On September 22nd, the new LPR (Loan Market Quotation Rate) was released. The People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") authorizes the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the 1-year LPR is 3.0%, and the 5-year and above LPR is 3.5%. The LPR of both maturity varieties remains consistent with the previous values, meeting market expectations. Recently, the policy interest rate, namely the 7-day reverse repo operation rate, has remained stable, which means that the pricing basis of LPR has not changed, indicating to a large extent that LPR will remain unchanged in September. The 7-day reverse repo rate has remained unchanged since May 8th, when it was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%. Wang Qing, the chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told reporters that due to the impact of anti involution on market expectations and other factors, the recent interest rates in the main medium and long term markets, including the yield to maturity of one-year interbank certificates of deposit (AAA) and the yield of 10-year treasury bond bonds, have risen. Against the background that the net interest margin of commercial banks is at the lowest point in history, the quotation banks also lack the motivation to actively reduce the LPR quotation points. Therefore, the LPR of the two maturity varieties in September did not change, which is in line with the general market expectation. As of now, LPR has remained unchanged for four consecutive months. Looking ahead to the later stage, analysts predict that there may still be room for a downward trend in policy interest rates and LPR within the year. Wang Qing believes that the impact of the US high tariff policy on global trade and China's exports may be further reflected in the fourth quarter, coupled with the high base effect brought by a package of incremental policies in the same period last year. The necessity of strengthening and stabilizing growth and employment in the fourth quarter has increased. In the process of vigorously boosting domestic demand and taking effective measures to consolidate the stabilizing trend of the real estate market before the end of the year, there is room for policy interest rates and LPR to be lowered. The resumption of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September means that external factors further weaken the constraints on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy domestically. ”Wang Qing predicts that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts in the fourth quarter, which will drive down the LPR of two maturity products. This will guide the loan interest rates of enterprises and residents to further decline, stimulate endogenous financing demand, and be an important driving force for promoting consumption, expanding investment, and effectively hedging against the slowdown of external demand in the fourth quarter. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that, in terms of necessity, credit has remained weak since the third quarter of this year, real estate sales have bottomed out again, and the necessity of interest rate cuts to reduce financing costs is still high; From a feasibility perspective, commercial banks face significant pressure in interest rate differentials, which may lead to a reduction in LPR or a decrease in deposit interest rates in the future. (New Society)