Economy

Proactive and proactive fiscal policies to safeguard people's livelihoods, promote investment, and prevent risks

2025-08-07   

Looking ahead at the current moment, economic growth still faces challenges and pressures, and the foundation for improvement needs to be further consolidated. How fiscal policy can be "more proactive" and in which key areas it will focus, has attracted much attention. Experts believe that in the next stage, relevant departments will further strengthen the implementation of existing policies, accelerate the issuance and use of government bonds, vigorously optimize the expenditure structure, and enhance people's livelihood security. At the same time, actively and prudently resolving local government debt risks, and effectively promoting the clearing of local financing platforms in an orderly manner. Strengthening fiscal policies to ensure people's livelihoods is an important tool for macroeconomic regulation. In the situation where the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure is still prominent, fiscal policies will pay more attention to precise efforts, vigorously optimize expenditure structure, and strengthen people's livelihood security. Implement a childcare subsidy system, with a preliminary budget of about 90 billion yuan this year; Gradually promote free preschool education, and for the portion of kindergarten income reduced due to the exemption of childcare education fees, the financial department will comprehensively consider the number of children in the kindergarten who are exempt from childcare education fees, the actual level of childcare education fees per student in the location, and provide subsidies to the kindergarten; The recent series of measures to issue subsidies for elderly care services for disabled individuals highlights the warmth of fiscal policies towards people's livelihoods. Shen Jianguang, Vice President and Chief Economist of JD Group, said that in the first half of the year, the growth rates of social security and employment, education, and health expenditures for people's livelihoods reached 9.2%, 5.9%, and 4.3% respectively, all higher than the 3.4% growth rate of general public budget expenditures. At the same time, in the first half of the year, the issuance of treasury bond and local general bonds focused on people's livelihood and government operation was faster than that of special bonds focused on project construction, which to some extent reflected the preference of financial expenditure for people's livelihood. Focusing on boosting consumption to support the expansion of domestic demand is also a major direction for fiscal efforts in the next stage. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an recently published a signed article in the Study Times, stating that strengthening the coordination and linkage between fiscal and financial policies, introducing and implementing financial subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service industry operating entity loans in key areas, and better meeting consumer demand. Currently, multiple banks are actively organizing the implementation of loan interest subsidy policies. Construction Bank stated that it will effectively carry out the transmission and implementation of interest subsidy policies for personal consumption loans and service industry operating entities' loans, so that consumer market participants can more conveniently obtain policy dividends. Accelerating the issuance of government bonds is used in the "toolbox" of fiscal policy. Special bonds, ultra long term special treasury bond, etc. are important tools to stabilize investment and promote growth. A set of data proves that the effective use of bond funds has been achieved. In the first half of the year, a total of 2.6 trillion yuan of new local government general and special bonds were issued nationwide to support the construction of major projects in key local areas; The extra long term special treasury bond capital budget of 658.3 billion yuan was issued to strongly support the construction of "dual" projects and "two new" work; We issued 500 billion yuan of special treasury bond, completed the core tier one capital replenishment of four large state-owned commercial banks, and improved the ability of banks to serve the real economy. At present, it is necessary to make good use of the established fiscal policy tools, promote the formation of physical workloads as soon as possible, and timely play the important role of local bonds, especially special bonds, in stabilizing investment and expanding domestic demand. ”Yuan Haixia, President of China Chengxin International Research Institute, stated. Early implementation of policy effectiveness and acceleration of government bond issuance and utilization is a major focus. Zhou Guannan, Chief Fixed Income Analyst at Huachuang Securities, predicts that August and September will be the peak of government bond supply. In terms of new special bonds, as of the end of July, 2.78 trillion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, accounting for 63% of the annual quota, which is a relatively fast level compared to the same period in history. It is expected that the progress of new special bond issuance for the whole year will reach 88% by the end of the third quarter. Tang Longsheng, deputy director of the Treasury Payment Center of the Ministry of Finance, said that he would complete the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond bonds on schedule, and effectively guarantee the implementation of the "dual" and "new" projects. In terms of fiscal increment policies, Li Xunlei, Chief Economist of China Thailand International, predicts that relevant departments will make a decisive decision on whether to further increase their efforts based on the effectiveness of previous policies, and closely monitor the impact of the international economic and financial situation on the domestic market. They will conduct regular and open policy research and reserve. Since the launch of the "combination punch" of comprehensive debt, the work of replacing implicit debts of local governments has been solidly promoted and achieved positive results in promoting the clearance of local financing platforms. The 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2024 have been issued in the same year and will be fully utilized in the first half of 2025; As of the end of June, the 2 trillion yuan replacement bonds for 2025 have issued 1.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 90% of the annual quota, and 1.44 trillion yuan has been used. Next, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a series of incremental debt support policies, including replacement policies, to fully unleash the effects of incremental debt support policies and provide strong support for promoting the stable and far-reaching development of China's economy. ”Li Dawei, a first level inspector of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance and director of the Government Debt Research and Evaluation Center, stated at a press conference held by the Ministry of Finance on July 25th. Resolving debt risks remains an important task in the fiscal sector. The decision-making department has explicitly requested to actively and prudently resolve the risk of local government debt, strictly prohibit the addition of implicit debt, and effectively promote the clearing of local financing platforms in an orderly manner. This indicates a high-pressure regulatory situation of 'zero tolerance' for implicit debts of local governments and specific requirements for the transformation of urban investment. ”Zhou Guannan believes that it is necessary to gradually and in batches promote the exit of financing platforms to prevent systemic risks, and requires financing platforms to divest their local government financing functions to truly achieve market-oriented transformation of their business. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:China Securities Journal

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