On May 19th, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April. Wang Zhonghua, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained that in April, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of residential properties in various tier cities remained unchanged or slightly decreased compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, analyzed that the small spring market at the beginning of the year was mainly stimulated by policies, and buyers' long-term expectations for the market did not completely change due to short-term policy benefits. After the initial backlog of housing demand was concentrated and released during the Xiaoyangchun period, the market entered a brief demand vacuum period, and the subsequent momentum was insufficient, making it difficult for the Xiaoyangchun market to sustain. However, Zhang Dawei also stated that in recent months, there have been continuous measures to stop the decline and stabilize the real estate market, and there are signs of market stabilization in the first quarter of 2025. However, in the short term, the industry needs to achieve multiple repair chains in order to achieve a positive cycle of "stopping the decline and stabilizing". With the promotion of a series of policies to reduce housing costs, the enthusiasm of homebuyers to enter the market has increased. The demand for the real estate market, the income and confidence of homebuyers in 2025 will still need some time to recover, and are gradually bottoming out. The country's determination to rescue the real estate market has been fully reflected in policies, and the market expects more and more powerful policy releases to stabilize market confidence and avoid further adjustments. ”Zhang Dawei said. New houses: Hot cities show a stable trend of enterprises. According to simple arithmetic mean calculation, the price index of newly-built commercial residential properties in 70 cities across the country in April increased by -0.1% month on month and -4.5% year-on-year. The month on month value remains unchanged from previous months, and has been at a level of -0.1% for five consecutive months. The year-on-year increase data has further improved, indicating that the decline continues to narrow. In the view of Yan Yuejin, Vice President of Shanghai E-house Real Estate Research Institute, the data shows that the real estate market has been steadily improving for seven consecutive months. The housing price index, especially the same ratio, is generally improving. However, he also pointed out that various regions still need to continue to make efforts in the second quarter, especially in the aspect of "continuous consolidation". Specifically, in April, the sales prices of newly-built residential properties in first tier cities increased by 0.1% month on month, but remained unchanged. A year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, narrowing the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of newly-built residential properties in second tier cities remained unchanged compared to the previous month. The sales price of newly-built residential properties in third tier cities decreased by 0.2% month on month, with the same decline as last month. 2、 The sales prices of newly-built residential properties in third tier cities decreased by 3.9% and 5.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively. The year-on-year indicators of the three types of cities are actively improving. ”Yan Yuejin stated. It is worth mentioning that in April, although the index performance was weak, 22 cities saw a month on month increase in new housing, and some hot cities still showed a stabilizing trend. The top five rising house price indices are Dalian, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan. From the current performance of the real estate market, it can be seen that two types of cities are relatively strong. ”Yan Yuejin believes that one type is cities with high urban energy levels, such as Shanghai and Hangzhou; Another type is cities like Tianjin and Taiyuan, which have not experienced significant ups and downs in their markets and belong to cities with relatively stable supply and demand indicators in the past. In addition, Yan Yuejin emphasized that the year-on-year indicator of housing prices in Hangzhou has shifted from a decline to an increase, which means that the continuous favorable policies combined with the repair of urban fundamentals have objectively led to a real bottoming out and rebound of housing prices in some cities. Looking ahead to the future, Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that good houses will shift from high price improvement characteristics to popularization, that is, the supply of new houses will be fully "good house oriented", not limited to some high-end improvement properties, and the supply side reform will be fully effective. The standardization of residential projects has been raised above the bottom line standards, and in the future, the renovation of new houses and old residential areas will comprehensively improve the quality of new houses, activating the trend of new house transactions and property transfers. ”Li Yujia believes that "coupled with the relatively small inventory of new houses, the decline in new house transaction volume will slow down in the future, and the bottom of new house prices will begin to emerge. There is a trend of comprehensive stabilization of new house prices." Second hand housing: The year-on-year indicators in first, second, and third tier cities have all improved positively. According to simple arithmetic mean calculation, the second-hand housing price index in 70 cities across the country in April increased by -0.4% month on month and -6.8% year-on-year. Regarding the deterioration of the month on month indicators, Yan Yuejin believes that a large number of buyers who have subscribed to second-hand houses have been released, especially in combination with favorable policies for purchasing houses and in-depth adjustments in second-hand house prices. The year-on-year indicators have further improved. Yan Yuejin said, "The continuous improvement of second-hand housing data in the past has effectively restored the year-on-year indicators. Specifically, in April, the sales prices of second-hand residential properties in first tier cities decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. A year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, narrowing the decline by 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month. 2、 The sales prices of second-hand residential properties in third tier cities have all decreased by 0.4% month on month, with the decline expanding by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month. The year-on-year declines were 6.5% and 7.4%, respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively. Li Yujia believes that the widening decline in the second-hand housing price index is due to the recent increase in the number of second-hand housing listings. Taking Shenzhen as an example, according to data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, as of April 7th, there were a total of 73145 valid second-hand housing units for sale in Shenzhen, and the listing volume has increased by over 10000 units in the past two months. The number of listings in other hot cities is also increasing. In Li Yujia's view, there are three main reasons for the increase in listing volume: firstly, recent policies encourage housing improvement and incentivize second-hand housing owners to list their properties; Secondly, good housing projects are accelerating their market entry and reissuing, and some second-hand housing owners believe that the competitiveness of their houses in the market is weakening; Thirdly, in recent times, not only has there been an increase in the listing of old houses, but also an increase in the number of second-hand houses with improved layouts. From a year-on-year perspective, all three types of cities have shown positive improvements in their year-on-year indicators. Yan Yuejin believes that policies in various regions are proactive and effective. However, given the fluctuations in the month on month indicators, Yan Yuejin also pointed out that various policies need to be introduced in the field of second-hand housing in various regions in the future, especially to continuously enhance the exploration of consumer demand for second-hand housing. Looking ahead to the future, Li Yujia stated that with the effectiveness of the supply side reform of new houses, the acceleration of the second-hand housing transaction cycle driven by new houses, namely the acceleration of replacement demand, has a positive effect on stopping the decline of second-hand housing prices. In addition, the acceleration of urban renewal in the second half of the year has a positive impact on improving the efficiency of second-hand housing supply and reducing unnecessary listings. The future price decline of second-hand housing will also be alleviated. (New Society)