Since the beginning of this year, more proactive fiscal policies have continued to be implemented, and the issuance and use of government bonds have accelerated. Data shows that as of August 26, six issues of ultra long term special treasury bond have been issued this year, with a cumulative size of 996 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 76.6%; Local governments have issued new special bonds worth 3149.76 billion yuan, exceeding the issuance scale of the same period last year. Experts believe that with the acceleration of bond issuance and utilization by various levels of financial departments, the continuous landing of relevant funds will provide strong support for stable growth. Incremental policies are expected to be introduced in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, and the use of local government special bonds will continue to expand. Speed up issuance and use In 2025, China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond, an increase of 300 billion yuan over 2024, focusing on supporting "dual" and "new" areas. Wind data shows that as of August 26, six issues of ultra long term special treasury bond have been issued this year, with a cumulative size of 996 billion yuan and a progress of 76.6%. The issuance arrangement of the Ministry of Finance shows that both September and October have arrangements for the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond. The issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond has played a supporting role in economic development. For equipment update, the National Development and Reform Commission data shows that the 188 billion yuan investment subsidy fund for equipment update supported by ultra long term special treasury bond in 2025 has been released, driving the total investment to more than 1 trillion yuan. As for the exchange of old for new consumer goods, Jiang Yi, director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and press spokesman, said earlier that the third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond funds supporting the exchange of old for new consumer goods had been released this year, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of funds would be released in October as planned, when the annual release plan of 300 billion yuan would be completed. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of the end of June, the total sales revenue of the five major categories of consumer goods, including digital products such as automobiles, home appliances, mobile phones, home decoration, and electric bicycles, driven by the trade in of old for new in 2025 exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, surpassing the sales revenue of consumer goods trade in of old for new in 2024. The issuance of local government special bonds has accelerated. According to Wind data, as of August 26th, the scale of newly issued special bonds by local governments this year has reached 3149.76 billion yuan, about 40% more than the same period last year. Financial departments at all levels are promoting the acceleration and efficiency improvement of bond fund issuance and utilization, providing support for the growth of government fund budget expenditures. According to the data released by the Ministry of Finance, in the first seven months of this year, 2.89 trillion yuan was spent on local government special bonds, ultra long term special treasury bond bonds, and central financial institutions' special treasury bond bonds, which were included in the budget of government funds, driving an increase of 31.7% in government fund budget spending. "From the perspective of issuing progress, both ultra long term special treasury bond and local government special bonds have kept pace with the time and even moderately ahead of the issuing pace. ”Professor Bai Yanfeng from the School of Finance and Taxation at Central University of Finance and Economics stated in an interview with China Securities Journal that the next step is to continue to maintain the corresponding issuance pace and usage progress, laying a solid foundation for the successful conclusion of the entire year and even the 14th Five Year Plan. Since June, the changes in the characteristics of the use of local government special bonds are also worth paying attention to, as the investment of funds continues to expand. ”Song Xuetao, Chief Economist of Guojin Securities, said. From the perspective of investment direction, according to data from Enterprise Early Warning, as of August 26th, 28.2% of the local government special bond funds issued this year have been used for municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18.8% for transportation infrastructure, and 12.9% for land reserves. With policy support, the use of local government special bond funds in the direction of land reserves has resumed. ”Liu Yakun, chief fixed income analyst of China Galaxy Securities, said that this round of local government special bond funds invested in land reserves are more inclined to idle stock land, which is expected to drive about 1 trillion yuan of new investment in fixed assets investment such as real estate and infrastructure in the next few years. Bai Yanfeng believes that the use of local government special bond funds for land reserves and the acquisition of existing commodity housing will help promote the gradual stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. The "Opinions on Optimizing and Improving the Management Mechanism of Local Government Special Bonds" previously issued by the General Office of the State Council proposed to expand the scope of special bond investment and use as project capital. China Securities Journal reporters have found that many regions are using local government special bond funds for government investment guidance funds. For example, the Beijing Municipal Finance Bureau has announced plans to issue 10 billion yuan special bonds to raise funds for the Beijing Municipal Government Investment Guidance Fund. The draft of the "Jiangsu Province 2025 Local Government Debt Limit and Provincial Budget Adjustment Plan" released by the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Finance shows that 9 billion yuan of newly added special bonds will be invested in the provincial strategic emerging industry parent fund. Wu Zhiwu, Senior Director of the R&D Department of Zhongzheng Pengyuan, believes that local government special bond funds can largely meet the needs of government investment guidance fund funding supply, allowing government investment guidance funds to better focus on achieving policy goals. Experts predict that the super long term special treasury bond and local government special bonds will both move forward to boost the investment scale and provide power for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth. In the fourth quarter, relevant departments are expected to timely introduce incremental policies based on changes in the situation. For ultra long term special treasury bond, the National Development and Reform Commission has previously said that in the next step, it will continue to strengthen overall coordination with all relevant parties, solidly promote project construction, promote the formation of more physical workload as soon as possible, strictly control the closed-loop management of projects and funds, ensure that the central funds are used effectively, and better give play to the effectiveness of the "two new" policy. Liu Yakun stated that in the next stage, local government special bond funds supporting infrastructure and real estate projects may be heavily invested. In the long run, new infrastructure areas such as data centers and charging piles are expected to become new drivers of growth. Compared with traditional infrastructure, the investment scale that can be leveraged by new infrastructure will be more considerable. Against the backdrop of overall fiscal efforts this year, Liu Yu, Chief Economist of Huaxi Securities, believes that the net supply of local government bonds is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, local governments will issue approximately 130 billion yuan in general bonds and 760 billion yuan in special bonds, totaling approximately 890 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 790 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter. Yuan Haixia, president of China Integrity International Research Institute, suggested that policy reserves should be well prepared in the next stage, and incremental policies should be introduced in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, such as the issuance of additional special treasury bond and new policy based financial instruments. (New Society)