Think Tank

Li Nan: What are the new trends in global foreign direct investment?

2025-08-28   

In 2024, global foreign direct investment (FDI) will decrease by 11% to approximately $1.5 trillion. This is the second consecutive year that global FDI has declined. However, there are still growth highlights in global FDI in some "sub sectors" such as the digital economy. How do you view the current global investment trends? What are the advantages of developing countries in attracting foreign investment compared to developed countries? Will the global FDI situation improve this year? Recently, Li Nan, Director of the Investment and Enterprise Division of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), gave an interview to interpret this. The summary of the interview transcript is as follows: Reporter: According to recent disclosure by UNCTAD, global FDI will shrink for the second consecutive year in 2024. How do you view this trend? Li Nan: In 2024, the global decline in FDI is mainly due to a 58% year-on-year decrease in FDI inflows into Europe. Among the 27 member states of the European Union, FDI has declined in 15 economies, including Germany, Spain, Italy, and France. This reflects the serious impact of global geopolitical tensions and financial market instability on investor confidence. In addition, in 2024, the total amount of international project financing (IPF), which is crucial for infrastructure investment, decreased by 11% year-on-year in Europe, reflecting a broader cautious attitude among investors and a generally tightening financial environment. In developing countries, the inflow of FDI remains relatively stable. By 2024, developing economies will account for 57% of global FDI inflows. The total FDI of developing countries remained stable at 867 billion US dollars, which is basically the same as the previous year. This demonstrates the resilience of developing countries in the context of ongoing global uncertainty, tight financial environment, and weak trade. FDI inflows are highly concentrated in developing countries, with ten major emerging markets including China, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, and India accounting for approximately 75% of total FDI inflows in developing countries. This reflects the difficulties faced by smaller and more fragile economies in attracting international investment. On August 13, 2025 local time, the China International Trade Promotion (Indonesia) Green and Innovation Cooperation Exhibition and the "China Indonesia Economic and Trade Investment Forum" were held in Jakarta, with more than 40 Chinese companies registering to participate. Reporter Li Zhiquan from China News Service: Under the current tense and uncertain trade situation, what are UNCTAD's predictions for global FDI this year? Li Nan: The international investment outlook tends to be negative in 2025. Although it seems expected to achieve moderate growth at the beginning of the year, trade tensions have led to a downward adjustment of almost all FDI outlook indicators, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth, capital formation, exports of goods and services, foreign exchange and financial market volatility, and investor confidence. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2025 shows that transactions and project activities are at historic lows. Reporter: Developing countries and developed countries are at different stages of development. What are the differences between attracting FDI? Li Nan: In recent years, the formulation of global investment policies has been increasingly influenced by geopolitical tensions and industrial policy objectives. Developing countries still emphasize opening up to FDI and have introduced a large number of favorable measures; Developed countries are increasingly inclined to adopt restrictive measures, especially in terms of national security and FDI review. More than 40% of the adverse measures introduced in 2024 involve new or expanded review mechanisms. These are mainly implemented by developed countries, focusing on high-tech industries and key raw materials that are crucial for energy transformation and supply chain resilience. At the same time, positive incentives in industrial policies have become the mainstream policy tool for attracting global investment, accounting for 45% of favorable measures. The geographical distribution of restrictive measures is also changing. In 2024, Canada and the United States became the countries that introduced the most restrictive measures, surpassing Europe. However, the restrictive measures in developing countries are still limited, mainly concentrated in the field of resource exploitation. On May 13, 2025 local time, customers in a supermarket in Manhattan, New York, USA, self checkout. In recent years, the rapid development of the digital economy has become a major highlight of global FDI. How do you view the rise of the digital economy? Li Nan: The digital economy is the fastest growing industry in global investment. In 2024, the total amount of green space investment projects in the digital economy sector surged to 360 billion US dollars. Between 2020 and 2024, developing countries attracted $531 billion in greenfield investments in the digital economy, but these investments are highly concentrated, with nearly 80% of projects concentrated in 10 countries: six countries in Asia - India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and China, accounting for over 60% of the total; The Latin American region is mainly dominated by Brazil and Mexico; West Asia is led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Digital economy FDI can help promote the popularization of advanced technologies, improve productivity, and promote inclusive development through services such as health technology, educational technology, financial technology, and agricultural technology, playing an important role in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, it should be noted that its development varies in different countries and regions, as infrastructure, digital capabilities, market conditions, and regulatory frameworks all affect the attractiveness of investment in this field. On May 15, 2025, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, at the Education Digitalization Achievement Exhibition held at the 2025 World Digital Education Conference, the monthly immersive ubiquitous teaching platform that integrates virtual and real elements attracted audiences. Photo by Zhang Xiangyi, reporter from China News Service: China and the United States are important recipients of FDI worldwide. How do you view the guiding role of the two countries in leading global trade and investment? Li Nan: As an important global trading and investment powerhouse, China and the United States are regarded as the "barometer" of global trade and investment trends. The cooperation between the two countries is not only crucial for the stability and growth of their respective economies, but also of great significance to the overall health of the global economy. Through coordinated cooperation, China and the United States can help restore global investor confidence and create a more favorable development environment for low-income countries and fragile economies. In recent years, the trend of attracting FDI in China has undergone positive changes, such as the transformation of China's FDI structure towards high-tech industries and advanced manufacturing, demonstrating a clear trend in attracting high-quality investment. (Xinhua News Agency) Interviewee profile: Li Nan, Director of the Investment and Enterprise Division of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. I have led a team to promote infrastructure investment in multiple developing countries, including energy transition and joint investment with multilateral development banks and debt financing institutions, and have solid expertise in promoting sustainable investment in developing countries.

Edit:Luo yu Responsible editor:Zhou shu

Source:CNS.cn

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