On July 21, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to release the new LPR quotation: 3.0% for 1-year varieties, and 3.0% last month; Varieties with a maturity of 5 years or more are reported at 3.5%, compared to 3.5% last month, and both remain unchanged. The LPR quotes for the two maturity varieties in July remain unchanged, in line with market expectations. ”Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed that the main reason is that recent macroeconomic data shows that the economy operated steadily and moderately strong in the second quarter, and the necessity of strengthening countercyclical regulation by guiding LPR quotes to decrease in the short term is not high. In addition, after the May interest rate cut, the policy interest rate has remained stable in the past two months, and there have been no significant changes in the factors affecting the LPR quotation point. Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, stated that with the sustained effectiveness of export driven policies and a package of stable growth policies in the early stage, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, and accumulated a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual growth target. In the second half of the year, GDP only needs to grow by 4.7% to achieve the annual target, and the pressure is relatively controllable. From the perspective of financial data, Wen Bin believes that in the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and social financing accumulated an increase of 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of social financing remained at a high level of 8.9%, and the growth rates of M1 and M2 both significantly increased in June. The good performance of financial data also makes it unnecessary to increase policies in the short term. In this context, policies will also flexibly grasp the intensity and pace, focus on making good use of existing policies, and ensure the smooth operation of the economy. It is expected to be in a policy observation period in the short term, and the LPR quotation will continue to remain stable in the future. ”Wang Qing pointed out. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, experts believe that there is still room for policy interest rates and LPR quotes to be lowered. It is expected that the next LPR quote reduction will occur at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. Wang Qing pointed out that the external environment still faces great uncertainty in the second half of the year. In the process of vigorously boosting domestic demand and "making greater efforts to promote the stabilization of the real estate market," there is still room for policy interest rates and LPR quotes to be lowered. Against the backdrop of low price levels, it is expected that the central bank will continue to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, which will drive down the LPR quotes of two maturity varieties. Furthermore, guiding the loan interest rates of enterprises and residents to further decline and stimulating endogenous financing demand is an important driving force for promoting consumption, expanding investment, and hedging against the slowdown of external demand in the second half of the year. In the second half of the year, the effects of competing for exports and re exports will weaken, and the growth rate of China's exports is likely to slow down. Domestic demand needs to be well hedged. Considering the market expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and the continued weakness of the US dollar, it opens up space for China to continue to lower reserve requirement ratios and interest rates. ”Wen Bin said. Wen Bin pointed out that under multiple balances, the expected total amount of monetary policy is moderate, and there is a high probability of further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the end of the third or fourth quarter. At that time, LPR quotes are expected to be lowered synchronously to safeguard the stability of the credit process. In terms of the real estate market, Wang Qing believes that policies to stabilize the market in the second half of the year need to be further strengthened. On May 7th, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the housing provident fund loan interest rate, opening up space for the later reduction of residential commercial housing loan interest rates. It is expected that the next LPR quotation reduction may occur around the beginning of the fourth quarter, and the magnitude of the reduction may be higher than 0.1 percentage points in May, reaching 0.2 percentage points. (New Society)