According to data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, China's import and export of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Among them, exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%; Imports amounted to 8.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%. Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director General of the General Administration of Customs, stated that in the first half of this year, China's foreign trade continued to move forward under pressure, with steady growth in scale and improvement in quality, and the achievements were not easy. However, it should also be noted that global unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, and the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment are increasing. In the second half of the year, China's foreign trade still needs to make arduous efforts to maintain stable growth. Since the beginning of this year, facing the complex and severe international situation, China's foreign trade has maintained strong resilience, and the scale of foreign trade has steadily increased. Data shows that in the first half of the year, China's import and export scale stood at a steady level of 20 trillion yuan, reaching a new historical high for the same period. From the quarterly trend, imports and exports in the second quarter increased by 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter, maintaining year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters. China's imports and exports have been running at over 10 trillion yuan for nine consecutive quarters, with an increase of over 600 billion yuan in imports and exports in the first half of this year compared to the first half of last year. ”Wang Lingjun said. Among them, in terms of exports, although external pressures and challenges continue to increase, China's exports still maintain a steady growth trend. In the first half of the year, the export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history, achieving a relatively fast growth of 7.2% year-on-year. From the perspective of foreign trade entities, all three major categories of enterprises have seen an increase in exports. In the first half of the year, private enterprises exported 8.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3%, foreign-funded enterprises exported 3.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, and state-owned enterprises exported 968.73 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%. According to Lv Daliang, spokesperson for the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, the number of enterprises with export performance in China has steadily increased in recent years. In 2015, 2019, and 2023, there were over 300000, 400000, and 500000 respectively, which means an increase of 100000 every four years. In the first half of this year, it continued to increase by 8.5%. From the perspective of export markets, both traditional and emerging markets are growing simultaneously. In the first half of the year, China's exports to traditional markets such as the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom grew steadily, while exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN, Central Asia, and Africa grew at double-digit rates. Overall, in the context of severe fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment in the first half of the year, China's exports were at a relatively high level of growth and showed significant resilience against shocks. ”Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, stated that the main reason behind this is that the United States launched a global trade war in April, which not only led to a prominent phenomenon of China's "export rush" to the United States in the first quarter, but also continued to ferment the effect of China's "export rush" to the European Union and ASEAN during the "temporary suspension" of global equivalent tariffs imposed by the United States in the second quarter, resulting in a significant shift in trade. This effectively offset the impact of the global trade slowdown in the second quarter and the decline in China's exports to the United States, promoting the overall export to continue to maintain rapid growth. In addition, in the first half of the year, facing severe fluctuations in the external economic and trade environment, the continuous introduction of domestic policies to stabilize foreign trade has effectively enhanced the resilience of China's exports to shocks. Private enterprises continue to lead foreign trade. As the main force of foreign trade, private enterprises have performed outstandingly in the field of import and export. Data shows that in the first half of the year, the import and export of private enterprises reached 1.248 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, accounting for 57.3% of China's foreign trade, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with both exports and imports growing. Wang Lingjun said, "Private enterprises continue to lead foreign trade. As of the second quarter of this year, the import and export of private enterprises in China have grown year-on-year for 21 consecutive quarters, and the growth rate continues to lead. Especially since the beginning of this year, private enterprises have overcome the adverse effects brought by the external environment, and the import and export scale in the first half of the year has exceeded 12 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with a growth rate 4.4 percentage points higher than the overall national average." At the same time, the innovation momentum of private enterprises is also continuously strengthening. In the first half of the year, more than 80% of the specialized, refined, and innovative "little giant" enterprises with import and export performance in China were private enterprises. The export of high-tech products by private enterprises increased by 12.5%. In addition, in the first half of the year, equipment manufacturing products accounted for half of the exports of private enterprises, and hard power products such as ships, automobiles, and specialized equipment achieved double-digit growth in exports. More and more private enterprises are growing and expanding in the international market. In the first half of the year, among the top 500 import and export enterprises in China, private enterprises have occupied 218 seats. ”Wang Lingjun said. What is the trend of foreign trade in the second half of the year? Overall, in the first half of this year, China's foreign trade has made steady progress, with a steady increase in scale and an improvement in quality. The results are not easy. ”Wang Lingjun said, but it should also be noted that global unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, and the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment are increasing. China still needs to make arduous efforts to maintain stable growth in foreign trade in the second half of the year. Given that there will still be a certain 'export rush' effect on the United States in July, foreign trade enterprises will continue to actively explore other overseas markets, and exports are expected to maintain year-on-year positive growth in July. ”Wang Qing said. However, Wang Qing also mentioned that as the "temporary suspension" of global equivalent tariffs by the United States approaches its end, the phenomenon of "grabbing exports" is receding, and the US tariff policy is causing a slowdown in global economic growth, overall external demand is weakening, and exports may face certain pressure. He believes that in the second half of the year, policies to stabilize growth and foreign trade will be further strengthened, with fiscal policy increasing efforts to promote consumption and investment. The central bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates, and targeted financial support policies for difficult foreign trade enterprises are expected to be introduced. The CICC Macro Research Report believes that in the short term, China's exports may still have some resilience, and uncertainty still lies in tariffs. It is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the third quarter, and there may be some pressure in the fourth quarter. In terms of imports, Wang Qing expects that the domestic stable growth policy will be significantly strengthened at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, which will have a certain supporting effect on the growth rate of imports. In the long run, China has a diverse and stable market, innovative and high-quality products, and adaptable foreign trade entities. The scale of foreign trade is expected to remain stable, and the structure of foreign trade is expected to continue to optimize. ”Wen Bin, Chief Economist of Minsheng Bank, said. (New Society)