Think Tank

From the perspectives of historical depth, current dimension, future dimension, and governance logic - the "era code" of China's enormous economic development potential

2025-06-30   

In the first quarter of this year, while the global economy was still struggling to find its way under the clouds of unilateralism and protectionism, China's economy once again attracted worldwide attention with a steady growth rate of 5.4%. This data not only continues the growth trend of 5% in 2024, but also maintains a leading position among major economies in the world, with a sustained contribution rate of around 30% to global economic growth. From a historical perspective, the development potential of the Chinese economy is the accumulated momentum of a century of struggle, which has been steadily developed; From a practical perspective, the systemic advantages of the super large-scale economic system are fully highlighted; From a future perspective, the innovation wave driven by new quality productivity is surging forward; From the perspective of governance logic, it is a wise and steady approach that balances development and security. Historical logic: The development potential from standing up to becoming strong. Accumulated and developed history is the best textbook, and the development potential of the Chinese economy is rooted in the historical logic of a century of struggle. The practical verification of the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics: the leap from "catching up with the times" to "leading the times". Since the founding of the CPC in 1921, China's economic development has experienced a historic leap from "one poor and two white" to "the second largest economy in the world". Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we have focused on the new stage of development, implemented the new development concept, constructed a new development pattern, and promoted the Chinese economy to shift towards a high-quality development track. From 2012 to 2024, China's GDP grew from 53.9 trillion yuan to 134.9 trillion yuan, with an average annual real growth rate of 6.2%, and an average annual contribution rate of over 30% to world economic growth. The Chinese people have unprecedented confidence in the road, theory, system and culture, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation shows an unprecedented bright prospect. This confidence stems from the successful verification of the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics in economic development practice. The sustained release of institutional advantages: the governance efficiency of concentrating efforts to accomplish great things. The unique advantages of the socialist market economy system are the fundamental guarantee for China's economy to resist risks and sustain growth. Faced with the impact of the epidemic since 2020, global inflationary pressure in 2022, and geopolitical conflicts in 2023, the Party Central Committee has always adhered to the principle of "preventing the epidemic, stabilizing the economy, and ensuring safe development". Through a package of policies such as tax reduction and fee reduction, stabilizing the supply chain, and expanding domestic demand, the overall stability of economic operation has been achieved. In 2024, against the backdrop of major economies around the world growing at a rate generally below 3%, China's economy will "break through the trend" with a growth rate of 5%, fully demonstrating its institutional advantage of "playing a game of chess as a whole". The accumulation and accumulation of development experience: from "crossing the river by feeling the stones" to the sublimation of "system integration reform". Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economic development has accumulated valuable experience such as "gradual reform", "dual circulation interaction", and "combination of efficient market and proactive government". In the new era, reform has shifted from "individual breakthrough" to "system integration", and measures such as the construction of a unified national market, market-oriented allocation of factors, and "streamlining administration, delegating powers, and improving services" have been taken to continuously eliminate institutional barriers. The accumulation of these experiences not only provides a "methodology" for current economic growth, but also reserves a "toolbox" for future development. The fundamental support of people's power: upgrading from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend". The development potential of the Chinese economy is essentially the transformation of the driving force behind the aspirations of over 1.4 billion people for a better life. From industrial workers in the "third line construction" period to digital economy practitioners in the "Internet plus" era, from the "two bombs and one star" heroes to the "Chang'e" and "Tianwen" scientific research team, the people have always been the main force of economic development. Currently, the average length of education for the working age population in China has reached 11.3 years, the total number of research and development personnel has ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years, and the proportion of skilled workers in the employed population has increased to 26%. The talent advantage of a large number of high-quality workers and entrepreneurs is an important support for the Chinese economy. This leap from "population size" to "population quality" injects lasting momentum into long-term economic growth. Realistic foundation: The systematic advantages of the super large scale economic system fully highlight the super large scale market, complete industrial system, and policy synergy effects, which constitute the "realistic cornerstone" of China's economic development. Super Large Scale Market: The World's Most Promising Demand Magnet. China has a population of over 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of over 400 million, forming the world's largest and most growing domestic demand market. This' mega scale 'is not only reflected in quantity, but also in structural upgrading: new consumer demands such as new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and health and elderly care continue to be released, and the sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 10 million units in 2024, accounting for more than 60% of global sales. As evaluated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "China's super large market is the 'stabilizer' of global economic recovery." A complete industrial system is the 'key hub' of the global industrial chain. China is the only country in the world that has all 41 major industrial categories, 207 medium categories, and 666 subcategories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, and its manufacturing value added has ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years. This "full industry chain" advantage has enabled China to maintain its position as the "chain leader" in global supply chain fluctuations. Policy synergy effect: a precise toolbox for macroeconomic regulation. In the face of changes in the external environment, China's macro policies have always maintained a forward-looking, targeted, and effective approach. In 2024, in the face of slowing economic growth, the CPC Central Committee will timely deploy a package of incremental policies, including tax cuts and fee reductions of 1.2 trillion yuan, the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond to support major projects, and the expansion of "two new" (new technologies, new industries) and "two heavy" (major projects, key fields) policies, so as to make the economic operation out of the curve of "front high, middle low, and back up" and achieve the annual growth goal. In 2025, the policy toolbox will be further optimized: structural monetary policy tools will focus on technological innovation and green development, while fiscal policy will tilt towards people's livelihoods and new infrastructure, forming a policy synergy of "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods". Kinetic energy transformation: The innovation wave driven by new quality productivity is surging forward from "factor driven" to "innovation driven", and new quality productivity is reshaping the paradigm of China's economic growth. The explosive breakthrough of technological innovation: a leap from "following" to "running in parallel" and "leading". In recent years, China's technological innovation has entered a "golden period": the quantum computing prototype "Jiuzhang-3" has achieved global leading computing power, Chang'e-6 has completed the sampling and return of the far side of the moon, and the number of 5G base stations accounts for more than 60% of the world. In 2024, the R&D investment intensity will increase to 2.68%, and the global ranking of the National Innovation Index will rise to 10th place. Investment in high-tech manufacturing has become the main driving force for investment. This "explosive" breakthrough has accelerated China's transition from a "technology application powerhouse" to a "technology innovation powerhouse". The "multiplier effect" of the digital economy: the integration from "digital industrialization" to "industrial digitization". The digital economy is the core carrier of new quality productivity. The scale of China's digital economy has exceeded 50 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of GDP; The penetration rate of 5G users has reached 75.9%, and over 30000 smart factories have been built. In 2025, the "AI+" action will be further promoted, and new models such as "AI+consumption" and "AI+manufacturing" will emerge in endlessly: the penetration rate of intelligent connected vehicles will exceed 30%, the number of industrial Internet platform connecting devices will exceed 80 million, and the contribution rate of digital technology to economic growth will exceed 50%. The 'ecological dividend' of green transformation: a qualitative change from 'environmental cost' to 'green growth'. Under the "dual carbon" goal, the Chinese economy is undergoing a profound green revolution. In the first quarter of 2025, the installed capacity of wind and solar power will historically exceed that of thermal power, and the proportion of non fossil energy generation will reach 39.8%; The new energy industry has attracted global attention, with exports of photovoltaic modules and lithium batteries increasing by 35% and 42% respectively. Green transformation not only reduces environmental costs, but also gives birth to new industries and formats: commercial application of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology, green finance scale exceeding 25 trillion yuan, and ecotourism and circular economy becoming new growth points. The 'cluster effect' of new quality productivity: a transition from 'single point breakthrough' to 'system upgrade'. New quality productivity is not a breakthrough in a single technology, but a collaborative upgrade of technology, industry, and system. Currently, China has formed three major science and technology innovation clusters: Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area. National laboratories such as Zhangjiang in Shanghai and Zhongguancun in Beijing lead the way in original innovation, while "science and technology innovation cities" such as Shenzhen and Hefei have become the "source of new quality productivity". In 2025, new organizational models such as "Future Industrial Science and Technology Park" and "Innovation Consortium" will accelerate their implementation, promoting the integration of innovation chain, industry chain, capital chain, and talent chain. This' cluster effect 'has shifted the driving force of China's economic growth from' single point breakthrough 'to' system upgrading ', providing sustained impetus for high-quality development. Strategic determination: Smart governance that balances development and security, ensuring stability and achieving long-term success. In the face of changes in the world, the times, and history, the development potential of the Chinese economy stems from the strategic determination to "do our own things well". Strategic clarity in dealing with external challenges: grasping the overall situation in the midst of chaos. Currently, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, with unilateralism and protectionism on the rise. The global industrial and supply chains are facing challenges such as "risk reduction" and "friendly outsourcing". But the Chinese economy has always maintained strategic clarity: on the one hand, it has decisively countered bullying practices such as tariffs imposed by the United States and Canada, firmly safeguarding its own rights and interests; On the other hand, take the "the Belt and Road" initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as the starting point to expand diversified markets. In 2024, China's exports to ASEAN and Africa will increase by 10.2% and 8.7% respectively, and the "circle of friends" in foreign trade will continue to expand. Dialectical thinking of coordinating development and security: achieving "progress together" in "balance". China has always adhered to the principle of "balancing development and security": in terms of food security, the grain output has remained stable at over 1.3 trillion catties for nine consecutive years, and in 2024, it achieved a historic record of exceeding 1.4 trillion catties for the first time. In terms of energy security, the coal production in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.2026 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The exploration and development of oil and gas continued to increase, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption steadily increased; In terms of industrial chain security, the "chain leader system" is fully implemented, key core technology research and development is "unveiled and led", and the independent and controllable capabilities of key industrial chains are significantly enhanced. This "dialectical thinking" enables the Chinese economy to "ensure security in development and promote development in security". The 'value coordinates' centered on the people: achieving' sharing 'in' development '. The fundamental purpose of China's economic development is to enhance the well-being of the people. In 2024, 12.56 million new urban jobs will be created, and the per capita disposable income of residents will increase by 5.2% in real terms, which is basically synchronized with economic growth; In the first quarter of 2025, the momentum of health consumption and cultural tourism consumption is good, and tax data shows that investment in livelihood areas such as education and healthcare has increased by 15%. This people-centered development philosophy makes economic growth more warm and sustainable. Leading the 'great power responsibility' in global governance: contributing the 'Chinese solution' in 'win-win'. China has always been a contributor to global development and a maintainer of the international order. From proposing the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind to promoting the deepening and implementation of global development initiatives; From supporting the reform of the World Trade Organization to promoting the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, China has fulfilled its commitment to "take responsibility for human progress and global development" through practical actions. Looking back at the historical milestone of 2025, the development potential of the Chinese economy is not accidental“

Edit:Luo yu Responsible editor:Zhou shu

Source:Beijing Daily

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