In July, the Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, a decrease of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month, both of which remained above the critical point. China's overall economic output maintained expansion. On July 30th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting, pointing out the need to "maintain policy continuity and stability, enhance flexibility and foresight, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, effectively promote domestic and international circulation, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals and tasks, and achieve the successful conclusion of the 14th Five Year Plan". Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that achieving the growth target of 5.0% in the second half of the year is still a high probability event as policy effects continue to be released. The growth rate of high-tech manufacturing industry led the manufacturing PMI in July at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Affected by factors such as traditional off-season production, high temperature in some areas, rainstorm and flood disasters, the manufacturing landscape has declined. In July, the new order index reflecting market demand fell 0.8 percentage points month on month to 49.4%, once again entering a contraction zone. In the view of Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, there are two reasons behind this. Firstly, the fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment in the first half of the year were transmitted to exports, leading to a weakening of external demand. The index of new export orders in July fell by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Secondly, the previous policy of stabilizing growth has weakened its driving effect on the demand side, mainly reflected in the slowdown of household consumption growth and adjustments in the real estate market. Demand has slowed down, but production continues to expand. The production index in July was 50.5%, still in the expansion range. Among them, industries such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace equipment, and computer communication electronic equipment have both strong supply and demand, and the production index and new order index continue to be in the expansion range. It is worth mentioning that the PMI index for high-tech manufacturing, which represents the development of new quality productivity, is 50.3%. Although it has slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, it continues to expand. Driven by strong market demand and strong policy support, the current high-tech manufacturing industry not only leads in growth rate, but also has strong resilience to shocks. ”Wang Qing said. The PMI for high energy consuming industries in July was 48.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in business conditions, mainly driven by the upward trend in domestic commodity prices such as coal and steel. In addition, it is worth noting that the business prosperity varies. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and remained in the expansion range for three consecutive months, providing significant support for the overall manufacturing industry; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 49.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the economic situation improved for two consecutive months; The PMI for small businesses was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from last month to the lowest level since March. The prosperity of small and micro enterprises continues to be under pressure, and there is an urgent need to increase policy support. ”Wen Bin said. The entertainment industry PMI is at a high level of prosperity during the holiday period. In the non manufacturing sector, the service industry PMI index in July was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from June. On the one hand, the arrival of holidays has driven the PMI of industries related to residents' travel and consumption, such as transportation, culture, sports and entertainment, to a high level of over 60.0%, and the tourism related industry market is relatively active. ”According to Wang Qing's analysis, "On the other hand, the recent cooling of the real estate market may have a significant impact on the overall service industry outlook." With the arrival of summer, the monthly average scale of domestic flight execution and subway passenger traffic in the four major first tier cities increased in July, and the movie box office significantly increased month on month, indicating a high outlook for related service industries such as residents' travel and entertainment. The PMI index for the construction industry in July was 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. Specifically, according to Wen Bin's analysis, in terms of infrastructure construction, due to the adverse factors such as continuous high temperature in some areas, rainstorm and flood disasters in recent years, infrastructure construction has entered the off-season. In terms of real estate, after the mid year surge ended, the prosperity declined. High frequency data shows that the average transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities and the average transaction area of land in 100 large and medium-sized cities in July have both fallen compared to the previous month, and their absolute values are lower than the historical level of the same period, indicating that the real estate market is still in the bottom seeking stage. However, driven by the concentrated supply of high-quality land parcels in core cities, the premium rate of land transactions has rebounded month on month. On July 30th, the Central Political Bureau meeting pointed out that in the second half of the year, "macro policies should continue to be strengthened and timely efforts should be made. Wang Qing believes that this indicates that macroeconomic policies will continue to maintain a stable growth orientation in the second half of the year. Wang Qing predicted that in the second half of the year, depending on the actual situation, macro policies may introduce new major incremental measures in the direction of stabilizing growth, including more vigorous interest rate cuts, the "three arrows" of fiscal policy - raising the fiscal deficit ratio, increasing the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond, increasing the amount of new special debt, and more efforts to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. These policy measures can effectively boost domestic demand, fully offset the impact of slowing external demand, and ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target of 'around 5.0%'. ”Wang Qing said, "China's government debt ratio is at a relatively low level compared to major economies around the world, and the current price level is low. There is ample policy space in these areas