According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, in August 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year and remained unchanged compared to the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. On a month on month basis, it changed from a decrease of 0.2% to a flat trend, ending an eight month continuous downward trend. Data shows that the CPI in August decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with urban areas falling by 0.3% and rural areas falling by 0.6%; Food prices decreased by 4.3%, while non food prices increased by 0.5%; Consumer goods prices decreased by 1.0%, while service prices increased by 0.6%. On average from January to August, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In August, the overall operation of the consumer market remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining unchanged on a month on month basis but decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion in growth. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that the year-on-year decline in CPI was mainly due to the increase in the comparison base of the same period last year and the lower than seasonal increase in food prices this month. From the perspective of the upward trend, the impact of last year's price changes on this month's CPI year-on-year is about -0.9 percentage points, and the downward trend has expanded by 0.4 percentage points compared to last month; From the perspective of the new price increase, the CPI remained unchanged month on month, about 0.3 percentage points lower than the seasonal level. Both factors jointly led to a year-on-year decrease in CPI. Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that the recent consumer promotion policies have played a significant role in supporting the prices of goods such as automobiles and home appliances. It is expected that the CPI in September will return to positive growth month on month, and the year-on-year growth will turn from negative to positive, rising to around 0.1%. There is a slight upward trend in CPI year-on-year in the fourth quarter. The current domestic price level is stable but relatively weak, with insufficient consumer demand being the main reason. This provides ample policy space for the continued strengthening of monetary and fiscal policies to promote consumption and effectively hedge against external fluctuations. In August, PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first narrowing since March this year. From a month on month perspective, PPI has turned from a 0.2% decline last month to a flat trend, ending an eight month continuous downward trend. The prices of production materials increased by 0.1% month on month, while the prices of living materials decreased by 0.1%. The prices of some energy and raw material industries have shifted from a decrease to an increase on a month on month basis. The price of coal processing has changed from a 4.7% decrease last month to a 9.7% increase. The price of coal mining and washing industry has changed from a decrease of 1.5% to an increase of 2.8%. The price of black metal smelting and rolling processing industry changed from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 1.9%. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the decline in PPI in August narrowed. In addition to the impact of the lower base compared to the same period last year, China has intensified the implementation of more proactive macro policies, and prices in some industries have shown positive changes. Firstly, the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order has led to a narrowing of the year-on-year price decline in related industries; Secondly, the steady growth of new driving forces has led to a year-on-year increase in prices in related industries; Thirdly, the increase in upgrading consumer demand has driven up prices in some industries year-on-year. Feng Lin pointed out that we predict that the year-on-year decline in PPI in September will further narrow to around -2.3%. Looking ahead, under the influence of factors such as the downward trend of the base in the same period last year, restrictions on the release of production capacity in some industries due to anti involution policies, and the expected strengthening of stable growth policies, the year-on-year decline in PPI in the fourth quarter is expected to narrow to within -2.0%, but the difficulty of turning positive is relatively high. Looking ahead, PPI may enter a rebound cycle starting from August compared to the same period last year. ”Huachuang Securities analysis, firstly, the impact of low base. Last August and September, PPI fell by 0.7% and 0.6% month on month respectively, providing very favorable low base conditions for the year-on-year rebound of PPI in the following two months of this year. Secondly, 'anti internal competition' may drive the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order, thereby driving price improvements in related industries. The policy deployment of this round of anti involution is high-level and involves a wide range of industries. The continuous optimization of market competition order will drive price improvement in related industries, which has been reflected in the prices in July. It is expected that the anti involution policy will continue to gradually promote reasonable price recovery in the future. Thirdly, the improvement of the economic cycle also indicates a bottoming out and rebound of PPI year-on-year. (New Society)