Despite facing a reduction in fiscal revenue since the beginning of this year, in order to promote economic stability, the proactive fiscal policy continues to push forward. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of Finance, the national broad fiscal revenue (the sum of national general public budget revenue and national government fund revenue) reached 9320.2 billion yuan in the first four months of this year, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.3%; The broad fiscal expenditure (the sum of the two accounts mentioned above) was 1.19717 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 7.2%; The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded the revenue by about 265.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 54%. This income and expenditure difference will be compensated through government borrowing and other funds. Zhang Jun, Chief Economist of China Galaxy Securities, told reporters that overall, the total amount and structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure in April continued the improvement trend of the previous month. With the issuance of government bonds as a prerequisite, strong expenditure was maintained, and the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure reached 7.2% (previously 5.6%), which also played an important role in supporting economic growth. In Zhang Jun's view, the difference between fiscal expenditure and revenue growth rate in the first four months of this year has reached a new high since 2023, demonstrating the proactive efforts of the government since the beginning of the year and providing support for the resilience of the economic data in April. Accelerating bond issuance to boost spending has been powerful. Since the beginning of this year, facing insufficient effective domestic demand, difficulties in production and operation of some enterprises, pressure on employment and income growth, coupled with factors such as the United States provoking tariff wars and trade wars globally, the downward pressure on the Chinese economy has increased. The more proactive fiscal policy that has been set this year urgently needs to be implemented earlier to stimulate aggregate demand. Observing the implementation of proactive fiscal policies, a key indicator is to maintain a certain scale and growth rate of fiscal expenditure, as well as the allocation of funds. In the first four months of this year, the broad fiscal expenditure approached 12 trillion yuan, maintaining a certain scale, and the growth rate continued to accelerate. The year-on-year growth rate in the first four months was 7.2%, which is close to the budgeted growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure for the whole year (about 9.3%) in the budget report at the beginning of the year. This reflects that fiscal expenditure is advancing and fiscal policies are more proactive. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first four months of this year, the national general public budget expenditure was 9358.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. This growth rate is slightly higher than the budgeted annual expenditure growth rate (4.4%), and the expenditure in the first four months completed 31.5% of the budget, making the expenditure progress the fastest since the same period in 2020. The national general public budget expenditure has made significant progress. The national general public budget expenditure is allocated to ensure and improve people's livelihoods, promote economic and social development, maintain national security, and ensure the normal operation of institutions. In the first four months of this year, expenditures on people's livelihoods and other related expenses maintained a rapid growth, and the government tightened the bottom line of the "three guarantees" (guaranteeing basic people's livelihoods, wages, and transportation). According to data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first four months of this year, social security and employment expenditures in the national general public budget accounted for approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%; Education expenditure is about 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Although infrastructure expenditure in the national general public budget declined year-on-year in the first four months, the decline is narrowing, and fiscal funds began to tilt towards infrastructure projects in April. At the same time, thanks to the accelerated issuance of local government special bonds and other support, local government fund expenditures have maintained rapid growth, which has also driven the construction of a number of major infrastructure projects. Infrastructure investment (5.8%) remained stable in the first four months. From January to April, the national government fund budget expenditure was 2613.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. This is precisely due to the accelerated issuance of special bonds and the launch of ultra long term special treasury bond. Overall, in the first four months of this year, the broad fiscal expenditure maintained a certain degree of expansion, relying more on the government to accelerate borrowing in addition to tax and other fiscal revenue support. Affected by economic downturn, low prices, and sluggish real estate market, the overall fiscal revenue in the first four months of this year was relatively sluggish. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, the national general public budget revenue for the first four months of this year was 806.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%. The national government fund budget revenue was 1258.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. In the national general public budget revenue, tax revenue, which is the most core and closely related to the economy, has declined (-2.1%). However, in April, tax revenue increased for the first time of the year (1.9%). Luo Zhiheng, Chief Economist of Yuekai Securities, told reporters that the better than expected tax revenue in April was mainly due to the offsetting effect of "export diversion" on the decline in exports to the United States; The "dual" and "two new" policies provide strong support for domestic consumption and investment; The high growth rate of new quality productivity production and investment has to some extent offset the downward trend of some traditional production. Due to factors such as the base number and the lagging entry of some land transfer income, although the decline in local land transfer income in government fund revenue narrowed in April, the overall real estate and land markets remained relatively sluggish, resulting in a significant decline in national government fund revenue. Due to the sluggish broad fiscal revenue in the first four months of this year, in order to ensure a certain expenditure intensity, it is necessary for the government to accelerate bond issuance. Therefore, judging from the progress of government bond issuance, it is significantly faster this year than last year. According to the data of the People's Bank of China, the net financing of government bonds in the first four months of this year was 4.85 trillion yuan, 3.58 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Taking the issuance of local government bonds as an example, according to the Ministry of Finance, China Bond Information Network and other data, in the first four months of this year, the total amount of local government bonds issued nationwide was about 3535.4 billion yuan, an increase of about 84% year on year. Both the scale and growth rate of bond issuance have reached a new high in recent years. The incremental policy for the second half of the year is expected to be implemented in accordance with the requirements of the Central Political Bureau meeting held on April 25th. It is necessary to accelerate the implementation of more proactive macro policies, make full use of more proactive fiscal policies, and moderately loose monetary policies. We will accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra long term special treasury bond. Since May, the progress of government bond issuance has further accelerated. Zhang Yu, Deputy Director of Huachuang Securities Research Institute, analyzed that as of May 20th, the net financing of government bonds reached 6.2 trillion yuan, with a bond issuance progress of 44.9%, significantly exceeding the bond issuance progress in the first five months of last year (22.5%). This is the support of the government's earlier efforts. Recently, China and the United States held high-level economic and trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland, and both sides agreed to significantly reduce tariffs within 90 days. Several interviewed experts believe that this reduces the probability of introducing fiscal increment policies in the short term, and the current focus of fiscal policy is still on accelerating the existing fiscal policies that have been determined during the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. This year's government work report data shows that the total scale of newly added government debt this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. Zhang Jun said that in terms of stock policy, this year's progress in issuing local special bonds was higher than that of last year, but after deducting chemical bond funds, there is still much room for improvement compared with 2022 and 2023. At present, there are about 3 trillion yuan of new local special bonds to be issued, and the issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond has just started, and there is also about 1.5 trillion yuan to be issued subsequently. Therefore, it is expected that the fiscal performance in the second quarter will continue to be an important support for economic resilience. "This year, we will accelerate the implementation of existing policies. Whether it is deficit, special debt, or ultra long term special treasury bond, we need to rely on forward efforts to promote new projects to form physical workload, promote the implementation of" two new "and" two new ", and promote the steady implementation of chemical debt. ”Luo Zhiheng said. Experts interviewed generally believe that in addition to implementing existing policies, fiscal increment policies can be reserved and timely introduced based on factors such as the progress of Sino US trade negotiations. Zhang Yu believes that considering that the 7.2% growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure in the first four months of this year is significantly higher than his predicted annual growth rate (3.4%~5.1%), and the cumulative net financing of government bonds is also significantly "excessive" year-on-year, if there is no significant improvement in the income side within the year, the government needs to maintain its strength or increase debt. The second quarter government bonds experienced a second acceleration, which means that the probability of implementing the incremental debt policy in the second half of the year has increased. According to previous data, incremental debt policies were mostly introduced from the end of June to the end of October. The focus of this year's incremental debt may be in the central government. It is possible to increase the treasury bond (special treasury bond) within the budget, or to supplement the capital by quasi finance beyond the budget. (New Society)