Consumption vitality and investment opportunities' two-way rush 'multidimensional data outline a new picture of expanding domestic demand
2025-05-26
The policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods continues to be effective, and products such as cars, home appliances, and mobile phones remain popular. Since the launch of the "618 Shopping Festival", promotional activities on e-commerce platforms have gradually heated up, and the popularity of new consumer areas such as pets and trendy toys has grown rapidly. At the same time, the consumer sector in the capital market is relatively active, and investors' recognition continues to rise. Experts believe that under the context of policy support and demand expansion, localized and diversified consumer forces are rising, new consumption drivers are constantly emerging, domestic demand potential continues to be stimulated, and it has attracted the attention of capital market investors. Since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have been vigorously promoting the implementation of the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods, and the results have continued to show. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of May 22, 48.848 million consumers have purchased 51.483 million digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 143.26 billion yuan. In terms of home appliance retail, from September 2024 to April 2025, the retail sales of home appliances have maintained double-digit growth for eight consecutive months. Multiple e-commerce platforms launched their annual "618 Shopping Festival" in mid to late May, using a combination of trade in policies and platform discounts to promote sustained sales of mobile phones, home appliances, and other products. On May 22nd, JD.com launched the "Enthusiast Surprise Day" focusing on 3C products. On that day, the transaction volume of sports cameras and their accessories increased by more than three times year-on-year, the transaction volume of gaming laptops and high-end fever gaming assembly machines increased by more than 110% year-on-year, and the transaction volume of open headphones increased by more than 100% year-on-year. In the first 4 hours of the "Tmall 618" sales, the number of national subsidies received increased threefold compared to last year's "Double Eleven", and sales of home appliances, home decoration, home furnishings, and 3C digital brands broke records. In terms of automobiles, sales steadily increased in April, while sales of new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of passenger cars in April was 1.755 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and the sales volume of new energy passenger cars was 905000, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that since this year, China's economy has shown a positive trend and social confidence has continued to improve. Driven by multiple factors such as policy incentives and technological upgrades, the vitality of the automotive market continues to be released. Wen Ji, Chief Analyst of the Automotive Industry at Fangzheng Securities Research Institute, stated that this year, car companies such as BYD, Geely, Chery, and Changan have successively released intelligent driving assistance systems and solutions, continuously optimizing industry supply and driving high-speed growth in sales of new energy vehicles. April is the traditional off-season for automobile sales. Against the backdrop of policy support and supply optimization, industry sales are expected to achieve month on month growth in May. The Ministry of Commerce will accelerate the implementation of the special action to boost consumption and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of the domestic circulation. Upgrade commodity consumption, implement the policy of exchanging old for new consumer goods, organize pilot reforms in automobile circulation consumption, and make good use of platforms such as CIIE and Consumer Expo to promote consumption. ”The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, He Yong, previously stated. The accelerated rise of new consumption, pets, and trendy toys are high-frequency words in the "618" battle report of e-commerce platforms, and they are also hot investment sectors in the capital market recently. Its economy continues to heat up. In the first hour of the Tmall 618 shopping festival, 653 pet brands saw a year-on-year doubling in transactions. Wang Yanjun, Chief Analyst of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry at Guotai Haitong Securities, stated that in the "Tmall 618" pre-sale 4-hour transaction list released by Tmall Pet, the top four are all domestic brands, with leading brands such as Maifudi and Fregat from Guaibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares ranking high in sales, demonstrating the market competitiveness of domestic pet brands. The sales situation of trendy toys and the performance of related companies are also quite impressive. During the "Tmall 618" period, four toy and trendy toy brands achieved triple digit growth in sales data. In terms of the company, Bubble Mart's overall revenue in the first quarter increased by 165% -170% year-on-year, with the Chinese market growing by 95% -100% and the overseas market growing by 475% -480% year-on-year. According to the prospectus submitted by Card Game Limited to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in April, its operating revenue will exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant increase in revenue from collectible cards. The Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption proposes to support the development of original intellectual property (IP) brands and promote consumption of anime, games, esports, and related derivatives. Kong Rong, co director of Tianfeng Global Forward Industry Research Institute, stated that in the long run, the expansion of IP monetization channels in the trendy gaming industry is expected to continue contributing to performance growth. Health consumption is also favored. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of sports and entertainment products by units above designated size increased by 23.3% year-on-year in April. Smart technology promotes rapid growth in health consumption. According to value-added tax invoice data, sales revenue of health monitoring equipment represented by smart bracelets, blood pressure monitors, blood glucose monitors, electrocardiogram monitors, etc. increased by 41.6% year-on-year in the first quarter. With the expansion of health consumption scale, the confidence of related enterprises has increased. The "Annual Development Report of China's Sports Goods Industry (2024)" recently released by the China Sports Goods Industry Federation shows that sports goods enterprises are more optimistic about their development in 2025 compared to 2024. The sports goods e-commerce market continues to have a high growth trend, and consumer demand is still in an expansion period. Wei Jixing, Chief Analyst of Open Source Securities Strategy, introduced that since the beginning of this year, the sub sectors leading the rise in A-shares have mainly been consumer goods, such as clothing, shoes and hats, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, snacks, etc. Market participants have noticed that among the mainland companies listed overseas this year, there has been a significant increase in companies from the consumer sector, especially in the new consumer sector. The situation in the primary and secondary markets indicates that the recognition of the development prospects of China's consumer market by domestic and foreign investors has significantly increased. This is not only due to greater policy support, but also reflects the long-term trend of optimizing China's economic structure, "said a market analyst. Recently, multiple cities such as Shanghai, Chengdu, and Changchun have released comprehensive measures to boost consumption, with increasing policy synergy and intensity. New consumption is an important support for promoting consumption expansion and leading consumption innovation. Tailoring new consumption to local conditions has become a driving force in many places. The Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Chengdu in 2025 proposes to develop the economy (brand) of the host people, establish 800 first stores in the city by 2025, hold 100 high-level debut events such as the first exhibition, create 50 first economic landmark carriers, and cultivate 110 new consumer brands; The Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption in Shanghai proposes to enrich self consumption, support the development of health and wellness, interest courses, stress relief therapy, pet companionship and other business formats. Resident income is the premise and foundation of consumption, while social security and public services are important factors affecting consumption. Zhao Wei, Chief Economist of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, believes that in the short term, income pressure and supply constraints are the key factors restricting consumption recovery. Institutional policies such as subsidies to increase the income of special groups, improving income distribution mechanisms, strengthening social security, and maternity subsidies can be implemented to promote residents' income growth and reduce their burden. Multiple regions have proposed targeted measures to ensure fertility and child rearing. The Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Changchun City (Draft for Soliciting Opinions) proposes to increase the strength of maternity protection, implement national childcare subsidies and provincial second and third child birth rewards. Since the beginning of this year, supportive policies have continued to tilt towards consumption and technology. ”Wei Jixing said that the marginal expenditure of the government on the consumption sector may continue to increase in the future, and it is expected that consumption will continue to grow. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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