Economy

Balancing 'Stable Growth' and 'Risk Prevention', the central bank clarifies seven key areas of work for the second half of the year

2025-08-04   

On August 1, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as "the central bank") held the second half of 2025 work conference and the promotion conference of the normal long-term promotion of the central inspection and rectification work (hereinafter referred to as "the conference"), which clearly defined that it would implement the moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen support for scientific and technological innovation, boost consumption, small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, further deepen financial reform and high-level opening up, prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, do a solid job in the second half of the year, and promote high-quality economic development. Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University, said in an interview with reporters that the central bank's focus in the second half of the year is to balance "stable growth" and "risk prevention", which also reflects the characteristics of "dual wheel drive" of technological innovation and financial stability, flexible application of policy toolboxes, and equal emphasis on structural reform. Continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, the central bank has identified seven key tasks in deploying the next stage of work, including continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, highlighting key directions for serving the real economy, preventing and resolving financial risks in key areas, steadily and prudently promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, advancing financial market reform and opening up, deepening international financial cooperation, and continuously improving financial management and service levels. In terms of continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, the central bank has clarified key tasks such as "comprehensively using various monetary policy tools, maintaining sufficient liquidity, guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable credit growth, and matching the growth of social financing scale and money supply with the expected goals of economic growth and overall price level", "activating stock, making good use of increment, and improving the efficiency of fund utilization". The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, analyzed in an interview with reporters that the monetary policy tone of this meeting will continue to be "moderately loose". Compared with the statement of "maintaining sufficient liquidity and stable growth of total financial volume" in the 2025 People's Bank of China working conference held at the beginning of the year, this conference said that "maintaining sufficient liquidity and guiding financial institutions to maintain reasonable growth of credit", and continue to support the financing of the real economy. In addition, the meeting proposed to "activate the stock, make good use of the increment, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization", which has increased the attention to the increment policy. For the work since the beginning of this year, this meeting believes that "financial support for the sustained improvement of the economy will increase", including lowering policy interest rates, structural monetary policy tool interest rates, and personal housing provident fund loan interest rates, promoting the decline of financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs, etc. Tian Lihui believes that from the perspective of aggregate tools, the central bank will flexibly use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and MLF (Medium Term Lending Facility) to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The key to the work in the second half of the year is to "activate the stock", that is, optimize the allocation of credit resources, prevent the idle of funds, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization. Highlighting the key direction of serving the real economy, since the beginning of this year, financial services have undergone structural transformation and improved the quality and efficiency of high-quality development. The central bank strengthens the overall planning of the five major financial articles. Focusing on supporting technological innovation, boosting consumption, small and micro enterprises, stabilizing foreign trade, strengthening policy coordination and cooperation, establishing a bond market "science and technology board", creating risk sharing tools for technological innovation bonds, providing services for consumption and elderly care refinancing, increasing the amount of refinancing for technological innovation and technological transformation, and supporting agriculture and small businesses. At the end of June, loans for technology, green, inclusive small and micro enterprises, elderly care industry, and digital economy industry increased by 12.5%, 25.5%, 12.3%, 43%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively. In Tian Lihui's view, in the first half of the year, the central bank's measures such as creating risk sharing tools for technology innovation bonds, providing services for consumption and pension refinancing, and increasing refinancing for technology innovation and technological transformation have strongly supported the high-quality development of the real economy. In the first half of the year, technology loans increased by 12.5% year-on-year, and elderly care industry loans increased by 43% year-on-year, indicating that funds have flowed into high growth areas. For the key direction of financial services for the real economy in the second half of the year, this meeting proposed to make good use of the policy of re lending for technological innovation and technological transformation, promote the rapid growth of loans for technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, and increase financing support for key areas such as "dual" and "two new". Support the resolution of structural contradictions in key industries and promote the upgrading of industrial quality. "Compared with the statement of the 2025 working conference of the People's Bank of China held at the beginning of the year that" further strengthen financial support for scientific and technological innovation and consumption promotion ", this conference further refined specific support areas and made more clear the key service direction of the real economy. ”It is expected that the central bank will increase its financial support for the field of technological innovation in the next stage: on the one hand, it will provide low interest loans to eligible scientific and technological innovation enterprises based on refinancing tools; On the other hand, it is also possible to add structural monetary policy tools to support science and technology innovation enterprises. Tian Lihui believes that the financing costs of science and technology innovation enterprises will further decrease in the future, accelerate the transformation of technological achievements, promote the upgrading of the industrial chain, and inject long-term growth momentum into the economy. In addition, the meeting also clarified to "maintain exchange rate flexibility, strengthen expectation guidance, and prevent exchange rate overshoot risks". It was clearly stated that considering the overall strong trend of the RMB exchange rate in the first half of this year, the central bank will pay attention to "stabilizing the exchange rate" and steadily promote the internationalization of the RMB. On the one hand, it will expand the use of the RMB in trade settlements, and on the other hand, it will attract global funds to further increase China's asset allocation. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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