31 provinces' GDP for the first half of the year released: overall in line with expectations, the performance of the central region is impressive
2025-07-28
On July 26th, the Hainan Provincial Bureau of Statistics released the economic performance of Hainan Province in the first half of 2025. The data showed that according to the unified accounting results of regional gross domestic product (GDP), the total regional GDP of Hainan Province in the first half of the year was 370.185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% calculated at constant prices. At this point, the economic "half year reports" of 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the central government) have been released. How did the economic data of various regions perform in the first half of the year? What new features are presented? What are the key areas for promoting economic development in various regions in the second half of the year? The reporter interviewed several experts in the industry on relevant issues. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15th, the growth rate of 20 provinces is higher than the national level. Preliminary calculations show that the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of this year was 6605.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. In terms of growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in 20 provinces including Xizang, Gansu and Hubei in the first half of the year was higher than the national level (5.3%), and Xizang ranked first with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%. The year-on-year GDP growth rate of Guizhou and Tianjin in the first half of the year was on par with the national level. Nine provinces including Shanghai, Heilongjiang, and Chongqing are below the national level. Most provinces that have released data have exceeded their annual growth targets set at the beginning of the year in the first half of the year, confirming the good performance of the national economy in the first half of the year. ”Dong Zhongyun, Chief Economist of AVIC Securities, stated in an interview with reporters that provinces with higher economic growth rates than the annual target in the first half of the year mainly benefited from the upgrading of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries, as well as policies to promote consumption, such as Jiangsu, Shandong, and Jiangxi. It is worth mentioning that the economic "semi annual report" submitted by the central region is quite impressive. Except for Shanxi's GDP growth rate of 3.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year, the growth rates of Hubei (6.2%), Henan (5.7%), Hunan (5.6%), Jiangxi (5.6%), and Anhui (5.6%) all exceeded the "national line" and were all higher than their annual economic targets set at the beginning of the year. Although the year-on-year growth rate of Shanxi's GDP in the first half of the year was lower than the "national line", it also showed a significant increase compared to the year-on-year growth rate of 1.9% in the first half of 2024. In terms of total output, Guangdong ranked first with a GDP of 6872.54 billion yuan in the first half of the year, followed closely by Jiangsu, both exceeding 6 trillion yuan. Six provinces (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan) had a GDP exceeding 3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. The overall economic performance of various provinces in the first half of the year met expectations, and the trend of stable and positive development remains unchanged. ”Chen Li, Chief Economist of Chuancai Securities, stated in an interview with reporters that, specifically speaking, the total amount of economically developed provinces in the east is high, but the growth rate is relatively low. Guangdong Province's GDP in the first half of the year reached 6872.54 billion yuan, ranking first, while the growth rate was 4.2%, lower than the national level. The GDP growth rate of western provinces such as Sichuan is higher than the national average, and the gap in GDP total and per capita with eastern provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang has further narrowed. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, told reporters that the local GDP data in the first half of 2025 also reflects the new characteristics of innovation driven and accelerated industrial upgrading. High tech manufacturing and emerging industries (such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence) in Hubei, Anhui and other places have strong growth, promoting the optimization of economic structure. At the same time, the "dual wheel drive" characteristics of domestic demand and foreign trade are significant. Provinces such as Henan and Jiangxi have achieved economic recovery through policies such as consumer vouchers and foreign trade market expansion. In the second half of the year, various regions will continue to boost domestic demand. From a regional perspective, Mingming believes that currently, the gap between the east and the west is narrowing. The growth rate of the central and western regions (such as Hubei and Sichuan) is generally higher than that of the eastern region, and the acceleration of industrial transfer and infrastructure interconnection shows the rise of the central region and the acceleration of the western economy. In the future, we should strengthen cross regional industrial chain collaboration, guide the orderly transfer of labor-intensive and resource processing industries from the east to the central and western regions, and support the development of characteristic advantageous industries in the central and western regions. We should optimize policy support and regional cooperation mechanisms to form a regional economic pattern of complementary advantages and high-quality development. Dong Zhongyun stated that the key to the coordinated development of regional economy in the future lies in innovating regional cooperation mechanisms, breaking down barriers, accelerating the orderly transfer and upgrading of industries, and strengthening the construction of a unified national market. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, what are the key areas for promoting economic development in various regions? Chen Li stated that it is expected that in the second half of the year, various regions will continue to boost domestic demand through investment and consumption, further strengthening policy support for China's steady economic growth. In terms of investment, the financial bond issuance and expenditure will move forward, strengthen the support of ultra long term special treasury bond and special bonds, continue to promote the investment and construction of infrastructure projects such as water conservancy and transportation, and at the same time, strengthen the support for urban renewal, expand government led public investment, and fully release domestic demand. In terms of consumption, we will continue to strengthen the "trade in" policy, further unleashing the demand for equipment updates and consumer demand from the public. Dong Zhongyun stated that on the one hand, various regions should continue to expand domestic demand and promote consumption; On the other hand, we must adhere to the simultaneous development of industrial upgrading and the cultivation of new quality productivity, fully stimulating the boosting effect of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles on the economy. Mingming believes that firstly, we need to continuously stimulate the potential of domestic demand, and through innovative consumption scenarios, optimized consumption environment, and improved consumption policies, we can make the "main engine" of consumption turn faster and more steadily. At the same time, we need to accelerate the cultivation of new quality productive forces, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the development and growth of strategic emerging industries, especially in the fields of digital economy, green economy and other areas, to create new growth poles. Secondly, efforts should be made to stabilize the foundation of foreign trade, support enterprises in exploring diversified international markets, and enhance the resilience and security level of industrial and supply chains. Finally, it is important to focus on the key role of effective investment and plan and implement a number of major projects in areas such as new infrastructure, urban renewal, and livelihood projects, injecting strong impetus into the sustained and healthy development of the economy. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:Securities Daily
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