For example, when the household sector purchases products from the corporate sector, the corporate recovers its costs and earns profits, which allows it to hire labor. Workers, upon receiving their wages, have consumer expenditure, and a cycle is formed between income and expenditure. the cycle is not smooth, or even if there is a serious lack of internal demand, a negative feedback loop between supply and demand will be formed, leading to risk accumulation. Theeconomic effect caused by risk accumulation is an imbalance between savings and investment, and an imbalance between supply and demand. The condition for macroeconomic balance is that savings equal investment. If savings investment are out of balance, it means that the market has not cleared, and macro policies, especially fiscal policies, are needed to maintain this macroeconomic balance condition. For example, form assets, and asset returns repay debts. In this cycle, liquidity risks and asset depreciation risks are prone to occur.
From the perspective of risk cycle interlinkage when a certain enterprise has problems, after the risk is externalized, it accumulates and spreads, and becomes a public risk, that is, it is transformed into a macro risk Once public risk rises, many enterprises will feel pressure. The risk cycle varies according to the different reference systems. Under the trend of rapid economic growth, individual risk externalization decreases, public risk shows a converging trend. While under the trend of economic downturn, individual risk externalization increases, default increases, and public risk shows an expanding trend.
 prevent and control major risks, we must first recognize the risk cycle, know where to start, and solve what problems. If, in the process of risk publicization, a correlation is formed, it should be cut off in time, and expectations should be changed as soon as possible, so that not all enterprises are under pressure. The state of the risk cycle be judged in time, and the opportunity of low-cost prevention and mitigation of risks should not be missed, otherwise it will turn into a crisis, and the cost of mitigation will higher.