According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China's import and export of goods in the first half of this year amounted to 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In the first half of the year, there was still a certain degree of "export competition" among Chinese export enterprises. Especially after Trump's return to power, the strong expectation and policy uncertainty of the United States imposing tariffs on Chinese products have led Chinese foreign trade enterprises to choose to export earlier in order to avoid higher tariffs and export costs in the later stage. In the first quarter of this year, China's exports to the United States increased by 5.6% year-on-year. But in April, after the increase in US tariff rates, China's exports to the US sharply declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% in the second quarter. Throughout the first half of the year, China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa showed a strong growth trend. For example, in the first half of the year, exports to ASEAN increased by 14.3% year-on-year, and exports to Africa increased by 23% year-on-year, far exceeding the overall growth rate of China's exports. In addition, cross-border e-commerce has become a "dark horse" for exports in the first half of this year. At present, the number of cross-border e-commerce entities in China has exceeded 120000, and traditional foreign trade enterprises are accelerating their transformation towards cross-border e-commerce. Cross border e-commerce has become a new type of "fusion" between production enterprises and foreign trade enterprises. From the top global cross-border e-commerce rankings, besides Amazon, Chinese platforms such as TikTok and Alibaba have become the world's leading cross-border e-commerce trading platforms. Strong supply chain control capabilities, new marketing methods, and flexible business models have brought thousands of Chinese small and micro enterprises and manufacturers to the "big stage" of the international market. In 2024, the import and export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce reached 2.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Among them, exports amounted to about 2.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, far higher than the export growth rate of traditional goods trade. I believe that in the next five years, China's cross-border e-commerce will continue to maintain a rapid growth trend, and more cross-border e-commerce brands will emerge in the global market. This year may be a "small year" for China's foreign trade in a difficult external environment, but next year is expected to usher in a "big year" for foreign trade. China's foreign trade showed a stabilizing and improving trend in the first half of the year, and will continue to stabilize and rebound in the second half. Since September last year, China has introduced a package of incremental policies, and the policy effects have quickly emerged. At the same time, foreign trade commodities, markets, and enterprises themselves are also committed to transformation and upgrading, such as the digital economy and cross-border e-commerce, which will continue to make efforts. In the first three months of this year, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of China's foreign trade imports and exports first turned from negative to positive, and by June, the growth rate had reached 5.2%. With the global monetary policy shifting from tightening to gradually easing, Europe and the United States have opened a new cycle of interest rate cuts, which will drive a rebound in consumption and investment, especially for American companies that started restocking at the end of last year, driving an increase in their import demand. China's exports of intermediate goods and daily consumer goods have come at a good time. Looking at 2025, I believe that China's foreign trade will show a trend of initially low and then high, with a steady improvement in quality. I personally believe that this year may be a "little year" for China's foreign trade in a difficult external environment, and next year is expected to usher in a "big year" for foreign trade. The total value of trade between China and ASEAN, Africa and other regions has grown very strongly, sending three strong signals in the first half of the year. Although the scale of trade between China and the United States has declined, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN, Africa and other regions has grown very strongly. I think this will become a normalized phenomenon in the future and release three strong signals. Firstly, it indicates that the pattern of China's foreign trade is rapidly changing, and a diversified market pattern is beginning to take shape. Currently, geopolitical risks and the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs seriously affect the development of Sino US trade relations. Chinese export companies have to take countermeasures to diversify export risks and reduce dependence on the US single market. I don't think this trend will change due to future changes in US tariff policies. That is to say, even if the United States reduces tariffs, Chinese export companies will not change the export pattern of "one shot, blooming everywhere". Secondly, the trend of diversification in China's export market is irreversible. The diversified pattern of foreign trade will accelerate the proportion of economic and trade cooperation between China and emerging markets such as ASEAN, Middle Eastern countries, and Africa. Relevant statistics show that the total import and export volume of countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" has accounted for more than 50% of China's total foreign trade. That is to say, the first tier of China's traditional trading powers is gradually changing. In the past, they mainly relied on the European, American, Japanese, and Korean markets, but in the future, ASEAN and African countries will occupy a more important position. Especially for African countries, the potential and prospects for economic and trade cooperation are very broad. In the first five months of this year, the scale of China Africa trade reached a historic high, which is a rare phenomenon compared to other regions. Once again, new changes are beginning to emerge in the global value chain. The transformation from the traditional "European and American circle" to the "Asian African European and American consumption circle" has begun. The speed and sustainability of this process of reconstruction will depend on two aspects: one is the speed of China's technology diffusion, especially whether ASEAN and Africa can undertake more of China's high value-added links; Another aspect is the depth of China's institutional opening-up, especially after accelerating negotiations to join the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership) and DEPA (Digital Economy Partnership Agreement) processes, which will greatly stimulate and inspire Chinese export enterprises to plan their layout in the global industrial chain. Private enterprises are increasingly playing an important role in China's foreign trade, especially the export is far ahead of the future. China's foreign trade circle of friends will further expand within the scope of countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road". There are multiple factors behind the influence, including the deepening and acceleration of policy guidance and regional cooperation, and the accelerated development of digital trade and cross-border e-commerce. Specifically, in the first half of this year, China's import and export to countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road" totaled 11.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%, accounting for 51.8% of the total import and export value, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, imports and exports to ASEAN amounted to 3.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6%. In recent years, China has significantly reduced tariffs, resulting in a sustained increase in the import and export scale of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) members, which is higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade. This has also promoted the optimization of supply chains for goods such as electronic products. In recent years, countries such as Vietnam and Mexico have significantly increased their dependence on China's supply chain, with digital trade and cross-border e-commerce playing a huge role. The rapid development of digital trade has brought about earth shattering changes to the entire export chain. According to statistics, the average foreign trade cycle in China is 22 days faster than that in Europe and America, from receiving orders to production, transportation, loading, shipping, inspection, unloading, and warehousing. Whoever is fast and efficient will be able to seize the opportunity. It is worth noting that private enterprises are increasingly demonstrating their skills in China's foreign trade field, especially in terms of exports. In the first half of the year, there were 628000 foreign trade enterprises in China with import and export performance, surpassing 600000 for the first time in history, an increase of 43000 compared to the same period last year. Among them, there were 547000 private enterprises, with an import and export growth of 7.3%, accounting for nearly 60% of the total import and export value. Currently, more and more private enterprises are shifting from contract manufacturing to branding, and more and more private enterprises are paying attention to first launch economy, intermediate goods trade, and so on. In the mid to high end manufacturing industry, such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic cells, semiconductor industries, etc., more and more excellent private enterprises have emerged, and China's export competitiveness in these fields has greatly improved. China's high-end manufacturing industry will shift from simply selling goods to providing comprehensive solutions. In the first half of the year, China's high-end equipment exports grew by over 20%. The core driving force behind the rapid growth of China's equipment manufacturing exports is its continuous commitment to technological upgrading of the industry, and of course, it cannot be separated from the impact of global industrial chain restructuring. In the field of equipment manufacturing, the global production chain has shown a trend of moving eastward, including capital, technology, talent, and equipment. The increasing demand for automation equipment and construction machinery in emerging markets, including Southeast Asia and the Middle East, will further promote the recovery of China's manufacturing industry. For example, in the first half of the year, China's industrial robot exports increased by 61.5%, and the export growth rates of lithium batteries and wind turbines exceeded 20%. The position of China's equipment manufacturing industry in the global supply chain has been greatly enhanced. In the future, I believe that China's high-end manufacturing industry will shift from simply selling goods to providing comprehensive solutions. This comprehensive plan and efficiency improvement are also driving changes in the business model of China's equipment manufacturing industry exports, and further enhancing the competitiveness of China's equipment manufacturing industry in the international market. (Xinhua News Agency) Author: Wei Jianguo (Vice Chairman of China International Economic Exchange Center and former Deputy Minister of Commerce)