The Federal Reserve recently announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate, marking the first rate cut since December 2024. On September 22, a reporter from China Securities Journal visited multiple bank branches in Beijing and found that some US dollar deposit interest rates remain at 3% or above and have not been lowered yet. However, customer managers from multiple banks said that a rate cut "may come soon". At the same time, there is a differentiation in the interest rate structure of US dollar deposits among different banks: some have "longer terms, higher interest rates", while others have "shorter terms, higher interest rates". Industry insiders believe that the structure of US dollar deposit interest rates to some extent reflects banks' expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another 50 basis points within the year heating up, the structure of US dollar deposit interest rates for banks may undergo adjustments. A customer manager from Jiangsu Bank's Beijing Xuanwumen branch said, "Currently, the interest rate for US dollar deposits starting at $5000 is 2.5% for 3-month deposits, 2.7% for 6-month deposits, and 3% for 1-year deposits. Although the interest rate has not been adjusted recently, considering that the Federal Reserve just cut interest rates last week, the interest rate for the next product may be lowered, and the interest rate for this product will remain at the same level as February this year. The customer manager of Beijing Bank Xuanwumen Branch also stated, "Currently, the one-year US dollar deposit interest rate for deposits starting from $5000 in our bank is still 3% and has not decreased temporarily, but adjustments may occur at any time." The US dollar deposit interest rate provided by Guangfa Bank Beijing Xuanwumen Branch is set in segments based on the deposit amount: for deposits below $30000, the 6-month period is 3.1%, the 1-year period is 3%, and the 2-year period is 2.8%; Between $30000 and $100000, the 6-month period is 3.3%, the 1-year period is 3.1%, and the 2-year period is 2.9%; Over 100000 US dollars, the 6-month period is 3.4%, the 1-year period is 3.2%, and the 2-year period is 2.95%. The account manager of the bank stated, "There may be interest rate cuts in the future, but we have not received any notification yet." The reporter found that there are significant differences in the interest rate structure or adjustment of US dollar deposits among various banks. Taking Jiangsu Bank as an example, the interest rate level of its US dollar deposits is positively correlated with the term, and the longer the deposit term, the higher the interest rate. Guangfa Bank, on the other hand, exhibits the opposite characteristic: products with shorter maturities have higher interest rates, while products with longer maturities have lower interest rates. The structure of US dollar deposit interest rates to some extent reflects banks' expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. Looking back at the second half of last year, there were multiple banks where short-term US dollar deposit rates were higher than long-term rates, in order to better respond to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. For example, in November last year, the interest rate structure of US dollar deposits at the Beijing Xuanwumen branch of Jiangsu Bank showed the characteristic of "the shorter the term, the higher the interest rate". However, at the beginning of this year, the bank has adjusted it to "the longer the term, the higher the interest rate". Industry insiders believe that this shift is mainly due to the market's judgment at the beginning of the year that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slowed down. With the recent increase in market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, multiple banks may once again adjust the structure of US dollar deposit interest rates. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points within the year. The market has long had expectations for the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut. Currently, with the slowdown in employment growth and sustained high inflation in the United States, this interest rate cut reflects the Federal Reserve's concern over employment rather than inflation risks. The "dot plot" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate forecast shows that the median forecast for the cumulative rate cuts of the remaining two policy meetings this year by Federal Reserve officials is 50 basis points. CITIC Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its interest rate meetings in October and December, respectively. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that if the US unemployment rate continues to rise in the future, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 75 basis points this year. The main divergence in the current market lies in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy for 2026. Market participants believe that the interest rate trend in 2026 will only become clear after the final candidate for the new Federal Reserve chairman is confirmed. (New Society)