After the release of the Joint Statement of the China US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks, the export tariffs on Chinese steel and steel products to the United States were reduced to 65% and 63%, respectively. Due to the slight easing of steel tariffs during the 90 day exemption period and the limited total amount of steel exports from China to the United States, Wang Guoqing, director of the Lange Steel Research Center, believes that this round of US tariff adjustments may support the resilience of indirect steel exports. According to the foreign trade data released by the customs for the first four months, China's steel exports continue to show a growth trend. In April, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%; Imported steel reached 522000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%. From January to April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%; Imported steel reached 2.072 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. When analyzing the trend of steel exports, Wang Guoqing said, "Currently, China's steel export price advantage still exists, but the year-on-year increase in overseas steel supply will pose certain constraints on the external demand space for steel in China. According to the monitoring data of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, as of May 8, the export quotation (FOB) of hot rolled coils in India, Türkiye and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was US $595/ton, US $550/ton and US $460/ton respectively, while the export quotation (FOB) of hot rolled coils in China was US $462/ton. The situation of overseas supply is that in March, the total crude steel production of 69 countries included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 166.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. According to monitoring data from the Lange Steel Research Center, in March, crude steel production in regions other than China was 73.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the global manufacturing index continues to decline, and the external demand sentiment remains weak. Wang Guoqing pointed out that the export order index of China's steel industry continues to decline in the contraction range, and the inhibitory effect of intensified trade frictions on steel exports will gradually become apparent. In April, the global manufacturing index showed a downward trend. The global manufacturing PMI for April released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Morgan Stanley's global manufacturing PMI fell slightly in the expansion range in April, at 49.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The sustained weakness of the global manufacturing industry reflects the pressure on the global economy. Affected by the excessive tariffs imposed by the United States, the risk of global economic downturn is gradually increasing. The Purchasing Managers' Index of China's Manufacturing Industry in April, jointly released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, showed that the new export order index of China's manufacturing industry in April was 44.7%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The trend of demand contraction caused by changes in the external trade environment continues to emerge. The export order index of Chinese steel enterprises also continues to operate within the contraction range. The new export order index of steel enterprises in April surveyed by the China Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee was 41.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The new export order index of steel circulation enterprises surveyed by China International Capital Association Lange Steel Network was 43.7%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the previous month. The situation of trade frictions is also not optimistic. On April 3rd, the Foreign Trade Secretariat of the Brazilian Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services issued a preliminary anti-dumping determination on galvanized and aluminum zinc coated coils originating in China; On April 21st, India announced a temporary tariff of 12% on some imported steel products to protect domestic steel manufacturers from the adverse effects of the surge in imports; On April 22, Canada Border Service released an announcement to initiate anti-dumping investigations on carbon steel wire and alloy steel wire originating in or imported from China, India, Italy, Malaysia, Portugal, Spain, Thailand, Türkiye, Vietnam and Taiwan, China; On April 24th, the South Korean Ministry of Planning and Finance announced the decision to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled carbon steel or alloy steel medium and thick plates originating in China, with tax rates ranging from 27.91% to 38.02%. In addition, many countries are also conducting strict inspections on the origin and transit trade. Wang Guoqing believes that based on the easing of the foreign trade environment, China's steel exports are expected to maintain some resilience in May and June, but the momentum of trade protection will have a restraining effect on subsequent steel exports.