In the first half of 2025 (January 1st to June 30th), London spot gold prices have risen by a cumulative 25.7%, marking the largest six-month increase since the second half of 2007. According to the interviewed experts, the price of gold has entered a volatile range recently due to factors such as the expiration of a large number of gold option contracts at the end of the season. In the long run, factors such as geopolitical conflicts, the weakening of the US dollar, and central bank purchases have continued to provide support for the gold price trend since the beginning of this year, and the gold price may continue to be in a volatile upward channel in the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the overall international gold price rose. From a phased perspective, the international gold price surged to a historic high of $3500 per ounce in April and then entered a volatile range in May and June. Ding Zhenyu, Senior Investment Advisor of Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Information Co., Ltd., stated in an interview with reporters that the price of gold in the first half of the year was mainly influenced by multiple factors such as hedging demand and the central bank's gold buying trend. At present, the gold price is fluctuating within the range of $3200/ounce to $3400/ounce, and the long short game is intensifying. The market's confidence in the US dollar continued to decline in the first half of the year, with the US dollar index falling by 10.7%, providing strong support for the rise in gold prices. ”Bai Xue, Senior Deputy Director of the Research and Development Department of Dongfang Jincheng, analyzed in an interview with reporters that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has also led to a high level of market risk aversion. Zhou Junzhi, Chief Macro Analyst at CITIC Securities, believes that in the first half of the year, the contradiction between the US fiscal and monetary policies became apparent, and the vulnerability of US credit assets was exposed, resulting in a market trend of "short US dollar credit assets and high gold". In this context, the demand for gold reserves by global central banks will remain high in 2025. According to the World Gold Council, in the first four months of 2025, central banks purchased a net of 256 tons of gold. From the situation in China, the data released by the People's Bank of China shows that by the end of May 2025, China's gold reserves will be 73.83 million ounces (about 2296.37 tons), an increase of 60000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month on month. This is also the seventh consecutive month since November 2024 that the People's Bank of China has expanded its gold reserves. The international gold price is still in a volatile upward channel in the second half of the year. ”Bai Xue believes that there will still be a demand for safe haven in the market in the second half of 2025, which will provide long-term support for gold prices. In addition, the willingness of global central banks to allocate gold remains strong. As the credit risk of the US dollar intensifies, central banks around the world will strengthen their gold reserve layout based on strategic security and asset allocation needs. The "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" released by the World Gold Council on June 17 shows that 95% of the surveyed central banks believe that global central banks will continue to increase their holdings of gold in the next 12 months; Nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves within the next year. The recent weakening of the US dollar index, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates within the year, will provide support for the rise in gold prices. ”Ding Zhenyu analyzed that. (New Society)